U.S. GDP growth this year will be modest as the economy shifts from recession to a low-growth norm. Economic uncertainty will keep businesses focused on balance sheet deleveraging with specific emphasis on cost management, revenue enhancement and reinvestment.
Freight demand will improve gradually during the year as consumer confidence builds slowly and inventory restocking levels increase. Freight tonnage will outpace overall economic growth, resulting in tight truck capacity, particularly in the full truckload segment.
The recession forced equipment and drivers out of the market. It is estimated that the Comprehensive Safety Analysis 2010 will cause another 5 to 10 percent of the driver population to be lost, further tightening capacity. Hiring and retaining drivers will be more expensive, forcing financially weak carriers out of business, taking even more capacity out of the market. These effects will begin to be felt in 2011, resulting in strong pressure on shippers for higher rates.
Shippers will seek to enter longer-term agreements with truckload carriers that lock in capacity and assure fulfillment at predictable prices.
It will be a year of classic supply and demand positioning.