Some US-based shippers are racing to beat the April 9 imposition of new tariffs on most goods, while others are holding back product in Asia on the chance the levies will be reduced by President Donald Trump, whose tariff implementation strategy in recent weeks has been marked by a large dose of impulsiveness.
But any shipper celebrations over potentially lower rates in a cooling market will be tempered by concerns about border congestion as US customs will now be tasked with processing millions of de minimis imports every day.
There is a seasonal element to the second quarter increase in capacity deployed on the trade, but the reluctance by ocean carriers to withdraw capacity comes amid increasing signs of a price war.