U.S. Merchant Marine Academy

As we enter an unprecedented era of fiscal uncertainty worldwide, pontification of its impact on the transportation sector is a natural outcome. While one could argue that although the movement of essential commodities will continue unabated, overall trade volumes will decline as current statistics already imply. We are bound for a period of “back-to-basics” trends in shipping and transportation, as is the consumers’ reticence from discretionary spending. Shippers and carriers should get used to shrinking margins and uncertainties galore. The unfortunate timing of the impending delivery of new tonnage worth half a trillion dollars does not bode well for shipowners, in general, and the liner operators, in particular. New shipping loans will be few and far between. Shipowners’ operating and voyage costs will continue to escalate, with declining bunker prices being more than offset by a rejuvenated push toward the greening of ocean shipping and environmental mandates with full blessings of the new U.S. administration. The market conditions will have a direct impact on transportation workers across the board. I anticipate many individuals to strategize their personal stake during the market lull and to sharpen their skills through higher education in myriad fields related to global supply-chain management. This should give a major boost in graduate school enrollments, especially for those institutions of higher education that offer distance-based programs. Although the placement of traditional college graduates will take a beating for the next couple of years, the career opportunities for graduates of reputable merchant marine academies will be a stark exception. The current worldwide manning shortage in the shipping industry will continue, albeit tempered by demand conditions. Although we may not be at immediate risk for laying up ships because of the shortage of skilled manpower, the shortage of skilled merchant mariners will continue to be a vexing global dilemma.