University of Denver

In 2009, we will not have to talk about congestion or peak-season issues, given the near certainty of a severe recession brought about by the current financial crises. However, there is always opportunity that comes along with adversity for those clever enough to find it. In this case, the opportunity is likely to take the form of the next government stimulus package being considered to address the current financial mess. The results are in on the original $150 billion in stimulus, which took the form of direct tax rebates. This appeared in the GDP numbers largely in the second quarter, and the thought is that the results were temporary and transitory — $150 billion that disappeared into the mall of recession. More recently, the Chinese announced a $586 billion stimulus package aimed at transportation infrastructure. The idea was to create jobs and have a long-lasting impact on the productivity of the country and its related ability to compete in the world. Admittedly, back in the spring, the U.S. was looking for a quick hit. That is no longer the issue, given the unemployment rate and what we now know about the immediate future. The Chinese economy is smaller than ours, and its surface transportation infrastructure is not as well developed. However, it would seem that if the Chinese can spend more than $500 billion on basic infrastructure at a time like this, then the U.S. could spend similar amounts fine-tuning and maintaining our own surface transportation network. Such spending would not have been considered in a more ordinary business-as-usual economy. However, given the current environment, the ripple effects of spending on infrastructure, the productivity benefits and competitive benefits of a more fluid transportation system, it makes sense to invest in this kind of long-term benefit this year.