<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As damage from Helene and Milton is being tallied, logistics experts say the storms won’t do much to accelerate spot and contract truckload pricing in the long term. </div>

As damage from Helene and Milton is being tallied, logistics experts say the storms won’t do much to accelerate spot and contract truckload pricing in the long term.

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<div>The damage caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton will take months to fully repair, but the impact on freight markets and truckload pricing will not be as great as initially believed, logistics experts told the Journal of Commerce. “We will see an immediate increase in relief activity, and that will drive an inbound spot market surge” in the areas affected by Helene and Milton, Andy Dyer, CEO at Atlanta-based third-party logistics provider (3PL) AFS Logistics, said in an interview Thursday. However, despite <a>increases in spot market pricing</a> for dry-van, refrigerated and flatbed tractor-trailers last week, Dyer doesn’t believe relief efforts...

The damage caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton will take months to fully repair, but the impact on freight markets and truckload pricing will not be as great as initially believed, logistics experts told the Journal of Commerce. “We will see an immediate increase in relief activity, and that will drive an inbound spot market surge” in the areas affected by Helene and Milton, Andy Dyer, CEO at Atlanta-based third-party logistics provider (3PL) AFS Logistics, said in an interview Thursday. However, despite increases in spot market pricing for dry-van, refrigerated and flatbed tractor-trailers last week, Dyer doesn’t believe relief efforts from the back-to-back hurricanes will siphon off enough trucks to drive up spot pricing beyond the battered Southeast. “With utmost compassion for all the individuals affected, the regions where these hurricanes hit are consumption markets, not production markets,” unlike Houston, which was flooded by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Dyer said. ”I don’t see this as the beginning of a long-term freight-rate recovery” similar to the one seen in 2017 after Harvey and Hurricane Irma struck Texas and Florida within a month of each other,” he said. “It’s what everybody wants, but this isn’t it.” Dyer was joined by others who rejected a simple comparison between the back-to-back hurricanes of 2017 and this year’s Helene and Milton. “We were already in a bullish truckload spot market when Harvey struck [in August 2017], with freight volumes rising,” said Jason Miller, the Eli Broad professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University and a Journal of Commerce analyst. The current spot market is still traveling along a pricing bottom reached more than a year ago. “I don’t see these hurricanes as being the thing that shifts the freight market in a substantial manner,” Miller said. Short-term impact The bulk of the pricing impact will be felt in the immediate post-storm period as relief supplies head south, said David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, a 3PL in Austin, Texas. But a temporary pricing surge will eventually fade, he said. “While, in some cases, these storms may have been enough to disrupt routing guides, current market fundamentals, including a large contract-to-spot rate spread, should not result in much more than a short-lived surge in demand,” Spencer said. He said he does not expect year-over-year spot rate increases higher than 5% in the fourth quarter. An uptick in pricing may still constrain the overall market by keeping excess capacity on the road. “The recent spot rate volatility could actually work to help keep carriers on the brink of failure in the market longer due to increased spot opportunities,” he said. Spencer expects the increase in dry-van contract rates to reach a peak of 4% to 6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, while spot rates will reach a peak increase of 11% to 13% in the third quarter. Absorbing capacity Storm recovery efforts will command a significant amount of truck capacity, but there is more truck capacity available in 2024 than there was after the 2017 hurricanes. “We are still oversupplied to the tune of 100,000 to 120,000 carrier authorities,” Kendra Tucker, CEO of Truckstop.com, said at the Journal of Commerce 2024 Inland Distribution Conference last week. New entrants flooded the market from 2020 through 2022 and the number of carriers with active operating authorities has dropped since then, but “it’s still too many, just given the level of volume that we’ve got,” Tucker said. Kent Williams of Averitt, a less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload carrier based in Cookeville, Tenn., is slightly more optimistic. “I think the impact of the hurricanes will move the needle on capacity,” although not by much, he told the Journal of Commerce. “I don’t think we’ll go all of a sudden from excess capacity and depressed rates to a market reset,” he said. “We may move closer to a balance in supply and demand.” Capacity can tighten even if trucks aren’t taken out of the market, Williams pointed out. “We’ve had to change routes and transit times because what was once doable under the driver hours of service rules is no longer doable,” he said. For example, LTL truck drivers who used to take Interstate 40 between Charlotte, NC, and Nashville are now rerouting through Atlanta, adding hours and miles to their trip. “That hasn’t affected our service standards between Charlotte and Nashville, but some routes to points on the perimeter can no longer be serviced the next day,” Williams said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Truckload

Truck brokers

Surface

Hurricanes not seen as truckload pricing catalyst despite relief demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Oregon gateway is moving closer to becoming a landlord port after it reached a framework agreement with a third-party operator for its only international container terminal.</div>

The Oregon gateway is moving closer to becoming a landlord port after it reached a framework agreement with a third-party operator for its only international container terminal.

<div class="phx-topic">The Port of Portland has struck a tentative deal with its long-serving stevedore to oversee the Oregon port’s container terminal, which had faced closure this year due to its mounting financial losses. The port on Monday said it reached a framework agreement for Harbor Industrial to become the long-term operator of Portland’s Terminal 6. The framework lays out initial terms of the deal and a timeline, with a final agreement expected to be ready by the summer of 2025. Portland is getting out of the terminal business after <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/portland-plans-to-end-container-business-by-october-5240957">recording losses totaling over $26 million</a> from 2023 through 2024 due to a drop in container volumes and below-market lift rates.The new agreement relieves the port of having to market T6 to ocean carriers, establish lift rates and handle other management responsibilities, deferring those tasks to Harbor Industrial, which now schedules and supervises longshore labor at the port. The deal with Harbor also includes $5 million in stopgap funding from the state to help cover the losses, as well as another $20 million for capital improvements at T6. Oregon has also pledged more money toward maintenance dredging of the Columbia River navigation channel. ”This milestone is a fundamental positive shift in support of the Oregon importers and exporters to ensure an ongoing, reliable and efficient gateway for Oregon businesses,” Tim McCarthy, COO of Harbor Industrial, said in a statement.The Port of Portland hopes to double its current volume to 120,000 containers per year by 2032, with an eventual target of 180,000 containers annually after that.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Port of Portland has struck a tentative deal with its long-serving stevedore to oversee the Oregon port’s container terminal, which had faced closure this year due to its mounting financial losses. The port on Monday said it reached a framework agreement for Harbor Industrial to become the long-term operator of Portland’s Terminal 6. The framework lays out initial terms of the deal and a timeline, with a final agreement expected to be ready by the summer of 2025. Portland is getting out of the terminal business after recording losses totaling over $26 million from 2023 through 2024 due to a drop in container volumes and below-market lift rates. The new agreement relieves the port of having to market T6 to ocean carriers, establish lift rates and handle other management responsibilities, deferring those tasks to Harbor Industrial, which now schedules and supervises longshore labor at the port. The deal with Harbor also includes $5 million in stopgap funding from the state to help cover the losses, as well as another $20 million for capital improvements at T6. Oregon has also pledged more money toward maintenance dredging of the Columbia River navigation channel. ”This milestone is a fundamental positive shift in support of the Oregon importers and exporters to ensure an ongoing, reliable and efficient gateway for Oregon businesses,” Tim McCarthy, COO of Harbor Industrial, said in a statement. The Port of Portland hopes to double its current volume to 120,000 containers per year by 2032, with an eventual target of 180,000 containers annually after that. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

Marine terminals

North American ports

Port of Portland strikes deal with stevedore to operate container terminal

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Carrier executives who dominate the board of the United States Maritime Alliance tell the Journal of Commerce they are done with what they consider to be an overly passive approach demonstrated in recent months by USMX staff in the face of repeated provocations by ILA leadership.</div>

Carrier executives who dominate the board of the United States Maritime Alliance tell the Journal of Commerce they are done with what they consider to be an overly passive approach demonstrated in recent months by USMX staff in the face of repeated provocations by ILA leadership.

<div class="phx-topic">Container lines, after months of trying to maintain a low profile, are pushing harder on the need for automation at US East and Gulf coast ports as longshore labor refuses to negotiate on the technology issue and the union’s Jan. 15 strike threat nears. The United States Maritime Alliance’s (USMX’s) newfound assertiveness was on display last week in a <a href="https://www.usmx.com/assets/content/public-resources/12-3-24_Port_Modernization_and_Investment_in_Technology.pdf">rejoinder to the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) blaming</a> the contract impasse on rail-mounted gantry cranes sought by carriers: <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5896864_0.1.jpg"></img></div> “Modernization and investment in new technology are core priorities required to successfully bargain a new master contract with the ILA.” The missive was the first issue-focused statement from USMX, which until Dec. 3 had kept its messaging within negotiation updates. In comparison, the ILA has released a fiery video and multiple searing statements, including one even <a href="https://ilaunion.org/usmx-continues-weak-publicity-campaign-against-ila-with-unfair-labor-practices-suit-foreign-shipping-companies-exploiting-american-longshoremen-is-unfair-labor-practice-ila/">knocking USMX’s “weak publicity campaign.”</a> Carrier executives who dominate the board of the USMX tell the Journal of Commerce they are done with what they consider to be an overly passive approach demonstrated in recent months by USMX staff in the face of repeated provocations by ILA leadership. Sources told the Journal of Commerce that USMX staff advised the carriers to lay low and not confront the dockworkers over issues such as pay, productivity and automation even as the ILA castigated them as greedy, foreign-owned and bent on replacing American jobs with automation. Carriers are still smarting from the Biden administration <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/behind-the-scenes-white-house-arm-twisting-got-ila-wage-deal-done-5747241">essentially forcing their group CEOs</a> during an early October conference call to accept a 62% pay increase for dockworkers over a new six-year contract, which ended a three-day strike. “The carriers were assured by USMX that things would work out, that [ILA President Harold] Daggett is only posturing, so they weren’t aggressive in communicating how bad a deal this was,” a knowledgeable source told the Journal of Commerce. “In retrospect, we were advised to stay out of the spotlight, not engage in a fight in the media, [and] allow Harold to sound off unchecked, without resistance.” According to two sources, frustration with that strategy led to recent changes in responsibility among senior staff at USMX. At least among some of the carrier members of USMX, there’s a preference to take a harder line even if that means another ILA strike that is likely to draw in the new Trump administration. Key, at least for some carriers, is the fact that this time around the US presidential election isn’t hanging in the balance as it was in October. Back then, carrier CEOs were not willing to keep the strike going and potentially be exposed as a target for blame for influencing the election outcome. <h3>Gauging the Trump factor </h3>Similar to the Biden administration, President-elect Donald Trump has emphasized the foreign ownership of major container lines. On Oct. 1, the first day of the ILA’s strike, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/harris-trump-dockworkers-strike-00182238">the Trump camp told Politico</a>: “American workers should be able to negotiate for better wages, especially since the shipping companies are mostly foreign flag vessels...” In a Nov. 25 statement featuring a photo of Daggett’s “constructive meeting” with Trump that took place in late 2023, the union boss <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trumps-labor-pick-draws-longshore-and-teamster-praise-but-trucker-ire-5846861">praised the incoming president’s nomination</a> of Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer as US labor secretary. Trump during the ILA’s three-day strike expressed sympathy for the dockworkers who “were decimated by this inflation.” Still, Trump’s labor sympathies aren’t shared by Elon Musk, his adviser and biggest reelection backer financially. Musk on Saturday <a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1865426504886137218?s=46">retweeted a video</a> by libertarian pundit John Stossel titled, “America’s Stone Age Ports: How Unions Block Progress.” Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen, who estimates there’s an 80% chance of ILA striking come Jan. 15 due to a lack of an agreement on automation, notes the differing stances of Trump and Musk. “The big uncertainty is that Trump was very much pro-union back in October, while Elon has long been pro-automation,” Petersen said. “Does Trump listen to Elon or follow his natural instinct which is to be the man of the people?” Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Container lines, after months of trying to maintain a low profile, are pushing harder on the need for automation at US East and Gulf coast ports as longshore labor refuses to negotiate on the technology issue and the union’s Jan. 15 strike threat nears. The United States Maritime Alliance’s (USMX’s) newfound assertiveness was on display last week in a rejoinder to the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) blaming the contract impasse on rail-mounted gantry cranes sought by carriers: “Modernization and investment in new technology are core priorities required to successfully bargain a new master contract with the ILA.” The missive was the first issue-focused statement from USMX, which until Dec. 3 had kept its messaging within negotiation updates. In comparison, the ILA has released a fiery video and multiple searing statements, including one even knocking USMX’s “weak publicity campaign.” Carrier executives who dominate the board of the USMX tell the Journal of Commerce they are done with what they consider to be an overly passive approach demonstrated in recent months by USMX staff in the face of repeated provocations by ILA leadership. Sources told the Journal of Commerce that USMX staff advised the carriers to lay low and not confront the dockworkers over issues such as pay, productivity and automation even as the ILA castigated them as greedy, foreign-owned and bent on replacing American jobs with automation. Carriers are still smarting from the Biden administration essentially forcing their group CEOs during an early October conference call to accept a 62% pay increase for dockworkers over a new six-year contract, which ended a three-day strike. “The carriers were assured by USMX that things would work out, that [ILA President Harold] Daggett is only posturing, so they weren’t aggressive in communicating how bad a deal this was,” a knowledgeable source told the Journal of Commerce. “In retrospect, we were advised to stay out of the spotlight, not engage in a fight in the media, [and] allow Harold to sound off unchecked, without resistance.” According to two sources, frustration with that strategy led to recent changes in responsibility among senior staff at USMX. At least among some of the carrier members of USMX, there’s a preference to take a harder line even if that means another ILA strike that is likely to draw in the new Trump administration. Key, at least for some carriers, is the fact that this time around the US presidential election isn’t hanging in the balance as it was in October. Back then, carrier CEOs were not willing to keep the strike going and potentially be exposed as a target for blame for influencing the election outcome. Gauging the Trump factor Similar to the Biden administration, President-elect Donald Trump has emphasized the foreign ownership of major container lines. On Oct. 1, the first day of the ILA’s strike, the Trump camp told Politico : “American workers should be able to negotiate for better wages, especially since the shipping companies are mostly foreign flag vessels...” In a Nov. 25 statement featuring a photo of Daggett’s “constructive meeting” with Trump that took place in late 2023, the union boss praised the incoming president’s nomination of Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer as US labor secretary. Trump during the ILA’s three-day strike expressed sympathy for the dockworkers who “were decimated by this inflation.” Still, Trump’s labor sympathies aren’t shared by Elon Musk, his adviser and biggest reelection backer financially. Musk on Saturday retweeted a video by libertarian pundit John Stossel titled, “America’s Stone Age Ports: How Unions Block Progress.” Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen, who estimates there’s an 80% chance of ILA striking come Jan. 15 due to a lack of an agreement on automation, notes the differing stances of Trump and Musk. “The big uncertainty is that Trump was very much pro-union back in October, while Elon has long been pro-automation,” Petersen said. “Does Trump listen to Elon or follow his natural instinct which is to be the man of the people?” Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Port News

Container lines

Longshore labor

Maritime

Ocean carriers take harder line with ILA as January strike date nears

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Fears that methanol will not be available in the coming years at the scale required to power a growing and thirsty ocean fleet are pushing the order book deeper down the LNG pathway.</div>

Fears that methanol will not be available in the coming years at the scale required to power a growing and thirsty ocean fleet are pushing the order book deeper down the LNG pathway.

<div class="phx-topic">The availability of green fuels to power vessels on the fast-growing dual-fuel order book as they come online over the next few years is “the single biggest worry we have,” according to Hapag-Lloyd’s Rolf Habben Jansen. “In five or 10 years from today, there will be significantly more ships that can sail on green fuel than there is green fuel available,” the Hamburg-based carrier CEO told customers during an online briefing Monday. “That keeps us awake and is why we are prepared to sign offtake agreements with suppliers for longer periods,” Habben Jansen added. “We are talking to various producers about the availability of green fuel, but we see the availability of green fuel as a big problem.” Hapag-Lloyd and Seaspan are converting five 10,100-TEU charter ships to a methanol dual-fuel propulsion system that will be ready in 2026. Maersk <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersks-methanol-ship-conversion-tests-retrofitting-business-case-5822762">retrofitted its first vessel to methanol</a> and returned it to service in November to join the nine 16,592-TEU methanol-capable ships that have so far been delivered from an 18-ship order. Other carriers that will also be hunting for methanol to power the vessels coming off their order books are Ocean Network Express, Evergreen, HMM and Cosco. In mid-November, Cosco Shipping Holdings <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cosco-shareholders-back-22-billion-order-for-12-methanol-fueled-ships-5818358">made a $2.2 billion deal</a> for 12 dual-fuel 14,000-TEU vessels for delivery in 2027. <h3>Urgent moves for supply deals </h3>Carriers have been urgently trying to secure supply deals for the future as their dual-fuel ships are delivered. While the vessels will be able to sail on conventional bunker fuels, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tightening-europe-decarbonization-measures-will-raise-shipper-costs-carriers-5833489">tightening emissions controls by regulators</a> and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/midterm-emissions-plan-to-take-center-stage-at-upcoming-imo-meeting-5731399">a global pricing measure</a> that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) wants in place by next October have lent an urgency to the sourcing of green fuel. Hapag-Lloyd in late November <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hapag-lloyd-joins-maersk-in-chinese-methanol-supply-deal-5866031">signed an agreement with Chinese energy producer Goldwind</a> for the annual supply of 250,000 tons of green methanol per year from 2026, joining <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hapag-lloyd-says-gemini-alliance-cargo-bookings-to-open-dec-3-5846853">Gemini Cooperation</a> partner Maersk <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-inks-new-methanol-sourcing-deal-with-chinese-supplier-5234419">that already has a 500,000-tons-per-year green methanol deal</a> with Goldwind. But Steve Esau, COO of LNG multi-sector industry coalition SEA-LNG, said many of the memorandums of understanding that ocean carriers have signed with methanol fuel producers have not yet matured into projects, raising concerns among shipowners. “The big energy suppliers are not really that interested in producing large volumes of green methanol for the shipping industry for various commercial reasons, and there is a realization that the fuel was not going to become available at the scale needed by the shipping industry,” Esau told the Journal of Commerce in a recent interview. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1a054077-7728-4ffd-abb8-b7aff17c3235"></dynamic-object></div>Esau said there was an emerging recognition within the shipping supply chain that methanol was a tiny market. “If you converted methanol into LNG equivalent, you’re looking at a methanol fossil fuel market of 50 million tons, most of it produced and consumed locally,” Esau said. “Compare that to LNG, which is closer to 500 million tons and has infrastructure for another billion tons of regasification capacity. You just don’t have that infrastructure in place for methanol.” The growing methanol supply concerns have seen carriers hedging their bets and directing significant investment toward building vessels capable of sailing on LNG. Alphaliner reports that six of the top 10 ocean carriers now have LNG-capable ships on their order books. That includes Maersk that last week confirmed an order for 20 dual-fuel LNG-capable ships totaling 300,000 TEUs, and Hapag-Lloyd, which last month <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hapag-lloyd-makes-4-billion-move-down-lng-path-with-24-ship-dual-fuel-order-5787368">announced its preference for LNG-powered vessels</a> with an order for 24 ships. Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) has also decided to move in the direction of LNG, CEO Soren Toft said in October. About 70% of the total 1.7 million TEUs of ship orders made so far this year were for ships capable of sailing on methanol or LNG, with LNG comprising 63% of the new orders, according to data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. In 2023, the methanol-LNG split was 66% in favor of methanol ships, Sea-web data shows. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The availability of green fuels to power vessels on the fast-growing dual-fuel order book as they come online over the next few years is “the single biggest worry we have,” according to Hapag-Lloyd’s Rolf Habben Jansen. “In five or 10 years from today, there will be significantly more ships that can sail on green fuel than there is green fuel available,” the Hamburg-based carrier CEO told customers during an online briefing Monday. “That keeps us awake and is why we are prepared to sign offtake agreements with suppliers for longer periods,” Habben Jansen added. “We are talking to various producers about the availability of green fuel, but we see the availability of green fuel as a big problem.” Hapag-Lloyd and Seaspan are converting five 10,100-TEU charter ships to a methanol dual-fuel propulsion system that will be ready in 2026. Maersk retrofitted its first vessel to methanol and returned it to service in November to join the nine 16,592-TEU methanol-capable ships that have so far been delivered from an 18-ship order. Other carriers that will also be hunting for methanol to power the vessels coming off their order books are Ocean Network Express, Evergreen, HMM and Cosco. In mid-November, Cosco Shipping Holdings made a $2.2 billion deal for 12 dual-fuel 14,000-TEU vessels for delivery in 2027. Urgent moves for supply deals Carriers have been urgently trying to secure supply deals for the future as their dual-fuel ships are delivered. While the vessels will be able to sail on conventional bunker fuels, tightening emissions controls by regulators and a global pricing measure that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) wants in place by next October have lent an urgency to the sourcing of green fuel. Hapag-Lloyd in late November signed an agreement with Chinese energy producer Goldwind for the annual supply of 250,000 tons of green methanol per year from 2026, joining Gemini Cooperation partner Maersk that already has a 500,000-tons-per-year green methanol deal with Goldwind. But Steve Esau, COO of LNG multi-sector industry coalition SEA-LNG, said many of the memorandums of understanding that ocean carriers have signed with methanol fuel producers have not yet matured into projects, raising concerns among shipowners. “The big energy suppliers are not really that interested in producing large volumes of green methanol for the shipping industry for various commercial reasons, and there is a realization that the fuel was not going to become available at the scale needed by the shipping industry,” Esau told the Journal of Commerce in a recent interview. Esau said there was an emerging recognition within the shipping supply chain that methanol was a tiny market. “If you converted methanol into LNG equivalent, you’re looking at a methanol fossil fuel market of 50 million tons, most of it produced and consumed locally,” Esau said. “Compare that to LNG, which is closer to 500 million tons and has infrastructure for another billion tons of regasification capacity. You just don’t have that infrastructure in place for methanol.” The growing methanol supply concerns have seen carriers hedging their bets and directing significant investment toward building vessels capable of sailing on LNG. Alphaliner reports that six of the top 10 ocean carriers now have LNG-capable ships on their order books. That includes Maersk that last week confirmed an order for 20 dual-fuel LNG-capable ships totaling 300,000 TEUs, and Hapag-Lloyd, which last month announced its preference for LNG-powered vessels with an order for 24 ships. Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) has also decided to move in the direction of LNG, CEO Soren Toft said in October. About 70% of the total 1.7 million TEUs of ship orders made so far this year were for ships capable of sailing on methanol or LNG, with LNG comprising 63% of the new orders, according to data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In 2023, the methanol-LNG split was 66% in favor of methanol ships, Sea-web data shows. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Potential shortage of green fuels ‘keeps us awake’: Hapag-Lloyd CEO

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Limited air freight options for specialized cargoes are not expected to ease in the short term. </div>

Limited air freight options for specialized cargoes are not expected to ease in the short term.

<div class="phx-topic">A combination of strong heavy-lift and outsized cargo demand, tight air cargo capacity and surging air freight rates has led to a modal shift in shipments from air to multipurpose vessels (MPVs), carriers and brokers say.Over the past two years, charter rates for aircraft specializing in heavy-lift and outsized cargo have surged more than 50% on strong demand and capacity shortages, Andriy Blagovisniy, global director of air chartering at LP Aero, part of Logistics Plus, told the Journal of Commerce.This has pushed charter rates for the heavy-lift air industry workhorse Antonov An-124 to over $2 million for a flight from Asia to the US. Heavy-lift and project cargo customers charter the entire airplane on an aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance (ACMI) basis, unlike general air freight which is charged per kilogram. Actual rates are dependent on the type of cargo, flight duration and route.“Charter rates are high, but at the same time it cannot be said that they are not affordable,” Blagovisniy said. “When customers make the decision to use air transport their choice is always based on whether to gain time or save money given the significant financial losses that can arise from delays in delivery of project cargo.”However, he said that strong demand has led to longer lead times for specialized air freight. “To transport project cargo by air it is now necessary to book an aircraft approximately six to seven weeks in advance,” Blagovisniy said. That’s at least double the time needed two years ago. Time also needs to be factored in for the bespoke preparations necessary for the carriage of project cargoes, including the design and manufacture of frames to hold the cargo and the provision of lashing and lifting points to ensure safe weight distribution in the aircraft.The supply squeeze has meant that the waiting time for aircraft availability is now comparable with the time taken to deliver cargo by sea – though sea transportation is considerably cheaper, Blagovisniy said.“Consequently, customers who previously traditionally considered air delivery as the fastest and most convenient option are now, from the very beginning, planning and building their logistics needs on the delivery of project cargo by ship,” Blagovisniy added.<h3>MPV carrier welcomes modal shift</h3>Blagovisniy’s comments were echoed by Marc Willim, general manager and head of chartering at MPV operator AAL Shipping. “We have heard about such cases of heavy-lift air freight shipments moving to ocean freight from our forwarder clients,” Willim told the Journal of Commerce. “It is, however, difficult for us to quantify how many times or which cargoes specifically have shifted.“Due to the typically urgent nature of these shipments, we have a policy of earliest possibly engagement and forward planning with our project customers…and we can plan and lock in sailings early to satisfy individual project or customer needs,” he added.There are few aircraft capable of transporting heavy-lift or outsized project cargo loads. These include the AN-124, the world’s largest commercial cargo aircraft operated by Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines, Boeing 747-400s and Ilyushin IL-76s, all with a 50-ton payload. The Airbus Beluga ST, based on an Airbus A300, can carry up to 40 mt.Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, only six AN-124 Ukraine-registered aircraft remain active in the global heavy-lift transportation market, but “two of these are dedicated to transporting arms and supplies to Ukraine,” a broker said.Ongoing aircraft maintenance means that only two to four AN-124s currently operate on the global commercial market, said the broker, who did not want to be identified.Volga-Dnepr Airlines, which claims to have a fleet of 10 AN-124s, only operates two aircraft because the rest are grounded due to Western sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The two aircraft only operate between Russia and “friendly” countries including China, India and Kazakhstan. There are just two Ilyushin IL-76s available on the market today.“Boeing 747s are more widely available, operated by cargo airlines including Cargolux and Kalitta Air, and have the flexibility to load project cargo through their nose door. But technically, they are more limited due to cargo door dimensions and maximum permissible floor loads,” the broker added.<h3>Shippers hold for Beluga capacity</h3>Tight specialized air freight capacity is expected to continue into next year. Benoît Lemonnier, Airbus Beluga Transport’s managing director, anticipates the situation will improve next year when the airline, specially created by European aircraft maker Airbus, starts to more actively promote its five Beluga Super Transporter (ST) aircraft.The priorities for 2025 are Airbus-related cargoes including satellites and helicopters “and the upcoming transport of new payloads for external strategic customers,” Lemonnier told the Journal of Commerce. “Aeronautics, defense and space are the most active with Beluga at the moment.”Airbus Beluga Transport, which received its air operator’s certificate in November 2023, has focused on developing its operations, flying around 700 hours in the first nine months of this year mainly on European and a few long-range flights, he said.The Beluga ST has a 40 mt payload and the world’s largest interior cross-section of any transport aircraft, accommodating outsized cargo of up to 23 feet wide and 22 feet high.Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

A combination of strong heavy-lift and outsized cargo demand, tight air cargo capacity and surging air freight rates has led to a modal shift in shipments from air to multipurpose vessels (MPVs), carriers and brokers say. Over the past two years, charter rates for aircraft specializing in heavy-lift and outsized cargo have surged more than 50% on strong demand and capacity shortages, Andriy Blagovisniy, global director of air chartering at LP Aero, part of Logistics Plus, told the Journal of Commerce. This has pushed charter rates for the heavy-lift air industry workhorse Antonov An-124 to over $2 million for a flight from Asia to the US. Heavy-lift and project cargo customers charter the entire airplane on an aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance (ACMI) basis, unlike general air freight which is charged per kilogram. Actual rates are dependent on the type of cargo, flight duration and route. “Charter rates are high, but at the same time it cannot be said that they are not affordable,” Blagovisniy said. “When customers make the decision to use air transport their choice is always based on whether to gain time or save money given the significant financial losses that can arise from delays in delivery of project cargo.” However, he said that strong demand has led to longer lead times for specialized air freight. “To transport project cargo by air it is now necessary to book an aircraft approximately six to seven weeks in advance,” Blagovisniy said. That’s at least double the time needed two years ago. Time also needs to be factored in for the bespoke preparations necessary for the carriage of project cargoes, including the design and manufacture of frames to hold the cargo and the provision of lashing and lifting points to ensure safe weight distribution in the aircraft. The supply squeeze has meant that the waiting time for aircraft availability is now comparable with the time taken to deliver cargo by sea – though sea transportation is considerably cheaper, Blagovisniy said. “Consequently, customers who previously traditionally considered air delivery as the fastest and most convenient option are now, from the very beginning, planning and building their logistics needs on the delivery of project cargo by ship,” Blagovisniy added. MPV carrier welcomes modal shift Blagovisniy’s comments were echoed by Marc Willim, general manager and head of chartering at MPV operator AAL Shipping. “We have heard about such cases of heavy-lift air freight shipments moving to ocean freight from our forwarder clients,” Willim told the Journal of Commerce. “It is, however, difficult for us to quantify how many times or which cargoes specifically have shifted. “Due to the typically urgent nature of these shipments, we have a policy of earliest possibly engagement and forward planning with our project customers…and we can plan and lock in sailings early to satisfy individual project or customer needs,” he added. There are few aircraft capable of transporting heavy-lift or outsized project cargo loads. These include the AN-124, the world’s largest commercial cargo aircraft operated by Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines, Boeing 747-400s and Ilyushin IL-76s, all with a 50-ton payload. The Airbus Beluga ST, based on an Airbus A300, can carry up to 40 mt. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, only six AN-124 Ukraine-registered aircraft remain active in the global heavy-lift transportation market, but “two of these are dedicated to transporting arms and supplies to Ukraine,” a broker said. Ongoing aircraft maintenance means that only two to four AN-124s currently operate on the global commercial market, said the broker, who did not want to be identified. Volga-Dnepr Airlines, which claims to have a fleet of 10 AN-124s, only operates two aircraft because the rest are grounded due to Western sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The two aircraft only operate between Russia and “friendly” countries including China, India and Kazakhstan. There are just two Ilyushin IL-76s available on the market today. “Boeing 747s are more widely available, operated by cargo airlines including Cargolux and Kalitta Air, and have the flexibility to load project cargo through their nose door. But technically, they are more limited due to cargo door dimensions and maximum permissible floor loads,” the broker added. Shippers hold for Beluga capacity Tight specialized air freight capacity is expected to continue into next year. Benoît Lemonnier, Airbus Beluga Transport’s managing director, anticipates the situation will improve next year when the airline, specially created by European aircraft maker Airbus, starts to more actively promote its five Beluga Super Transporter (ST) aircraft. The priorities for 2025 are Airbus-related cargoes including satellites and helicopters “and the upcoming transport of new payloads for external strategic customers,” Lemonnier told the Journal of Commerce. “Aeronautics, defense and space are the most active with Beluga at the moment.” Airbus Beluga Transport, which received its air operator’s certificate in November 2023, has focused on developing its operations, flying around 700 hours in the first nine months of this year mainly on European and a few long-range flights, he said. The Beluga ST has a 40 mt payload and the world’s largest interior cross-section of any transport aircraft, accommodating outsized cargo of up to 23 feet wide and 22 feet high. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

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Project cargo

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Lack of heavy-lift air freight capacity forces shift to ocean transport

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Steady-but-uninspiring demand for MPVs has kept freight rates at a sustainable level.</div>

Steady-but-uninspiring demand for MPVs has kept freight rates at a sustainable level.

<div class="phx-topic">Momentum for the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet has eased as renewables projects move slower than anticipated, leaving forward-booked tonnage free to re-enter the charter market and keeping freight rates in check.Michael Mørland, project cargo director/Atlantic at G2 Ocean, told the Journal of Commerce that the renewable segment has not really delivered the volume that was expected in 2024. “And the outlook for the remaining pipeline of projects is the same -- things are going slower than anticipated as the financing climate has been harder, and there are less volumes than anticipated,” Mørland said.This has led to an easing in freight rates because tonnage that had been allocated for the pipeline isn’t being utilized. “That ruins some of the momentum for the multipurpose fleets,” he said.One notable trend is US manufacturers switching supply to near-field production where possible, including from Mexico. “The more they get that bit right, the less they have to ship deepsea,” Mørland said. Toepfer Transport said in its Dec. 6 Multipurpose Shipping Report that the Atlantic trades have shown “gradual and modest positive development,” but are still below the level considered normal.“On both sides of the Atlantic, economic growth is slow, and there are some uncertainties about the impact of the next US presidency on global trade,” Toepfer said.Nevertheless, robust demand for tonnage in Asia still provides for stable vessel utilization, Toepfer added. The broker said it anticipates that the current sideways movement will “persist for a few more months,” although an improvement in rates is expected from the second quarter of 2025 onwards, subject to developments in the US. Toepfer projects a 2.57% increase in its Toepfer Multipurpose Index (TMI) by November 2025, year over year.Drewry Shipping Consultants’ indices echoed the steady, but uninspiring market. Published Dec. 6, its new Project Cargo Transport Index reached 175 points in November, up 0.6% from October, while its new General Cargo Index rose 1.4% to 145 points. The base point for both indices is 100 as of January 2019, and they have been calculated forward from that point.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="67c43007-3a39-487a-b219-50013baafc2a"></dynamic-object></div><h3>US cargo demand expected to pivot towards oil </h3>Looking to 2025, Mørland expects a shift in the cargo base for MPVs in the US.“It's quite clear that Donald Trump’s new government is not very pro-renewables,” he said. “They're more into the hydrocarbons and fossil fuels, and I do expect that will trickle down to the MPV fleet with more oil and gas and LNG-related projects in the future.”Fleet changes will also play into the sector’s capacity balance in the coming year. “When you look at the fleet balance, there will be a fair amount of tonnage exiting the fleet in the coming years,” Mørland said. “From G2 Ocean’s perspective in the next few years, there are quite a few ships that will be leaving because they're aging and, as publicized, we will be commencing a newbuild program to futureproof our fleet.”He said G2 Ocean is not the only carrier in that situation, and while there are newbuild programs in place, there is expected to be more MPV capacity exiting than being built. This will lead to tighter capacity. “So even if the market compresses, the market will flatten rather than reduce,” Mørland said.Toepfer’s TMI is based on expected average rates for six- to 12-month time charters for 12,500 dwt “F-Type” vessels with safe working load of 240 to 360 mt, as reported to Toepfer by owners and operators. Drewry’s new general cargo index is based on time charter rates collected from a range of stakeholders for general cargo, dry bulk, car and container carriers and on container freight rates. Drewry weights the various vessel types using estimates, based on its vessel supply/demand model, of how much non-containerized general cargo each sector is carrying and vessel utilization levels in those sectors. Drewry’s project cargo index incorporates time charter rates for various project carrier size categories along with direct competing sectors included in the general cargo index. Vessel types are again weighted according to proportion of project cargo estimated to be carried as per the supply/demand model.Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Momentum for the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet has eased as renewables projects move slower than anticipated, leaving forward-booked tonnage free to re-enter the charter market and keeping freight rates in check. Michael Mørland, project cargo director/Atlantic at G2 Ocean, told the Journal of Commerce that the renewable segment has not really delivered the volume that was expected in 2024. “And the outlook for the remaining pipeline of projects is the same -- things are going slower than anticipated as the financing climate has been harder, and there are less volumes than anticipated,” Mørland said. This has led to an easing in freight rates because tonnage that had been allocated for the pipeline isn’t being utilized. “That ruins some of the momentum for the multipurpose fleets,” he said. One notable trend is US manufacturers switching supply to near-field production where possible, including from Mexico. “The more they get that bit right, the less they have to ship deepsea,” Mørland said. Toepfer Transport said in its Dec. 6 Multipurpose Shipping Report that the Atlantic trades have shown “gradual and modest positive development,” but are still below the level considered normal. “On both sides of the Atlantic, economic growth is slow, and there are some uncertainties about the impact of the next US presidency on global trade,” Toepfer said. Nevertheless, robust demand for tonnage in Asia still provides for stable vessel utilization, Toepfer added. The broker said it anticipates that the current sideways movement will “persist for a few more months,” although an improvement in rates is expected from the second quarter of 2025 onwards, subject to developments in the US. Toepfer projects a 2.57% increase in its Toepfer Multipurpose Index (TMI) by November 2025, year over year. Drewry Shipping Consultants’ indices echoed the steady, but uninspiring market. Published Dec. 6, its new Project Cargo Transport Index reached 175 points in November, up 0.6% from October, while its new General Cargo Index rose 1.4% to 145 points. The base point for both indices is 100 as of January 2019, and they have been calculated forward from that point. US cargo demand expected to pivot towards oil Looking to 2025, Mørland expects a shift in the cargo base for MPVs in the US. “It's quite clear that Donald Trump’s new government is not very pro-renewables,” he said. “They're more into the hydrocarbons and fossil fuels, and I do expect that will trickle down to the MPV fleet with more oil and gas and LNG-related projects in the future.” Fleet changes will also play into the sector’s capacity balance in the coming year. “When you look at the fleet balance, there will be a fair amount of tonnage exiting the fleet in the coming years,” Mørland said. “From G2 Ocean’s perspective in the next few years, there are quite a few ships that will be leaving because they're aging and, as publicized, we will be commencing a newbuild program to futureproof our fleet.” He said G2 Ocean is not the only carrier in that situation, and while there are newbuild programs in place, there is expected to be more MPV capacity exiting than being built. This will lead to tighter capacity. “So even if the market compresses, the market will flatten rather than reduce,” Mørland said. Toepfer’s TMI is based on expected average rates for six- to 12-month time charters for 12,500 dwt “F-Type” vessels with safe working load of 240 to 360 mt, as reported to Toepfer by owners and operators. Drewry’s new general cargo index is based on time charter rates collected from a range of stakeholders for general cargo, dry bulk, car and container carriers and on container freight rates. Drewry weights the various vessel types using estimates, based on its vessel supply/demand model, of how much non-containerized general cargo each sector is carrying and vessel utilization levels in those sectors. Drewry’s project cargo index incorporates time charter rates for various project carrier size categories along with direct competing sectors included in the general cargo index. Vessel types are again weighted according to proportion of project cargo estimated to be carried as per the supply/demand model. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Energy projects

Slow-moving renewable projects curtail MPV enthusiasm

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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