<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As damage from Helene and Milton is being tallied, logistics experts say the storms won’t do much to accelerate spot and contract truckload pricing in the long term. </div>

As damage from Helene and Milton is being tallied, logistics experts say the storms won’t do much to accelerate spot and contract truckload pricing in the long term.

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<div>The damage caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton will take months to fully repair, but the impact on freight markets and truckload pricing will not be as great as initially believed, logistics experts told the Journal of Commerce. “We will see an immediate increase in relief activity, and that will drive an inbound spot market surge” in the areas affected by Helene and Milton, Andy Dyer, CEO at Atlanta-based third-party logistics provider (3PL) AFS Logistics, said in an interview Thursday. However, despite <a>increases in spot market pricing</a> for dry-van, refrigerated and flatbed tractor-trailers last week, Dyer doesn’t believe relief efforts...

The damage caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton will take months to fully repair, but the impact on freight markets and truckload pricing will not be as great as initially believed, logistics experts told the Journal of Commerce. “We will see an immediate increase in relief activity, and that will drive an inbound spot market surge” in the areas affected by Helene and Milton, Andy Dyer, CEO at Atlanta-based third-party logistics provider (3PL) AFS Logistics, said in an interview Thursday. However, despite increases in spot market pricing for dry-van, refrigerated and flatbed tractor-trailers last week, Dyer doesn’t believe relief efforts from the back-to-back hurricanes will siphon off enough trucks to drive up spot pricing beyond the battered Southeast. “With utmost compassion for all the individuals affected, the regions where these hurricanes hit are consumption markets, not production markets,” unlike Houston, which was flooded by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Dyer said. ”I don’t see this as the beginning of a long-term freight-rate recovery” similar to the one seen in 2017 after Harvey and Hurricane Irma struck Texas and Florida within a month of each other,” he said. “It’s what everybody wants, but this isn’t it.” Dyer was joined by others who rejected a simple comparison between the back-to-back hurricanes of 2017 and this year’s Helene and Milton. “We were already in a bullish truckload spot market when Harvey struck [in August 2017], with freight volumes rising,” said Jason Miller, the Eli Broad professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University and a Journal of Commerce analyst. The current spot market is still traveling along a pricing bottom reached more than a year ago. “I don’t see these hurricanes as being the thing that shifts the freight market in a substantial manner,” Miller said. Short-term impact The bulk of the pricing impact will be felt in the immediate post-storm period as relief supplies head south, said David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, a 3PL in Austin, Texas. But a temporary pricing surge will eventually fade, he said. “While, in some cases, these storms may have been enough to disrupt routing guides, current market fundamentals, including a large contract-to-spot rate spread, should not result in much more than a short-lived surge in demand,” Spencer said. He said he does not expect year-over-year spot rate increases higher than 5% in the fourth quarter. An uptick in pricing may still constrain the overall market by keeping excess capacity on the road. “The recent spot rate volatility could actually work to help keep carriers on the brink of failure in the market longer due to increased spot opportunities,” he said. Spencer expects the increase in dry-van contract rates to reach a peak of 4% to 6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, while spot rates will reach a peak increase of 11% to 13% in the third quarter. Absorbing capacity Storm recovery efforts will command a significant amount of truck capacity, but there is more truck capacity available in 2024 than there was after the 2017 hurricanes. “We are still oversupplied to the tune of 100,000 to 120,000 carrier authorities,” Kendra Tucker, CEO of Truckstop.com, said at the Journal of Commerce 2024 Inland Distribution Conference last week. New entrants flooded the market from 2020 through 2022 and the number of carriers with active operating authorities has dropped since then, but “it’s still too many, just given the level of volume that we’ve got,” Tucker said. Kent Williams of Averitt, a less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload carrier based in Cookeville, Tenn., is slightly more optimistic. “I think the impact of the hurricanes will move the needle on capacity,” although not by much, he told the Journal of Commerce. “I don’t think we’ll go all of a sudden from excess capacity and depressed rates to a market reset,” he said. “We may move closer to a balance in supply and demand.” Capacity can tighten even if trucks aren’t taken out of the market, Williams pointed out. “We’ve had to change routes and transit times because what was once doable under the driver hours of service rules is no longer doable,” he said. For example, LTL truck drivers who used to take Interstate 40 between Charlotte, NC, and Nashville are now rerouting through Atlanta, adding hours and miles to their trip. “That hasn’t affected our service standards between Charlotte and Nashville, but some routes to points on the perimeter can no longer be serviced the next day,” Williams said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Truckload

Truck brokers

Surface

Hurricanes not seen as truckload pricing catalyst despite relief demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The carrier’s CFO pointed to the rising ratio of US retail sales to inventories as a sign that retailers are still bringing in new inventory.</div>

The carrier’s CFO pointed to the rising ratio of US retail sales to inventories as a sign that retailers are still bringing in new inventory.

<div class="phx-topic">US import volumes are expected to remain elevated into 2025 amid cargo frontloading driven by labor and tariff concerns, officials at Zim Integrated Shipping Services said Wednesday. Zim CFO Xavier Destriau, during the carrier’s third-quarter conference call, pointed to the rising ratio of US retail sales to inventories, a barometer of available product, as a sign that retailers are still bringing in new inventory, meaning there likely won’t be a sharp drop in volumes early next year. “We see that inventory levels as of today are not abnormal compared to normal inventory levels to be expected at this time of year,” he said. “The demand has been strong and resilient in the US, so we don’t feel too alarmed that there might be inventory buildup going on right now in the US that might bite us back in subsequent quarters into 2025.” The ratio of US retail inventories to sales climbed to 1.42 in September from 1.27 in August, according to US Census Bureau data. The 1.42 level, also observed in February 2023 and February 2021, is the highest since 1.69 in April 2020, the outset of the pandemic. Destriau pointed to implications of a second possible strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), the fear of new US tariffs and general seasonality as possible accelerants for the growing inventories. Zim rode the market volatility to a strong performance in the third quarter, reporting its revenues jumped 117% year over year to $2.77 billion. Net income of $1.13 billion was up from a loss of $2.27 billion. Volumes moved by the carrier in the quarter increased 12% to 970,000 TEUs. Some of the profitability in the third quarter was a result of the carrier having more spot capacity on hand after taking a harder line on annual service contract pricing in early 2024 by shifting the typical 50% share of spot volumes up to about 65%, Destriau said. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

US import volumes are expected to remain elevated into 2025 amid cargo frontloading driven by labor and tariff concerns, officials at Zim Integrated Shipping Services said Wednesday. Zim CFO Xavier Destriau, during the carrier’s third-quarter conference call, pointed to the rising ratio of US retail sales to inventories, a barometer of available product, as a sign that retailers are still bringing in new inventory, meaning there likely won’t be a sharp drop in volumes early next year. “We see that inventory levels as of today are not abnormal compared to normal inventory levels to be expected at this time of year,” he said. “The demand has been strong and resilient in the US, so we don’t feel too alarmed that there might be inventory buildup going on right now in the US that might bite us back in subsequent quarters into 2025.” The ratio of US retail inventories to sales climbed to 1.42 in September from 1.27 in August, according to US Census Bureau data. The 1.42 level, also observed in February 2023 and February 2021, is the highest since 1.69 in April 2020, the outset of the pandemic. Destriau pointed to implications of a second possible strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), the fear of new US tariffs and general seasonality as possible accelerants for the growing inventories. Zim rode the market volatility to a strong performance in the third quarter, reporting its revenues jumped 117% year over year to $2.77 billion. Net income of $1.13 billion was up from a loss of $2.27 billion. Volumes moved by the carrier in the quarter increased 12% to 970,000 TEUs. Some of the profitability in the third quarter was a result of the carrier having more spot capacity on hand after taking a harder line on annual service contract pricing in early 2024 by shifting the typical 50% share of spot volumes up to about 65%, Destriau said. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

Maritime

Container Shipping News

Cargo push to continue amid mounting market pressures: Zim

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Donald Trump has promised to stop US offshore wind projects on “day one” of his administration, but stakeholders say they are cautiously optimistic that momentum from existing projects and leases could help ease his resistance.</div>

Donald Trump has promised to stop US offshore wind projects on “day one” of his administration, but stakeholders say they are cautiously optimistic that momentum from existing projects and leases could help ease his resistance.

<div class="phx-topic">An inadequate domestic supply chain poses greater challenges to developing the US offshore wind sector than politics, a panel of offshore wind and marine transport leaders told attendees at the 2024 Marine Money finance forum in New Orleans. Although US President-elect Donald Trump has promised he would sign an executive order to stop offshore wind projects “on day one” of taking office, panelists said they were cautiously optimistic that momentum from existing projects and leases could help ease the incoming administration’s resistance to offshore wind development.“What I’m interested in is how do we build a domestic supply chain — ports, vessels, people, equipment — capable of doing this? Because this is cutting edge-stuff. And the scale of it is wild,” said Joel Whitman, president of Massachusetts-based services provider Foss Offshore Wind.President Joe Biden set an ambitious target for the US to deploy 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind energy by 2030 — a plan widely considered lofty under any administration. Offshore wind projects are an important cargo source for multipurpose vessels (MPVs) and breakbulk cargo ports. “You’re never going to install at that magnitude,” Whitman said at the forum, held last week. “The number of turbines that have to go in the water can’t even come close to that.” Whitman pointed to coastal New England, where Foss Offshore Wind has been transporting cargo for the 64-turbine Vineyard Wind project. “In Massachusetts, we have two, maybe three of these 30-acre ports that are able to do this,” he said.Whitman said the sector needs a more robust supply chain and regional port facilities to support and move massive offshore wind turbines and equipment.“That’s not a two-year aspiration or even a four-year aspiration,” he said. “That’s a decades-in-the-making aspiration.” <h3>Business case for offshore wind</h3>Jamie Lescinski, the US offshore wind business development director for Dutch marine engineering and project firm Boskalis, said she is “cautiously optimistic” about the offshore wind market given the current pipeline of projects that have been approved through 2028, along with leases that have been auctioned off and are awaiting federal approvals. “Once you hit 2028, you then have more projects that need to be built simultaneously than the supply chain can handle,” she said. When asked what happens if permitting comes to a halt over the next four years, Lescinski said activity levels could drop off at the start of the next decade, noting “2030 is kind of the precipice.” Offshore wind developers stand to benefit from building a rapport with operators and other offshore energy stakeholders that have existing relationships with their state’s Congressional delegates, said Otto Candies III, chairman and CEO of Louisiana-based offshore vessel owner and operator Otto Candies.“I’d love to see developers sit down with the stakeholders and allow us to leverage those relationships into something that can strengthen the industry,” he said.Candies cited Louisiana vessel operators’ long-standing relationships with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, both Republicans from Louisiana. “Certainly, I know that traditional oil and gas operators want to see that industry flourish,” he said. “It’s another source of business for us, and another way for us to invest some money.” The best-case scenario is a slowdown for the industry, whereas the worst-case scenario is that offshore wind development comes to a halt, said Michael Landry, director of New York-based Liberty Green Logistics. However, Landry said he is optimistic that there are enough projects under way to keep things moving. “We need to look at this as an American industry and leverage our expertise,” he said.The key, Whitman said, will be for the industry to focus on offshore wind as an avenue to US energy independence and job creation, rather than letting the sector’s development become an adversarial proposition for politicians. “I really believe that we are a hard capitalist society,” he said. “There is a lot of money to be made in this industry. The market demand is there.” Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com</a>. </div>

An inadequate domestic supply chain poses greater challenges to developing the US offshore wind sector than politics, a panel of offshore wind and marine transport leaders told attendees at the 2024 Marine Money finance forum in New Orleans. Although US President-elect Donald Trump has promised he would sign an executive order to stop offshore wind projects “on day one” of taking office, panelists said they were cautiously optimistic that momentum from existing projects and leases could help ease the incoming administration’s resistance to offshore wind development. “What I’m interested in is how do we build a domestic supply chain — ports, vessels, people, equipment — capable of doing this? Because this is cutting edge-stuff. And the scale of it is wild,” said Joel Whitman, president of Massachusetts-based services provider Foss Offshore Wind. President Joe Biden set an ambitious target for the US to deploy 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind energy by 2030 — a plan widely considered lofty under any administration. Offshore wind projects are an important cargo source for multipurpose vessels (MPVs) and breakbulk cargo ports. “You’re never going to install at that magnitude,” Whitman said at the forum, held last week. “The number of turbines that have to go in the water can’t even come close to that.” Whitman pointed to coastal New England, where Foss Offshore Wind has been transporting cargo for the 64-turbine Vineyard Wind project. “In Massachusetts, we have two, maybe three of these 30-acre ports that are able to do this,” he said. Whitman said the sector needs a more robust supply chain and regional port facilities to support and move massive offshore wind turbines and equipment. “That’s not a two-year aspiration or even a four-year aspiration,” he said. “That’s a decades-in-the-making aspiration.” Business case for offshore wind Jamie Lescinski, the US offshore wind business development director for Dutch marine engineering and project firm Boskalis, said she is “cautiously optimistic” about the offshore wind market given the current pipeline of projects that have been approved through 2028, along with leases that have been auctioned off and are awaiting federal approvals. “Once you hit 2028, you then have more projects that need to be built simultaneously than the supply chain can handle,” she said. When asked what happens if permitting comes to a halt over the next four years, Lescinski said activity levels could drop off at the start of the next decade, noting “2030 is kind of the precipice.” Offshore wind developers stand to benefit from building a rapport with operators and other offshore energy stakeholders that have existing relationships with their state’s Congressional delegates, said Otto Candies III, chairman and CEO of Louisiana-based offshore vessel owner and operator Otto Candies. “I’d love to see developers sit down with the stakeholders and allow us to leverage those relationships into something that can strengthen the industry,” he said. Candies cited Louisiana vessel operators’ long-standing relationships with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, both Republicans from Louisiana. “Certainly, I know that traditional oil and gas operators want to see that industry flourish,” he said. “It’s another source of business for us, and another way for us to invest some money.” The best-case scenario is a slowdown for the industry, whereas the worst-case scenario is that offshore wind development comes to a halt, said Michael Landry, director of New York-based Liberty Green Logistics. However, Landry said he is optimistic that there are enough projects under way to keep things moving. “We need to look at this as an American industry and leverage our expertise,” he said. The key, Whitman said, will be for the industry to focus on offshore wind as an avenue to US energy independence and job creation, rather than letting the sector’s development become an adversarial proposition for politicians. “I really believe that we are a hard capitalist society,” he said. “There is a lot of money to be made in this industry. The market demand is there.” Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Energy projects

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Supply chain needs compete with political concerns for US offshore wind

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Brokers would have to make transaction records, including shipper rates, available to trucking companies electronically and the requirements could supersede non-disclosure agreements, according to a proposed rule from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. </div>

Brokers would have to make transaction records, including shipper rates, available to trucking companies electronically and the requirements could supersede non-disclosure agreements, according to a proposed rule from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

<div class="phx-topic">A regulation that would let US trucking companies access and review rates shippers pay to brokers is moving closer to the books, despite protests by logistics providers. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) released a proposed rule Wednesday that would amend freight broker recordkeeping requirements established by the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) in the 1940s and last amended in 1980. The proposed rule, four years in the making, could create conflict between brokers and shippers that insist on non-disclosure clauses in their contracts. Its potential impact on truckload spot rates is unclear, especially in a market still flush with capacity. “Some motor carriers believe that increased broker transparency would have a material effect on negotiated freight rates,” the FMCSA said in its proposed rulemaking, published in the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2024-11-20/pdf/2024-27115.pdf">Nov. 20 Federal Register</a>. “The agency believes that other market factors, rather than the availability of additional information through broker transparency, are likely dominant in setting freight rates.” The rulemaking would require brokers to keep electronic records of their freight transactions and make those records available to carriers and shippers electronically within 48 hours of a request. The FMCSA is also proposing standards for those transactional records, requiring them to contain all charges and payments connected to the shipment, including a description, amount and date, as well as any claims filed by shippers for damages or delays. The proposal did not outright ban clauses in carrier contracts with brokers waiving what the regulation defines as a “right to review” transaction data. Instead, it changes that carrier “right” to a broker “regulatory obligation” to provide the data. That may negate waivers imposed by brokers, and possibly non-disclosure agreements with shippers. “A regulated entity must adhere to the regulations and cannot disguise its regulatory obligations as contractual ones,” the FMCSA said in its proposal. <h3>A deep-rooted dispute </h3>The rulemaking is rooted in long-running disputes that owner-operators and small trucking firms have with freight brokers over broker margins and rates paid to carriers. In the first half of 2020, when spot rates plunged to as low as $1.32 per mile during the COVID-19 pandemic, many small truckers protested what they claimed was “price gouging” or profiteering by brokers. Those protests led to rulemaking petitions from the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) and the Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC). The FMCSA accepted those petitions and began work on the proposed rule. “We appreciate that FMCSA incorporated input from our petition, including a requirement to make records available electronically and emphasizing that brokers have a duty to comply with regulations,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a statement. But the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), representing brokers and third-party logistics providers, blasted the proposal, calling it “un-American.” “This rule has no place in today’s highly transparent marketplace,” TIA said in a statement. “Regulations like these threaten to erode the foundations of American capitalism, stifling innovation and efficiency.” <h3>Measuring profit margins </h3>It’s no secret that the rates shippers pay to brokers are higher than the rates brokers pay carriers. The difference between those rates is the broker’s gross profit margin. The Journal of Commerce average shipper paid spot rate in October was $2.19 per mile, including fuel surcharges. The DAT Freight &amp; Analytics average US dry van rate with fuel surcharges was $2.02 per mile in the same period — revealing a 17-cent difference. The proposed rule would allow carriers to examine that margin by transaction. If a carrier argues a broker’s margin on a particular load was too high, that carrier could ask for a higher rate for future loads, but the broker could also simply offer loads to another carrier. Brokers argue that the market sets rates. In 2020, as in 2024, there was more supply in the form of drivers and carriers than there was demand for freight, which depressed rates. The FMCSA did not rule out the possibility that motor carriers and shippers could use broker transparency information in rate negotiation with brokers, but will seek further comment on the issue. Comments on the proposal are due on Jan. 21, 2025. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A regulation that would let US trucking companies access and review rates shippers pay to brokers is moving closer to the books, despite protests by logistics providers. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) released a proposed rule Wednesday that would amend freight broker recordkeeping requirements established by the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) in the 1940s and last amended in 1980. The proposed rule, four years in the making, could create conflict between brokers and shippers that insist on non-disclosure clauses in their contracts. Its potential impact on truckload spot rates is unclear, especially in a market still flush with capacity. “Some motor carriers believe that increased broker transparency would have a material effect on negotiated freight rates,” the FMCSA said in its proposed rulemaking, published in the Nov. 20 Federal Register . “The agency believes that other market factors, rather than the availability of additional information through broker transparency, are likely dominant in setting freight rates.” The rulemaking would require brokers to keep electronic records of their freight transactions and make those records available to carriers and shippers electronically within 48 hours of a request. The FMCSA is also proposing standards for those transactional records, requiring them to contain all charges and payments connected to the shipment, including a description, amount and date, as well as any claims filed by shippers for damages or delays. The proposal did not outright ban clauses in carrier contracts with brokers waiving what the regulation defines as a “right to review” transaction data. Instead, it changes that carrier “right” to a broker “regulatory obligation” to provide the data. That may negate waivers imposed by brokers, and possibly non-disclosure agreements with shippers. “A regulated entity must adhere to the regulations and cannot disguise its regulatory obligations as contractual ones,” the FMCSA said in its proposal. A deep-rooted dispute The rulemaking is rooted in long-running disputes that owner-operators and small trucking firms have with freight brokers over broker margins and rates paid to carriers. In the first half of 2020, when spot rates plunged to as low as $1.32 per mile during the COVID-19 pandemic, many small truckers protested what they claimed was “price gouging” or profiteering by brokers. Those protests led to rulemaking petitions from the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) and the Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC). The FMCSA accepted those petitions and began work on the proposed rule. “We appreciate that FMCSA incorporated input from our petition, including a requirement to make records available electronically and emphasizing that brokers have a duty to comply with regulations,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a statement. But the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), representing brokers and third-party logistics providers, blasted the proposal, calling it “un-American.” “This rule has no place in today’s highly transparent marketplace,” TIA said in a statement. “Regulations like these threaten to erode the foundations of American capitalism, stifling innovation and efficiency.” Measuring profit margins It’s no secret that the rates shippers pay to brokers are higher than the rates brokers pay carriers. The difference between those rates is the broker’s gross profit margin. The Journal of Commerce average shipper paid spot rate in October was $2.19 per mile, including fuel surcharges. The DAT Freight & Analytics average US dry van rate with fuel surcharges was $2.02 per mile in the same period — revealing a 17-cent difference. The proposed rule would allow carriers to examine that margin by transaction. If a carrier argues a broker’s margin on a particular load was too high, that carrier could ask for a higher rate for future loads, but the broker could also simply offer loads to another carrier. Brokers argue that the market sets rates. In 2020, as in 2024, there was more supply in the form of drivers and carriers than there was demand for freight, which depressed rates. The FMCSA did not rule out the possibility that motor carriers and shippers could use broker transparency information in rate negotiation with brokers, but will seek further comment on the issue. Comments on the proposal are due on Jan. 21, 2025. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Regulator proposes tougher transparency requirements for US freight brokers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">NVOs will enter 2025 hoping that their experience this year with carriers taking a get-tough approach to their business dealings was merely cyclical, a product of an unusual market following the Red Sea diversions and an early peak season.</div>

NVOs will enter 2025 hoping that their experience this year with carriers taking a get-tough approach to their business dealings was merely cyclical, a product of an unusual market following the Red Sea diversions and an early peak season.

<div class="phx-topic">Non-vessel-operating common carriers (NVOs) will look back on 2024 as a challenging year in two key respects: it was when carriers, seizing on an unexpectedly favorable market, got tough in demanding more spot cargo as a condition for granting contracts to NVOs’ customers, while putting further pressure on NVOs by closely monitoring their adherence to those contracts. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5821197_0.1.jpg"></img></div>“In 2024, ocean carriers began tightening their grip on the market,” analyst Jon Monroe wrote on Nov. 19. “They became more selective with NVOCC contracts, making ‘named account’ deals, [i.e.] contracts reserved for large, high-volume customers, harder to secure.” NVOs will go into 2025 hoping that experience was merely cyclical, a product of an unusual market following the Red Sea diversions and an early peak season. For beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), the idea that NVOs are coming under pressure from carriers is relevant in terms of NVOs’ ability to access vessel space. Indeed, some BCOs have recently raised concerns to the Journal of Commerce about the presence in their NVO contracts of clauses absolving the NVO if space can’t be procured. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee the market will weaken in the New Year even as a glut of capacity threatens to weigh on the market. Some NVOs contacted by the Journal of Commerce believe a softening is likely next year — and may already have begun. But others believe the stretch of good fortune for carriers — seen in a fully deployed fleet and still-elevated spot rates — hasn’t run its course and won’t until the Suez becomes a safe route again, whereupon capacity will pour back into the market. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc suggested as such in a recent earnings call, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/scrapping-slow-steaming-demand-will-limit-capacity-overhang-clerc-5785020">noting carriers have untapped levers to forestall overcapacity</a>. Maersk “highlighted that supply discipline in the form of slow steaming, blanked sailings and scrapping could emerge once the market returns to a normal level of profitability,” Parash Jain, HSBC Commercial Banking’s global head of transport and logistics research and a TPM25 speaker, wrote on Nov. 1. <h3>Carriers’ evolving positions on NVO cargo </h3>For NVOs, as long as carriers are in control such that spot rates end up higher than contract rates, carriers will demand more spot market cargo, also called freight-all-kinds (FAK), as the price for granting NVOs’ contract, or named account rates (NAC), for their BCO customers. “The ratio between nominated account rates and FAK rates varies among different carriers. However, we are observing an increasing demand for a more balanced approach as we approach 2025,” meaning carriers seeking a larger share of FAK cargo from NVOs, said Marc Meier, global head of ocean freight at Toll Global Forwarding. Others see an already softening market reflected in carriers’ evolving positions relative to NVO cargo. “Carriers have taken such a policy each year during annual negotiations on NAC rates to request for at least 50-50 on NAC/FAK bookings, but when space is tighter, some even ask for 4 to 1 (FAK to NAC) to even 5 to 1 as happened in June-July of this year,” said Christian Sur, executive vice president for ocean freight/contract logistics at Unique Logistics International. “We are back to more 1 to 1 or even a better ratio to receive NAC space.” Others see it similarly, given that new tonnage deliveries will add 11% to existing capacity by the end of 2024 and another 6% next year, growth only minimally reduced by scrapping at least so far, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. “NVOCCs could find themselves in a more favorable position in 2025 as the market shifts and carriers face increased competition to fill excess vessel capacity,” Monroe wrote on Nov. 19. “With the surge of available capacity in the ocean freight market, carriers are likely to adopt more flexible and reasonable terms for NVOCCs in order to maintain their vessel utilization.” <h3>Carriers monitoring NVOs’ use of NAC rates </h3>Carriers’ NVO policies this year forced some NVOs to be more aggressive in scrounging up FAK cargo, often from the smaller end of the shipper market that is too small to secure contract rates. But while market cyclicality might make carriers hungry for NVO cargo, what will likely not change so fast is carriers’ increasingly sophisticated monitoring of NVOs’ use of named account rates, especially when spot rates exceed contract rates. That monitoring has disrupted longstanding practice under which NVOs — when contract rates fall below spot rates — utilize named account rates to ship multiple shippers’ cargo, not just the shipper named in the account, thereby taking advantage of lower buy rates than were available on the open market. Not anymore, as carriers have developed technology and systems enabling them to closely monitor NVO named account volumes. When they see commodities or volumes shipped beyond what was agreed in an NAC contract, or the NVO not providing agreed-upon volumes in a given month, they intervene. In a soft market, carriers may pressure NVOs less but won’t stop monitoring the volumes. That is something unlikely to change irrespective of where the market goes. Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Non-vessel-operating common carriers (NVOs) will look back on 2024 as a challenging year in two key respects: it was when carriers, seizing on an unexpectedly favorable market, got tough in demanding more spot cargo as a condition for granting contracts to NVOs’ customers, while putting further pressure on NVOs by closely monitoring their adherence to those contracts. “In 2024, ocean carriers began tightening their grip on the market,” analyst Jon Monroe wrote on Nov. 19. “They became more selective with NVOCC contracts, making ‘named account’ deals, [i.e.] contracts reserved for large, high-volume customers, harder to secure.” NVOs will go into 2025 hoping that experience was merely cyclical, a product of an unusual market following the Red Sea diversions and an early peak season. For beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), the idea that NVOs are coming under pressure from carriers is relevant in terms of NVOs’ ability to access vessel space. Indeed, some BCOs have recently raised concerns to the Journal of Commerce about the presence in their NVO contracts of clauses absolving the NVO if space can’t be procured. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee the market will weaken in the New Year even as a glut of capacity threatens to weigh on the market. Some NVOs contacted by the Journal of Commerce believe a softening is likely next year — and may already have begun. But others believe the stretch of good fortune for carriers — seen in a fully deployed fleet and still-elevated spot rates — hasn’t run its course and won’t until the Suez becomes a safe route again, whereupon capacity will pour back into the market. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc suggested as such in a recent earnings call, noting carriers have untapped levers to forestall overcapacity . Maersk “highlighted that supply discipline in the form of slow steaming, blanked sailings and scrapping could emerge once the market returns to a normal level of profitability,” Parash Jain, HSBC Commercial Banking’s global head of transport and logistics research and a TPM25 speaker, wrote on Nov. 1. Carriers’ evolving positions on NVO cargo For NVOs, as long as carriers are in control such that spot rates end up higher than contract rates, carriers will demand more spot market cargo, also called freight-all-kinds (FAK), as the price for granting NVOs’ contract, or named account rates (NAC), for their BCO customers. “The ratio between nominated account rates and FAK rates varies among different carriers. However, we are observing an increasing demand for a more balanced approach as we approach 2025,” meaning carriers seeking a larger share of FAK cargo from NVOs, said Marc Meier, global head of ocean freight at Toll Global Forwarding. Others see an already softening market reflected in carriers’ evolving positions relative to NVO cargo. “Carriers have taken such a policy each year during annual negotiations on NAC rates to request for at least 50-50 on NAC/FAK bookings, but when space is tighter, some even ask for 4 to 1 (FAK to NAC) to even 5 to 1 as happened in June-July of this year,” said Christian Sur, executive vice president for ocean freight/contract logistics at Unique Logistics International. “We are back to more 1 to 1 or even a better ratio to receive NAC space.” Others see it similarly, given that new tonnage deliveries will add 11% to existing capacity by the end of 2024 and another 6% next year, growth only minimally reduced by scrapping at least so far, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. “NVOCCs could find themselves in a more favorable position in 2025 as the market shifts and carriers face increased competition to fill excess vessel capacity,” Monroe wrote on Nov. 19. “With the surge of available capacity in the ocean freight market, carriers are likely to adopt more flexible and reasonable terms for NVOCCs in order to maintain their vessel utilization.” Carriers monitoring NVOs’ use of NAC rates Carriers’ NVO policies this year forced some NVOs to be more aggressive in scrounging up FAK cargo, often from the smaller end of the shipper market that is too small to secure contract rates. But while market cyclicality might make carriers hungry for NVO cargo, what will likely not change so fast is carriers’ increasingly sophisticated monitoring of NVOs’ use of named account rates, especially when spot rates exceed contract rates. That monitoring has disrupted longstanding practice under which NVOs — when contract rates fall below spot rates — utilize named account rates to ship multiple shippers’ cargo, not just the shipper named in the account, thereby taking advantage of lower buy rates than were available on the open market. Not anymore, as carriers have developed technology and systems enabling them to closely monitor NVO named account volumes. When they see commodities or volumes shipped beyond what was agreed in an NAC contract, or the NVO not providing agreed-upon volumes in a given month, they intervene. In a soft market, carriers may pressure NVOs less but won’t stop monitoring the volumes. That is something unlikely to change irrespective of where the market goes. Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Forwarding

NVOs eager to get past carriers’ tight grip on unexpectedly favorable market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">MPV operators are hopeful the incoming Trump administration will build on Biden’s support for nuclear power generation, which would boost cargo volumes.</div>

MPV operators are hopeful the incoming Trump administration will build on Biden’s support for nuclear power generation, which would boost cargo volumes.

<div class="phx-topic">A commitment to meeting climate goals even as energy demand escalates is supercharging the outlook for nuclear power as a clean and reliable energy source. A plan to triple the US’ current net nuclear power generation capacity of about 97 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, including building 200 GW of new net capacity, was announced by the Biden administration on Nov. 12. Capacity gains will come from new power plants, upgrades to existing reactors, and reactivated retired reactors. Nuclear projects are a promising source of future cargo for the heavy-lift and multipurpose vessel (MPV) sector.Nuclear power generation enjoys broad bipartisan support, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute, and the first Trump administration supported nuclear power. However, whether the new Trump administration will continue its support is hard to call, as Trump has expressed both support of small modular reactors (SMRs) and skepticism about the sector more broadly, according to power industry publication Utility Dive. While this ambiguity makes the immediate US outlook for the sector difficult to forecast, there is no doubt that new manufacturing, AI and high-performance computing data centers, which need reliable energy 24/7, have the potential to increase total power demand in the US by as much as 20% through 2034 alone, according to a September report from the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Nuclear Energy.“Nuclear is one of the few options that can reliably deliver [clean energy] at this scale,” the report said.The data centers necessary to power AI gobble up enormous amounts of electrical power, much of which is currently generated by coal and oil, according to Mason Lester, principal research analyst at S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights. S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.The DOE is providing substantial funding for extending and restarting existing nuclear operations and supporting the development of advanced nuclear or SMRs. Both developments would boost project cargo logistics demand.Managing transport related to refurbishing existing nuclear reactors is not unusual in project logistics, but it is likely to increase in importance as the emphasis shifts from retiring reactors to continuing or even restarting operations. The existing stock of reactors is aging, and many will need significant refurbishment during the 2030s if the goal is to extend their life to 80 years, Lester said.<h3>Heavy funding for SMR startups</h3>Technology giant Microsoft plans to eventually buy power from what is now a retired unit of Constellation Energy’s nuclear facility at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. Bringing the facility back to life could cost as much as $1.6 billion, according to Politico subsidiary E&amp;E News.In addition, government and private investors are pouring massive amounts of funding at SMR startups. Amazon, for example, is investing $500 million in several development projects, and the DOE has awarded advanced nuclear power developer TerraPower almost $2 billion for the Natrium SMR project. Bill Gates, a co-founder of TerraPower, has also invested some $1 billion in the company, according to reports from E&amp;E News. Four SMRs are currently in development at the Darlington site in Ontario, Canada, but will not be online until at least 2028, or “more likely 2030,” Lester said. These are test projects, with developers “tweaking as they go,” he explained.The eventual goal is to modularize SMRs, which require the same components as traditional nuclear reactors but on a smaller scale, Lester added.Whether this flush of nuclear enthusiasm will hold depends on whether SMRs can be built quickly and efficiently, Lester said.“There is a lot of money being thrown at nuclear design companies who have never built a reactor but have a design on paper,” he said. If pilot projects are successful, utilities and other power consumers will be deeply interested, “but it’s a matter of getting these first three or four going in North America.”Contact Janet Nodar at <a href="mailto:janet.nodar@spglobal.com">janet.nodar@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A commitment to meeting climate goals even as energy demand escalates is supercharging the outlook for nuclear power as a clean and reliable energy source. A plan to triple the US’ current net nuclear power generation capacity of about 97 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, including building 200 GW of new net capacity, was announced by the Biden administration on Nov. 12. Capacity gains will come from new power plants, upgrades to existing reactors, and reactivated retired reactors. Nuclear projects are a promising source of future cargo for the heavy-lift and multipurpose vessel (MPV) sector. Nuclear power generation enjoys broad bipartisan support, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute, and the first Trump administration supported nuclear power. However, whether the new Trump administration will continue its support is hard to call, as Trump has expressed both support of small modular reactors (SMRs) and skepticism about the sector more broadly, according to power industry publication Utility Dive. While this ambiguity makes the immediate US outlook for the sector difficult to forecast, there is no doubt that new manufacturing, AI and high-performance computing data centers, which need reliable energy 24/7, have the potential to increase total power demand in the US by as much as 20% through 2034 alone, according to a September report from the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Nuclear Energy. “Nuclear is one of the few options that can reliably deliver [clean energy] at this scale,” the report said. The data centers necessary to power AI gobble up enormous amounts of electrical power, much of which is currently generated by coal and oil, according to Mason Lester, principal research analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. The DOE is providing substantial funding for extending and restarting existing nuclear operations and supporting the development of advanced nuclear or SMRs. Both developments would boost project cargo logistics demand. Managing transport related to refurbishing existing nuclear reactors is not unusual in project logistics, but it is likely to increase in importance as the emphasis shifts from retiring reactors to continuing or even restarting operations. The existing stock of reactors is aging, and many will need significant refurbishment during the 2030s if the goal is to extend their life to 80 years, Lester said. Heavy funding for SMR startups Technology giant Microsoft plans to eventually buy power from what is now a retired unit of Constellation Energy’s nuclear facility at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. Bringing the facility back to life could cost as much as $1.6 billion, according to Politico subsidiary E&E News. In addition, government and private investors are pouring massive amounts of funding at SMR startups. Amazon, for example, is investing $500 million in several development projects, and the DOE has awarded advanced nuclear power developer TerraPower almost $2 billion for the Natrium SMR project. Bill Gates, a co-founder of TerraPower, has also invested some $1 billion in the company, according to reports from E&E News. Four SMRs are currently in development at the Darlington site in Ontario, Canada, but will not be online until at least 2028, or “more likely 2030,” Lester said. These are test projects, with developers “tweaking as they go,” he explained. The eventual goal is to modularize SMRs, which require the same components as traditional nuclear reactors but on a smaller scale, Lester added. Whether this flush of nuclear enthusiasm will hold depends on whether SMRs can be built quickly and efficiently, Lester said. “There is a lot of money being thrown at nuclear design companies who have never built a reactor but have a design on paper,” he said. If pilot projects are successful, utilities and other power consumers will be deeply interested, “but it’s a matter of getting these first three or four going in North America.” Contact Janet Nodar at janet.nodar@spglobal.com .

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Uncertain nuclear outlook in US clouds demand picture for MPV sector

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

SSA Marine Mexico has made significant strides in modernizing its infrastructure at the Port of Manzanillo, investing $15 million to enhance operational efficiency and sustainability at its facilities. This move is part of the company's broader strategy to remain at the forefront of the shipping and logistics industry. •	Strengthening Sustainability with Advanced Technology <figure class="joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left"><img src="/content-assets/1730488295264_Cranes%20arrival%20to%20TEC%20I.png" alt="Cranes arrival to TEC I" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"></figure> In July, SSA Marine Mexico added seven state-of-the-art E-RTG (Electric Rubber-Tired Gantry) cranes to its fleet, valued at $14 million. These advanced cranes were distributed across its two terminals: four cranes were assigned to the Multipurpose Terminal, and three to the Specialized Container Terminal I. What sets these cranes apart is their dual-operation capability, allowing them to function either on electric power or diesel fuel. This innovation plays a critical role in reducing the environmental impact of operations, contributing to a 7% increase in energy efficiency. This efficiency improvement is equivalent to eliminating nearly 4,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually, underscoring SSA Marine Mexico's commitment to sustainability. Through this acquisition, SSA Marine Mexico not only enhances its cargo-handling capabilities but also reinforces its leadership in integrating cutting-edge, eco-friendly technology in the maritime industry. The company continues to push the boundaries of efficiency and sustainability, ensuring long-term value for both its customers and the environment. •	Upgraded Facilities to Meet Growing Demand <figure class="joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left"><img src="/content-assets/1730488350634_Multipurpose%20terminal.png" alt="Multipurpose Terminal" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"></figure> In addition to the new cranes, SSA Marine Mexico has completed crucial modernization and repair work across its Multipurpose Terminal and Specialized Facility at the Port of Manzanillo. This $1 million investment targeted critical infrastructure enhancements, focusing on both structural integrity and operational functionality. Key improvements included leveling approximately 12,000 square meters in the dock area, along with the removal of outdated concrete curbs and asphalt layers. The upgraded space now features high-resistance pavers designed to optimize water drainage and prevent pooling, ensuring safer and more efficient operations. Moreover, the Specialized Facility saw significant upgrades, including the leveling of key warehouse areas to facilitate smoother cargo handling processes. These infrastructure improvements directly enhance the handling of TEUS (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit containers), further demonstrating SSA Marine Mexico's unwavering commitment to continuous modernization, operational safety, and efficiency. With these initiatives, SSA Marine Mexico is well-positioned to meet the growing demands of the global shipping industry while setting new standards in sustainable port operations. LINK:<a href="https://www.ssamarine.mx/ssa-ing/index" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link"> https://www.ssamarine.mx/ssa-ing/index</a>

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SSA Marine Mexico Modernizes Facilities with $15 Million Investment 

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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