One of the key mantras of good entrepreneurship is “don’t put all your eggs into one basket.” In 2022, the Europeans learned what happens if one does not adhere to this rule and the consequential impact on the macroeconomic environment and the energy markets is well-known.
The European-dominated multi-purpose vessel (MPV) and breakbulk market is strongly affected by the due conclusions that (hopefully) will be made after learning this tough lesson. The unlawful Russian war on the Ukraine and the steadily increasing tension in the Far East will make many market stakeholders reconsider various plans and decisions. This may cause changes to well-established supply chains and induce reconsideration to where the necessary supply of new MPV vessels will come from. More than 25 percent of the MPV fleet will reach the end of the economic lifespan within the next five to ten years, and there is only a capacity of three percent of the fleet in the orderbook. Keeping in mind the basket and the eggs, it is notable that almost 100 percent of this orderbook will be built in one single country, which is right in the center of the above-mentioned geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, a huge portion of the MPV fleet is owned, controlled, and operated from the same country. These ships are essential to meet the political targets for the green energy transition as they form the backbone of the transportation of the required technology. In 2023, the key task for the industry will be to discuss and to establish solutions to reduce potential geographical cluster risks and to deal with the challenges of a volatile geopolitical environment. This will take great efforts, but adapting to challenges was always one of the key abilities of our sector.