<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Global air cargo revenue will rise to $63 billion in 2015 from an estimated $60 billion this year, but will remain roughly 5 percent lower than in 2010, according to the International Air Transport Association.
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Global air cargo revenue will rise to $63 billion in 2015 from an estimated $60 billion this year, but will remain roughly 5 percent lower than in 2010, according to the International Air Transport Association.

<div>Global air cargo revenue will rise to $63 billion in 2015 from an estimated $60 billion this year, but will remain roughly 5 percent lower than in 2010, according to the International Air Transport Association.Freight volume is expected to increase by 4.5 percent next year to 53.5 million metric tons, slightly ahead of the estimated 4.1 percent growth this year, the Geneva-based industry body said.Tumbling oil prices and stronger economic growth will boost the industry’s net profit to $25 billion in 2015, the highest in more than five years, from an estimated $19.9 billion this year. ATA was more cautious...

Global air cargo revenue will rise to $63 billion in 2015 from an estimated $60 billion this year, but will remain roughly 5 percent lower than in 2010, according to the International Air Transport Association. Freight volume is expected to increase by 4.5 percent next year to 53.5 million metric tons, slightly ahead of the estimated 4.1 percent growth this year, the Geneva-based industry body said. Tumbling oil prices and stronger economic growth will boost the industry’s net profit to $25 billion in 2015, the highest in more than five years, from an estimated $19.9 billion this year. ATA was more cautious about the outlook for the cargo sector. “The air cargo business has faced weak markets and increasing competition since 2011. There has been an uptick in demand recently but cargo remains a tough business.” Freight rates likely will decline by 5.8 percent in 2015, IATA said. Global cargo revenue peaked at $67 billion in 2011 and stalled at $60 billion in 2013 and in 2014, unchanged from 2007 levels. The projected $25 billion industry wide profit in 2015 will equate to a margin of 3.2 percent compared with 3.1 percent in 2010. The industry’s fuel bill will fall to $192 billion in 2015 from an expected $204 billion this year, IATA said. “The industry outlook is improving. The global economy continues to recover and the fall in oil prices should strengthen the upturn next year.” IATA Director-General Tony Tyler said. But the industry still faces a number of risks including political unrest, conflicts and some weak regional economies, he cautioned. And “a 3.2 percent net profit margin does not leave much room for deterioration in the external environment before profits are hit,” Tyler said. Contact Bruce Barnard at brucebarnard47@hotmail.com .

Air Cargo Forwarder News

IATA: Global cargo revenue will rise in 2015 but rates will fall

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">US and Canadian regulators have used different standards to determine whether chassis made by a Vietnamese supplier ran contrary to trade regulations directed at China.</div>

US and Canadian regulators have used different standards to determine whether chassis made by a Vietnamese supplier ran contrary to trade regulations directed at China.

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<div class="phx-topic">Canadian regulators have found that British Columbia-based chassis lessor Ocean Trailer did not illegally circumvent crippling antidumping and countervailing duties levied on China when it purchased equipment from a Vietnamese supplier, a preliminary decision ahead of a final ruling expected in May. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) issued its preliminary decision Wednesday, clearing Ocean Trailer of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/canadian-investigation-again-raises-questions-of-chinese-chassis-origin-5874539">allegations brought by its competitor</a>, Max-Atlas Equipment International, which argued that the chassis were largely made with Chinese components and therefore should be treated as Chinese in origin. “Ocean Trailer has maintained from the beginning of this investigation we were confident that we would be absolved of any wrongdoing,” Mack Keay, Ocean Trailer’s chief operating officer, told the Journal of Commerce. “We are happy with the decision and look forward to putting this behind us, and to continue to provide high-quality container chassis to our customers.” The complaint, filed last November, had much in common with a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-commerce-department-rejects-pitts-appeal-in-marine-chassis-case-5200425">US case involving CIE Manufacturing</a> and a subsidiary of Pitts Enterprises named Dorsey Intermodal in 2023. While both cases centered on Truong Hai Auto Corporation (THACO) of Vietnam, a chassis manufacturer, the US and Canadian governments reached different conclusions. In the US, the Customs and Border Protection (CPB) investigation determined between 59% and 69% of the chassis components were sourced from China. The agency ruled that Pitts Enterprises failed to disclose the Chinese origin of key subcomponents and that THACO had not substantially transformed them in Vietnam. As a result, the chassis were deemed to originate in China and subject to duties. CBSA reached a different conclusion following an on-site inspection of THACO’s facilities in Vietnam last month. Canadian investigators found THACO’s manufacturing “is not done using parts or components that are in ‘major portion’ from China,” and that the assembly, blasting, coating, painting and welding in Vietnam constitutes a significant transformation to a final chassis. The conclusion was Ocean Trailer did not violate any regulations and so the chassis were not subject to duties. Keay said Ocean Trailer did “due diligence” before partnering with THACO. <h3>Canadian ruling could impact US chassis manufacturers </h3>Ripple waves of the preliminary ruling, once finalized, could spread to the US. Pitts Enterprises lost an appeal and was expelled from the coalition of US chassis manufacturers that had lobbied for the duties in 2020. A new coalition was formed with the remaining members, Cheetah Chassis and Stoughton Trailers, which <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-chassis-manufacturers-targeting-makers-in-mexico-thailand-and-vietnam-5952748">filed a new case in February</a> to expand the crippling duties to Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam. The new coalition singled out the material injury that THACO’s operations in Vietnam allegedly cause US manufacturing. Canada was not one of the countries singled out in the ongoing US case. If Cheetah and Stoughton are successful when a preliminary decision is issued this summer, then it would deal a serious blow to importers such as CIE Manufacturing and Hyundai Translead. If trade barriers between the US and Canada were to ease while punitive duties were assessed on CIE and Hyundai Translead, then Max Atlas and Ocean Trailer could emerge as a competitive northern supplier to American truckers, logistics companies and cargo owners seeking to increase supply chain resiliency. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a></div>

Canadian regulators have found that British Columbia-based chassis lessor Ocean Trailer did not illegally circumvent crippling antidumping and countervailing duties levied on China when it purchased equipment from a Vietnamese supplier, a preliminary decision ahead of a final ruling expected in May. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) issued its preliminary decision Wednesday, clearing Ocean Trailer of allegations brought by its competitor , Max-Atlas Equipment International, which argued that the chassis were largely made with Chinese components and therefore should be treated as Chinese in origin. “Ocean Trailer has maintained from the beginning of this investigation we were confident that we would be absolved of any wrongdoing,” Mack Keay, Ocean Trailer’s chief operating officer, told the Journal of Commerce. “We are happy with the decision and look forward to putting this behind us, and to continue to provide high-quality container chassis to our customers.” The complaint, filed last November, had much in common with a US case involving CIE Manufacturing and a subsidiary of Pitts Enterprises named Dorsey Intermodal in 2023. While both cases centered on Truong Hai Auto Corporation (THACO) of Vietnam, a chassis manufacturer, the US and Canadian governments reached different conclusions. In the US, the Customs and Border Protection (CPB) investigation determined between 59% and 69% of the chassis components were sourced from China. The agency ruled that Pitts Enterprises failed to disclose the Chinese origin of key subcomponents and that THACO had not substantially transformed them in Vietnam. As a result, the chassis were deemed to originate in China and subject to duties. CBSA reached a different conclusion following an on-site inspection of THACO’s facilities in Vietnam last month. Canadian investigators found THACO’s manufacturing “is not done using parts or components that are in ‘major portion’ from China,” and that the assembly, blasting, coating, painting and welding in Vietnam constitutes a significant transformation to a final chassis. The conclusion was Ocean Trailer did not violate any regulations and so the chassis were not subject to duties. Keay said Ocean Trailer did “due diligence” before partnering with THACO. Canadian ruling could impact US chassis manufacturers Ripple waves of the preliminary ruling, once finalized, could spread to the US. Pitts Enterprises lost an appeal and was expelled from the coalition of US chassis manufacturers that had lobbied for the duties in 2020. A new coalition was formed with the remaining members, Cheetah Chassis and Stoughton Trailers, which filed a new case in February to expand the crippling duties to Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam. The new coalition singled out the material injury that THACO’s operations in Vietnam allegedly cause US manufacturing. Canada was not one of the countries singled out in the ongoing US case. If Cheetah and Stoughton are successful when a preliminary decision is issued this summer, then it would deal a serious blow to importers such as CIE Manufacturing and Hyundai Translead. If trade barriers between the US and Canada were to ease while punitive duties were assessed on CIE and Hyundai Translead, then Max Atlas and Ocean Trailer could emerge as a competitive northern supplier to American truckers, logistics companies and cargo owners seeking to increase supply chain resiliency. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Canadian regulators find Vietnamese chassis didn’t circumvent China duties

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A full evaluation of on-time performance will not be possible until July once the transition to the new deep-sea services has been completed, but data for February and March is positive for the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd alliance.</div>

A full evaluation of on-time performance will not be possible until July once the transition to the new deep-sea services has been completed, but data for February and March is positive for the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd alliance.

<div class="phx-topic">The Gemini Cooperation of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd is close to delivering on its public promise of 90%-plus schedule reliability since launching Feb. 1, eclipsing the on-time performance of rival alliances and standalone Mediterranean Shipping Co., analysts say. While ocean visibility provider eeSea and Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis both emphasised that a full evaluation of schedule reliability will not be possible until July once a full rotation of deep-sea services has been completed, the data for February and March has Gemini firmly in front. “Both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have been cautioning that it will take several months before the network is fully in place, but they’re off to a good start at 86% for Q1,” eeSea CEO Simon Sundboell said in a market update this week. “You would expect as much, though, as the network starts off with a blank slate, and all vessel positions at zero as they start out on their respective new services,” he added. The field for second-best is crowded, according to eeSea data. Premier Alliance, renamed from THE Alliance after Hapag-Lloyd’s departure and launched in February, recorded on-time performance in the first quarter of 31%, while Ocean Alliance, the only unchanged carrier grouping, was at 25%. MSC, which left the 2M Alliance to operate as a standalone carrier in February, recorded on-time performance of 22%. Non-alliance services are at 30% schedule reliability on east-west services, including the Middle East trades, according to eeSea. Gemini’s network is structured around a hub-and-spoke approach compared to the direct port-to-port services that MSC and the other alliances offer. When fully rolled out, there will be 28 shuttle services operating under the Gemini model, a factor that has raised concerns among shippers that have a historic dislike of transhipment. But the initial data is encouraging. <h3>Almost all shuttle services hitting 100% </h3>Sea-Intelligence analyzed the performance of the 15 Gemini shuttle services that had arrivals for February, with 10 deployed in Asia, two in Europe and three in the Indian subcontinent/Middle East. The overall schedule reliability for the services was 98.4% in February and all except two services in Asia had 100% schedule reliability. “While we do not yet have a complete rollout of shuttle services, we do have a substantial number of vessel arrivals covered, which is why we can say that these scores are somewhat representative of the general schedule reliability performance of the Gemini shuttle services,” Sea-Intelligence noted in its latest Sunday Spotlight newsletter. That the Gemini services were performing with such high reliability was not unexpected, according to Lars Mikael Jensen, head of hubs at Maersk-owned APM Terminals. “This is not something that we worked out around the coffee machine on a Friday afternoon,” Jensen told customers during a recent briefing on the new services. “This has been ongoing work for five years and in the prototypes, we could see that this would work.” Jensen said fewer port calls meant fewer delays, with the hubs in Gemini’s modular network serving as junction points and the shuttles providing the spokes to destination ports. “Essentially, the shuttles are ferries that go back and forth between hubs and destinations and by covering those ports we don't call direct anymore with the shuttles, we can isolate any problems when they appear and not impact the rest of the service,” he said. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Gemini Cooperation of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd is close to delivering on its public promise of 90%-plus schedule reliability since launching Feb. 1, eclipsing the on-time performance of rival alliances and standalone Mediterranean Shipping Co., analysts say. While ocean visibility provider eeSea and Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis both emphasised that a full evaluation of schedule reliability will not be possible until July once a full rotation of deep-sea services has been completed, the data for February and March has Gemini firmly in front. “Both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have been cautioning that it will take several months before the network is fully in place, but they’re off to a good start at 86% for Q1,” eeSea CEO Simon Sundboell said in a market update this week. “You would expect as much, though, as the network starts off with a blank slate, and all vessel positions at zero as they start out on their respective new services,” he added. The field for second-best is crowded, according to eeSea data. Premier Alliance, renamed from THE Alliance after Hapag-Lloyd’s departure and launched in February, recorded on-time performance in the first quarter of 31%, while Ocean Alliance, the only unchanged carrier grouping, was at 25%. MSC, which left the 2M Alliance to operate as a standalone carrier in February, recorded on-time performance of 22%. Non-alliance services are at 30% schedule reliability on east-west services, including the Middle East trades, according to eeSea. Gemini’s network is structured around a hub-and-spoke approach compared to the direct port-to-port services that MSC and the other alliances offer. When fully rolled out, there will be 28 shuttle services operating under the Gemini model, a factor that has raised concerns among shippers that have a historic dislike of transhipment. But the initial data is encouraging. Almost all shuttle services hitting 100% Sea-Intelligence analyzed the performance of the 15 Gemini shuttle services that had arrivals for February, with 10 deployed in Asia, two in Europe and three in the Indian subcontinent/Middle East. The overall schedule reliability for the services was 98.4% in February and all except two services in Asia had 100% schedule reliability. “While we do not yet have a complete rollout of shuttle services, we do have a substantial number of vessel arrivals covered, which is why we can say that these scores are somewhat representative of the general schedule reliability performance of the Gemini shuttle services,” Sea-Intelligence noted in its latest Sunday Spotlight newsletter. That the Gemini services were performing with such high reliability was not unexpected, according to Lars Mikael Jensen, head of hubs at Maersk-owned APM Terminals. “This is not something that we worked out around the coffee machine on a Friday afternoon,” Jensen told customers during a recent briefing on the new services. “This has been ongoing work for five years and in the prototypes, we could see that this would work.” Jensen said fewer port calls meant fewer delays, with the hubs in Gemini’s modular network serving as junction points and the shuttles providing the spokes to destination ports. “Essentially, the shuttles are ferries that go back and forth between hubs and destinations and by covering those ports we don't call direct anymore with the shuttles, we can isolate any problems when they appear and not impact the rest of the service,” he said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

Port News

Container lines

Trans-Atlantic

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

North American ports

International ports

Maritime

Gemini Cooperation holds early lead on ocean service reliability: analysts

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The executive order signed Wednesday falls short of providing any details on the proposed port fee plan but directs stricter collection of existing harbor maintenance fees.</div>

The executive order signed Wednesday falls short of providing any details on the proposed port fee plan but directs stricter collection of existing harbor maintenance fees.

<div class="phx-topic">The Trump administration on Wednesday took additional steps toward its plans to grow the US maritime industry with an executive order calling for an increase in domestic defense shipbuilding and attracting more US seafarers. Intermodal shippers will also face new charges for routing cargo through Canada and Mexico ports as Trump targets what he alleges is cargo diversion to avoid such fees.The order, though, did not mention the administration’s proposed port fees on Chinese ships that are also expected to underwrite those efforts. The order signed by President Donald Trump, called a “Maritime Action Plan,” calls for various cabinet officials to undertake efforts to build up domestic shipbuilding capacity and increase the US’ international maritime presence in regions such as the Arctic. The order includes pledges to expand the US Merchant Marine Academy in New York and increase job opportunities for seafarers by growing the US-flag fleet. Those efforts will include the Secretary of Defense reviewing how to increase naval shipbuilding. Trump also wants to develop “Maritime Prosperity Zones” to draw investment to waterfront communities. The proposal is modeled after the “Opportunity Zones” that were included in Trump’s 2017 tax plan offering incentives for investments in distressed communities. The order will also establish a Maritime Security Trust fund that aims to underwrite the various plans. There was no indication how it would be funded, but Trump’s order calls for the Secretary of Homeland Security to strictly enforce collection of the Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF) — the 0.125% charge assessed on seaborne cargo coming through the US — and “other charges on foreign cargo entering the United States to prevent circumvention via Canada or Mexico.” The order also calls for assessing the HMF on any ocean cargo going through Canada and Mexico, plus a 10% service fee for US Customs processing. Trump said in a separate statement that cargo gets diverted through those ports to avoid the HMF. “This will put an end to a longstanding unfair practice, ensuring all cargoes entering the United States are assessed the proper applicable fees and generating additional revenue for investment into the maritime industry,” the White House statement said. While the executive order also directed the US Trade Representative (USTR) to make recommendations on how to combat China’s dominance of the maritime industry, it fell short of adding further details on the proposed fees that would be charged to Chinese-built or -operated ships that enter US ports. The administration appears to be further refining its approach on the controversial fees. USTR Jamieson Greer, appearing before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday, tried to downplay <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-port-fees-could-hit-chinese-ships-under-trump-trade-proposal-5949409">the headline-grabbing fees of up to $1.5 million</a>, saying he’s adjusting the proposal so <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ustrs-china-tonnage-tax-would-squeeze-smaller-trades-stakeholders-5967638">they won’t make US exports uncompetitive</a>. “The USTR’s proposed actions are just those,” Greer said. “They are not all going to be implemented, they are not all going to be stacked. The president will look very carefully to make sure we have the right amount of time and the right incentives to create shipbuilding here without impacting our commodity exports.”Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Trump administration on Wednesday took additional steps toward its plans to grow the US maritime industry with an executive order calling for an increase in domestic defense shipbuilding and attracting more US seafarers. Intermodal shippers will also face new charges for routing cargo through Canada and Mexico ports as Trump targets what he alleges is cargo diversion to avoid such fees. The order, though, did not mention the administration’s proposed port fees on Chinese ships that are also expected to underwrite those efforts. The order signed by President Donald Trump, called a “Maritime Action Plan,” calls for various cabinet officials to undertake efforts to build up domestic shipbuilding capacity and increase the US’ international maritime presence in regions such as the Arctic. The order includes pledges to expand the US Merchant Marine Academy in New York and increase job opportunities for seafarers by growing the US-flag fleet. Those efforts will include the Secretary of Defense reviewing how to increase naval shipbuilding. Trump also wants to develop “Maritime Prosperity Zones” to draw investment to waterfront communities. The proposal is modeled after the “Opportunity Zones” that were included in Trump’s 2017 tax plan offering incentives for investments in distressed communities. The order will also establish a Maritime Security Trust fund that aims to underwrite the various plans. There was no indication how it would be funded, but Trump’s order calls for the Secretary of Homeland Security to strictly enforce collection of the Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF) — the 0.125% charge assessed on seaborne cargo coming through the US — and “other charges on foreign cargo entering the United States to prevent circumvention via Canada or Mexico.” The order also calls for assessing the HMF on any ocean cargo going through Canada and Mexico, plus a 10% service fee for US Customs processing. Trump said in a separate statement that cargo gets diverted through those ports to avoid the HMF. “This will put an end to a longstanding unfair practice, ensuring all cargoes entering the United States are assessed the proper applicable fees and generating additional revenue for investment into the maritime industry,” the White House statement said. While the executive order also directed the US Trade Representative (USTR) to make recommendations on how to combat China’s dominance of the maritime industry, it fell short of adding further details on the proposed fees that would be charged to Chinese-built or -operated ships that enter US ports. The administration appears to be further refining its approach on the controversial fees. USTR Jamieson Greer, appearing before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday, tried to downplay the headline-grabbing fees of up to $1.5 million , saying he’s adjusting the proposal so they won’t make US exports uncompetitive . “The USTR’s proposed actions are just those,” Greer said. “They are not all going to be implemented, they are not all going to be stacked. The president will look very carefully to make sure we have the right amount of time and the right incentives to create shipbuilding here without impacting our commodity exports.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Trump signs order for US shipbuilding, but stays mute on port fees

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar, with forwarders in the trans-Pacific saying US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days.</div>

And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar, with forwarders in the trans-Pacific saying US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days.

<div class="phx-topic">Cargo bookings on vessels leaving Asia bound for the US over the next few weeks have fallen 20% to 30% as retailers delay the receipt of non-critical freight in the aftermath of the widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, sources tell the Journal of Commerce. And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar. Freight forwarders in the trans-Pacific trade say US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days. “It has changed dramatically today. For China cargo, we have had many customers suspend all China shipments,” said Patrick Fay, CEO and co-founder at forwarder BOC International. Fay added most customers are suspending rather than canceling orders, pushing bookings down 30%. Befitting the chaos that has marked the on-again, off-again nature of the tariff rollout, President Donald Trump on Wednesday afternoon announced in a social media post he was lowering the widely varied “reciprocal” tariffs on all countries — except China — to a 10% baseline for 90 days. And in what has become a near-daily escalation of the trade war with Beijing, Trump said he was again raising tariffs on goods imported from China, this time to 125%. Meanwhile, the decline in vessel bookings is reflected in data. According to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet, some 225,900 TEUs of US imports from Asia were booked in the last seven days, down from about 633,000 TEUs booked the week prior. A source at an ocean carrier said he has heard talk of as much as 70% of bookings being canceled this week, but acknowledged that number is probably too high. “I think 20%-30% is a safe number,” the source said, echoing the views of forwarders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce. Rachel Shames, vice president of pricing and procurement at the forwarder CV International, said retailers attempting to plan for what volumes to ship is “the big challenge.” “Deciding on their volume is the big question mark [in the wake of the tariffs],” she said. US retailers on Wednesday, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-retailers-issue-big-downgrade-in-import-forecast-amid-expected-tariff-pullback-5980419">significantly downgraded their projections</a> for imports over the next several months, chalking it up to uncertainty over tariffs. But the carrier source said he expects imports will pick up strongly during the late summer to fall peak shipping season, saying the tariff negotiations between the US and most Asian nations outside of China should produce some clarity for importers by the key peak season. “Once the tariffs settle down, except for China, there should be clarity,” the source said. “Q2 will be bad, but we may see a rebound in Q3.” <h3>Waiting for carrier response </h3>Even with the drop in bookings, ocean carriers have yet to respond with any significant withdrawal of capacity. For the month of April, ocean carriers have plans to cancel 19 sailings to the Southern California ports, according to forwarder Spedag Americas, amounting to a nearly 14% capacity drop during the month. The Pacific Northwest ports will see 10 fewer sailings during April, amounting to a 20% capacity withdrawal. April’s blank sailings, though, come against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand ahead of shippers ramping up bookings for summer and back-to-school merchandise. However, in a sign of slowing or flat demand further ahead, Ocean Network Express said Tuesday it would not resume its previously suspended PN4 service to the Pacific Northwest in May as had been expected. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Cargo bookings on vessels leaving Asia bound for the US over the next few weeks have fallen 20% to 30% as retailers delay the receipt of non-critical freight in the aftermath of the widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, sources tell the Journal of Commerce. And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar. Freight forwarders in the trans-Pacific trade say US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days. “It has changed dramatically today. For China cargo, we have had many customers suspend all China shipments,” said Patrick Fay, CEO and co-founder at forwarder BOC International. Fay added most customers are suspending rather than canceling orders, pushing bookings down 30%. Befitting the chaos that has marked the on-again, off-again nature of the tariff rollout, President Donald Trump on Wednesday afternoon announced in a social media post he was lowering the widely varied “reciprocal” tariffs on all countries — except China — to a 10% baseline for 90 days. And in what has become a near-daily escalation of the trade war with Beijing, Trump said he was again raising tariffs on goods imported from China, this time to 125%. Meanwhile, the decline in vessel bookings is reflected in data. According to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet, some 225,900 TEUs of US imports from Asia were booked in the last seven days, down from about 633,000 TEUs booked the week prior. A source at an ocean carrier said he has heard talk of as much as 70% of bookings being canceled this week, but acknowledged that number is probably too high. “I think 20%-30% is a safe number,” the source said, echoing the views of forwarders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce. Rachel Shames, vice president of pricing and procurement at the forwarder CV International, said retailers attempting to plan for what volumes to ship is “the big challenge.” “Deciding on their volume is the big question mark [in the wake of the tariffs],” she said. US retailers on Wednesday, meanwhile, significantly downgraded their projections for imports over the next several months, chalking it up to uncertainty over tariffs. But the carrier source said he expects imports will pick up strongly during the late summer to fall peak shipping season, saying the tariff negotiations between the US and most Asian nations outside of China should produce some clarity for importers by the key peak season. “Once the tariffs settle down, except for China, there should be clarity,” the source said. “Q2 will be bad, but we may see a rebound in Q3.” Waiting for carrier response Even with the drop in bookings, ocean carriers have yet to respond with any significant withdrawal of capacity. For the month of April, ocean carriers have plans to cancel 19 sailings to the Southern California ports, according to forwarder Spedag Americas, amounting to a nearly 14% capacity drop during the month. The Pacific Northwest ports will see 10 fewer sailings during April, amounting to a 20% capacity withdrawal. April’s blank sailings, though, come against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand ahead of shippers ramping up bookings for summer and back-to-school merchandise. However, in a sign of slowing or flat demand further ahead, Ocean Network Express said Tuesday it would not resume its previously suspended PN4 service to the Pacific Northwest in May as had been expected. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

Forwarding

Tariff uncertainty causes plunge in US cargo bookings at Asia load ports

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The latest Global Port Tracker demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. </div>

The latest Global Port Tracker demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago.

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers on Wednesday significantly downgraded import projections for the second quarter in the aftermath of widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, saying cargo landing at the country’s ports in May and June will be down more than 20% from a forecast made just last month. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), demonstrates <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-us-tariffs-forcing-shippers-to-recalculate-supply-chains-on-the-fly-5976471">the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains</a> since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. “In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the GPT. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.” The new GPT calls for May US imports of 1.66 million TEUs — down 22.4% from March’s forecast and 20.1% lower than actual volumes from May 2024. If the May reductions come to fruition, it would represent the first year-over-year US import drop for any month since September 2023. Retailers are now forecasting imports of 1.57 million TEUs for June, down more than 24% compared with the March GPT. Meanwhile, July import expectations were lowered by 15% to 1.69 million TEUs. Both months are positioned to see import volumes shrink by almost 27% year over year. <h3>Import declines stretch to start of peak season </h3>In its first forecast for August, the GPT projects imports of 1.7 million TEUs for the month, which would be 26.7% lower than actual volumes from 2024. “Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the GPT. “Retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.” Even before the projected slowdown in imports, retail inventory growth has waned in the past year. The ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, edged up in January to 1.32 from 1.3 in December, according to US Census Bureau data. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d87b54a4-01d0-4f80-9faf-0230de37cf46"></dynamic-object></div>April imports are projected at 2.08 million TEUs, almost 3% higher than last year but 2.3% below the forecast made in March. Preliminary March import data from the NRF shows that US ports handled 2.14 million TEUs, up 10.8% from March 2024 and aligning with forecasts made in the last month’s GPT. The updated forecast brings the first-half projection for US imports to 11.73 million TEUs, down 8.2% from expectations made prior to the Trump tariffs announcement and nearly 3% lower than actual first-half 2024 volumes. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US retailers on Wednesday significantly downgraded import projections for the second quarter in the aftermath of widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, saying cargo landing at the country’s ports in May and June will be down more than 20% from a forecast made just last month. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. “In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the GPT. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.” The new GPT calls for May US imports of 1.66 million TEUs — down 22.4% from March’s forecast and 20.1% lower than actual volumes from May 2024. If the May reductions come to fruition, it would represent the first year-over-year US import drop for any month since September 2023. Retailers are now forecasting imports of 1.57 million TEUs for June, down more than 24% compared with the March GPT. Meanwhile, July import expectations were lowered by 15% to 1.69 million TEUs. Both months are positioned to see import volumes shrink by almost 27% year over year. Import declines stretch to start of peak season In its first forecast for August, the GPT projects imports of 1.7 million TEUs for the month, which would be 26.7% lower than actual volumes from 2024. “Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the GPT. “Retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.” Even before the projected slowdown in imports, retail inventory growth has waned in the past year. The ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, edged up in January to 1.32 from 1.3 in December, according to US Census Bureau data. April imports are projected at 2.08 million TEUs, almost 3% higher than last year but 2.3% below the forecast made in March. Preliminary March import data from the NRF shows that US ports handled 2.14 million TEUs, up 10.8% from March 2024 and aligning with forecasts made in the last month’s GPT. The updated forecast brings the first-half projection for US imports to 11.73 million TEUs, down 8.2% from expectations made prior to the Trump tariffs announcement and nearly 3% lower than actual first-half 2024 volumes. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

US retailers issue big downgrade in import forecast amid expected tariff pullback

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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