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Thomas D. Perdue

The turbulence of the past year is behind us, but unfortunately the poor economy will continue to depress freight demand throughout 2009. Businesses will generally be in a cost-cutting mode, lowering their risk profiles through layoffs, divestiture of unprofitable divisions and vendor price pressure. Price sensitivity will put substantial downward pressure on trucking and ocean rates, while rail prices will be more stable. De-leveraging, regulation and transparency will be daily themes played out in public and private sectors. There will be changes in the financial market regulatory environment. It will be difficult for lawmakers to balance ideological and political agendas with capital market forces that are actually working. The tendency will be to over-regulate, thereby further challenging innovation and growth. A number of trucking companies will not survive the lethal combination of slumping freight demand and tightening credit markets. Shippers will require more visibility to carriers’ financial condition when making procurement choices, further stressing the survival of those carriers that lack liquidity and access to capital. Merger-and-acquisition volume will be substantially less than in previous years. Difficulty in determining accurate valuations and limited access to financing will keep many potential acquirers on the sidelines. But this same lack of liquidity and capital constraints may present unprecedented opportunities for those companies with strong balance sheets and cash positions. Former General Electric CEO and now business icon Jack Welch recently said it best, “Now is the time to buy or bury your competition!” It will be a year of stress and uncertainty