The primary question for international traders right now is what’s next? Let’s focus on executive branch action as we attempt to divine the meaning of the existing smattering of tea leaves. President-elect Trump’s initial transition video mentions the steel industry and auto manufacturing, withdrawal from TPP in favor of bilateral agreements and curbing immigration visa abuses, among others, as actions for his first 100 days in office.
To continue leading when it comes to innovation, US companies must be able to draw the best talent regardless of location. If existing visa programs are sharply reduced, how does that dynamic change?
Next, should we be concerned about Customs and Border Protection and its Partner Government Agencies being able to fully launch the Automated Commercial Environment by year-end? What about export reform? Both of these efforts benefited greatly through executive orders and the Border Interagency Executive Council.
There are other topics worth focusing on as indicators of future policy — Iran and Cuba. As this article was written, Fidel Castro had died. Trump stated he wants to close the embassy in Cuba and return to the former relationship. Will Castro’s death change that? With Iran, will he pull back from the JOCPA? If the answer to either question is yes, how and when, and what replaces them in terms of future US policy?
The last key indicator may be China. Will it be declared a currency manipulator? Will a trade war occur?
Collectively, we will be trying to sort out future policies for some time. Nonetheless, business will continue and goods will keep flowing. Beyond that, it’s really anyone’s guess what will happen in a Trump administration, so check executive orders as indicators of the new normal.