A year ago, the mood in the industry was one of cautious optimism. Today we can still use that term but with a bit more caution. The past 12 months have seen the turmoil in the maritime industry intensify.
The outlook for growth in world GDP, merchandise trade and seaborne shipments looks uncertain with many downside risks, given the reluctant growth in demand and the fragile recovery in developed economies. The silver lining is in the steady, if slow, rise in south-south trade. The world container throughput share of developing markets, which rose to 71.9 percent in 2014, continues this trend. Our experience in Africa, Asia and Latin America also confirms this.
The challenge for container terminal operators is not one of growth as global container trade is projected, by Drewry, to rise by 3.3 percent in 2016, but in the handling patterns mega-ships have created. Servicing some of these ships would need up to 6,000 moves in 24 hours, one carrier says. Not many terminals are equipped to do this, while upgrade aspirations remain hampered by funding constraints.
The falling trade between countries could force major ship operators to continue idling some of their big ships, affecting profitability. Ship operators can also expect increased pressure from shippers who are yet to see the promised economies of scale translate into benefits. The return of the sub-8,000-TEU vessels cannot be ruled out.
There are new regulations on the horizon that require the industry to invest in environmental technologies to tackle issues such as emissions, waste and ballast water treatment.
But the key to all our futures is new thinking with innovation fundamental to what we do. Five trends will affect almost all aspects of trade and logistics: robotics and automation; autonomous vehicles; the Internet of Things and big data; simulation and virtual reality; and cybersecurity.