What is a “black swan” event”? The term was coined in the second century AD, when a black swan was described as a bird so rare that it did not exist.
In 2007, Nassim Nicholas Taleb modernized the definition, referring to a black swan event as a truly unprecedented outlier, outside of the realm of regular expectations, extreme in its impact, and rationalized in hindsight as predictable.
In 2020, COVID-19 is often described as a black swan event due to the outsized impact that it has had on human lives, world economies, and global trade activities. However, looking back just one century to when the Spanish Flu took approximately 50 million lives and caused untold pain and economic disruption, we realize COVID-19 is not without precedent. Neither is the supersized slump and surge of cargo and commerce that are a byproduct of the pandemic’s impact on today’s global trade.
Resilience, quick response, and adaptability are attributes that must be scaled up to meet today’s challenges of the ever-growing trade levels. The knowledge and experience gained from COVID-19’s impact must be shared with the next generation of individuals pursuing careers in international trade through education and advice.
CII, through its world-renowned scholarship program, in partnership with its ever-growing community of sponsors and educational institutions, is committed to continuing its support of students pursuing education in international trade. With the inevitability of future change, including more Black Swan events, CII will adapt to and thrive in the ever-evolving trade environment and will continue to support and invest in worthy students in the future.