Last year I said that the trade community was on the cusp of celebrity as more and more people were learning about (and paying attention) to our formerly arcane world of anti-dumping, 321 duties, rules of origin, tariff barriers and the like.
Love him or hate him, President Trump has shined a giant spotlight on international trade, and as most of us know, our “industry” now is in the headlines. Every. Single. Day.
There is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding big issues — for example, US tariffs and the Chinese response to those tariffs — but we do know the administration is committed to leveling the playing field with our trading partners. We know NAFTA is no more — but we don’t know if the USMCA will make it through Congress.
America seems to be undergoing a massive shift from a “Wall Street Economy” fueled largely by tech stocks to a “Main Street Economy” with significant economic indicators that American manufacturing is making a major comeback. Look at the big drops in the stock market in late fall 2018 and note that the decline by and large came from tech sector big guns like Facebook and Alphabet and not the manufacturing sector.
Almost all the economic indicators are trending positive. The large multinational banks are doing well, yet smaller credit unions and community banks seem to be lending and flourishing free of much of the Dodd Frank regulatory framework.
Imports are holding their own despite fiscal concerns and the tariffs. Also, from what I hear, international trade lawyers continue to prosper. So … what do I see?
Interesting times ahead for international trade in 2019. Interesting times.