Vickerman & Associates LLC

The more things change, the more port and intermodal competitive principals remain the same. Consistent reliable service, competitive freight rate and in-transit velocity remain competitive hallmarks for successful freight mobility. Despite the current economic reports of global meltdown, doom and gloom, several major industry organizations have remarkably similar expectations for the recovery of world containerized trade growth. Several major economic forecasts predict that world trade will come out of its slump late this year or in 2010. The World Bank recently released world trade growth estimates indicating a recovery in 2009 reaching previous levels attained in 2007, and a projection that would have the world growth rate at 8.4 percent in 2010. Emerging economies are witnessing sustained trade growth despite the advanced economies’ poor performance. Emerging economies account for 40 percent of the global economy. Half of today’s growth rate is due to China and India alone. China’s GDP growth for January-September 2008 stood at 9.9 percent, a 2.3 percent dip from the previous year, and slightly down from the 10.6 and 10.1 percent growth in the first and second quarters of 2008. With trans-Atlantic exports expected to grow substantially, some shipping lines may introduce new vessel capacity into this trade. Export freight rates on the trans-Atlantic have increased to a level where the eastbound is now dominant and has become the head-haul for logistics movements in this trade lane. Last, but not least, U.S. exports are expected to show 2008 growth of 18 to 23 percent with major destinations being Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea. U.S. manufactured exports in August were up 15 percent over August 2007; at the start of September 2008 they were up 16 percent over the same period of 2007.