The market will be weaker than in the previous two years but still on sound levels. We expect further adjustment of freight rates at a slower pace than last year, especially in Asia. Cargo volumes in many industry segments — like oil and gas or mining — are expected to stay rather stable, except for wind power, which we see lagging behind expectations until the end of 2024. Overall, earnings will still be decent, especially when compared to 2010–19. While the bulk and container segments put some pressure on the MPP sector, the shortage in the roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) sector is somewhat balancing this out. We remain optimistic in the medium and long term as the tonnage supply will be tight.
Current newbuildings activity does not have the potential of causing overcapacity as in bulk or container markets. We ourselves are replacing older tonnage with newbuilds, but as older vessels leave, our fleet will not expand remarkably. The age structure of the world’s multipurpose fleet will only see marginal influence from the current orderbook, while EEXI and CII will also influence fleet sizes.
The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) coming into force for shipping on January 1, 2024, represents a factor of uncertainty. Shipping — and the entire project sector — must adapt to additional costs, which, ultimately, will have to be borne by those ordering transportation from, into or within the EU. There still appears to be a need for more information and transparency on what EU ETS means for customers and their cargoes.