Journal of Commerce/PIERS Economist Revises 2012 Forecasts Downward
NEWARK, N.J., Dec. 12, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Journal of Commerce/PIERS revised its forecast for containerized imports into the United States in 2012 downward to 2.8 percent year-over-year growth from an earlier forecast of 4.7 percent. Economist Mario O. Moreno says the downward revision was the result of the slow U.S. economic recovery, particularly the poor employment market and persistent depressed figures in the housing market.
Even with recent improvements in the housing market, this industry will remain depressed for a couple of more years as there is simply too much excess capacity to support a recovery, Moreno said. The U.S. economy will continue growing but at a stubbornly slow pace of 1.3% in real terms in 2012.
Moreno, who will present up-to-date forecasts at The Journal of Commerce-hosted Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference March 5-6, 2012 in Long Beach, Calif., noted the U.S. economy showed greater activity during the 3rd quarter than many economists had expected after a sharp slowdown in the first half of the year. But high oil prices, pending foreclosures, a high probability that payroll tax cuts will not be renewed, slow job creation and the seasonality of recent retail spikes will challenge the sustainability of this growth.
Moreno's previous predictions included a 5.9 percent increase for eastbound trans-Pacific trade, which has been downgraded to 2.7 percent. On a quarterly basis, overall imports are forecast to stay flat in Q4:2011 year over year, and rise by just 1.3 percent in Q1:2012.
Auto part demand marked one area of growth, with 2012 predictions for a modest continuation of 2011's remarkable gains, Moreno said, although he cautioned the impact of rising fuel prices might have.
A full analysis of the JOC/PIERS findings is available online at www.joc.com.
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