<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Several regional carriers, typically second- and third-rung players in the industry, have opened new dedicated shuttle services connecting Nhava Sheva and Mundra in India to the Middle East/Persian Gulf corridor. </div>

Several regional carriers, typically second- and third-rung players in the industry, have opened new dedicated shuttle services connecting Nhava Sheva and Mundra in India to the Middle East/Persian Gulf corridor.

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<div>The Middle East crisis is driving a fresh influx of capacity into major Indian ports from smaller, nimble liner operators willing to offer wider Persian Gulf port reach despite the war. That comes as long-haul carriers keep operations in the conflict region either suspended or limited to certain ports deemed safe. Several opportunistic regional carriers, typically second- and third-rung players in the industry, have opened new dedicated shuttle services connecting Nhava Sheva and Mundra in India to the Middle East/Persian Gulf corridor, according to market sources. Gulf Feeder Shipping is one notable name among those rushing into the market. The...

The Middle East crisis is driving a fresh influx of capacity into major Indian ports from smaller, nimble liner operators willing to offer wider Persian Gulf port reach despite the war. That comes as long-haul carriers keep operations in the conflict region either suspended or limited to certain ports deemed safe. Several opportunistic regional carriers, typically second- and third-rung players in the industry, have opened new dedicated shuttle services connecting Nhava Sheva and Mundra in India to the Middle East/Persian Gulf corridor, according to market sources. Gulf Feeder Shipping is one notable name among those rushing into the market. The UAE-based feeder line this week kicked off a new loop with direct calls to Jeddah and King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia, Sokhna in Egypt and Aqaba in Jordan. Gulftainer’s short-haul arm GT Lines is also primed to operate two separate shuttle loops from India’s Nhava Sheva and Mundra to the UAE’s Khor Fakkan in a pendulum fashion, using a fleet of three ships. Emboldened regional carriers see the Middle East crisis as yet another opportunity to reap strong freight earnings, reminiscent of the Red Sea diversions when mainline carriers were entirely avoiding the Suez Canal route due to attacks from Houthi militants while smaller liners nonetheless maintained services in the hostile region. Capacity demand to move rerouted containers Capacity demand on the disrupted Middle East trade lane has been massive in recent weeks as cargo owners look to evacuate Asian containers rerouted to Indian ports. That comes on top of the typical fiscal year-end export rush seen during March in India. Both factors are beginning to choke storage yards, according to market sources. Meanwhile, some mainliners are deploying ad-hoc vessels to clear up stranded boxes and pick up some high-yield export bookings. Cosco Shipping has positioned a vessel for an early-April sailing from three ports of loading in West India for Fujairah (UAE) and Sohar (Oman) connections, joining CMA CGM in that alternative supply chain push. Ocean rates from India to the Middle East have surged since the war, with average Nhava Sheva-Khor Fakkan/Fujairah booking rates now at about $3,500 per FEU. Space for loads to Sohar is even hotter, with carrier pricing hovering at about $4,500 per FEU. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Container lines

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Opportunistic regional lines rush to Middle East corridor amid mainliner pause

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Shippers are no longer clinging to the hope that rate increases were a temporary winter phenomenon due to snowstorms and frigid weather, the company said, noting that a fundamental reset of the market is afoot.</div>

Shippers are no longer clinging to the hope that rate increases were a temporary winter phenomenon due to snowstorms and frigid weather, the company said, noting that a fundamental reset of the market is afoot.

<div class="phx-topic">J.B. Hunt Transport Services has all but declared the freight recession over, saying tightening capacity, higher pricing and heightened demand signal truckload and intermodal are in the early stages of a new upcycle. The largest intermodal provider in North America late Wednesday reported first-quarter revenue of $3.1 billion, up 5% year over year, while operating income jumped 16% to $207 million. “As we moved through the first quarter, the freight environment felt meaningfully different than what we’ve operated in over the past several years,” J.B. Hunt CEO Shelley Simpson said during a conference call after the earnings release. Simpson said regulatory crackdowns involving non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) and English language proficiency regulations have removed significant capacity from the truckload market. J.B. Hunt also pointed to a regulatory crackdown on cabotage — or when truck drivers from Mexico legally deliver cross-border loads, but then illegally haul domestic freight within the US before returning home. “When combined with early signs of improved demand, [it] resulted in a tighter truckload market throughout the quarter,” Simpson said, with all those factors leading to a “shift from a defensive posture to playing offense.” Spencer Frazier, Hunt’s executive vice president of sales and marketing, said shippers are no longer trying to claim that the tightening market was a temporary event due to snowstorms and frigid temperatures over the winter. “Today, most customers understand there has been and continues to be a shift in industry capacity that is impacting the truckload market, and that this is a structural change,” Frazier said on the call, noting that change has allowed J.B. Hunt to no longer chase volume but rather carefully pick and choose which freight to haul. He said it has also led to a change in mindset for shippers. “We’re seeing far less price-led decision-making and far more focus on execution quality,” he said. “They’re consolidating freight with fewer, more reliable providers and prioritizing scale, visibility and execution.” <h3>Need for drivers highest in four years </h3>Brad Delco, Hunt’s CFO, said pricing pressures are likely to persist and outpace broader inflation measures, underscoring the structural nature of the current market shift. “Based on what we’re seeing, the change in price will exceed core inflation,” he said. Delco said the challenge for J.B. Hunt — and the broader industry — is the continued rise in purchased transportation costs, particularly in its power-only truckload and brokerage operations, where Hunt relies on third-party drivers rather than company employees. “Even with what I think are some pretty meaningful increases in rates, a lot of those are being passed to carriers to cover loads,” he said, noting the dynamic has contributed to margin pressure in certain segments. Delco added the industry will need sustained pricing gains to restore profitability and support reinvestment, although the timing of when third-party capacity costs stabilize remains uncertain. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="3797d666-aa07-45fb-852d-7bdc3afc0f74"></dynamic-object></div>Data from DAT Freight &amp; Analytics shows spot market trends beginning to firm, with load-to-truck ratios rising in recent weeks — a key indicator of tightening capacity and increasing pricing power for carriers. Dry-van spot rates have risen sharply over the past month. It has also begun to trickle down to the contract market. The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index, a measure of 120 modally competitive lanes across the US, showed that truckload contract rates, excluding fuel, rose more than 4% year over year in March. By excluding fuel, the comparison shows carriers such as J.B. Hunt are beginning to increase base rates, independent of fuel spikes linked to the war with Iran. And the core supply-and-demand picture shows it could last for a while. “Truckload rates, tender rejections, the ISM [Purchasing Managers’ Index] and several other metrics are all at the highest levels since 2022, while trucking employment is at the lowest levels since 2022,” Frazier said. “In fact, our current driver need is the highest it has been since June of 2022.” Simpson said the freight market is undergoing a longer-term transition, with a gradual recovery likely to be more sustainable. “We’ve seen recoveries happen very quickly. Those tend not to work as well for us over the long term,” she said. “If we recover over the next one to two years, that’s going to be healthier for our business over the next four to five years.” Contact Dan Ronan at <a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com">contactdanronan@gmail.com</a>. </div>

J.B. Hunt Transport Services has all but declared the freight recession over, saying tightening capacity, higher pricing and heightened demand signal truckload and intermodal are in the early stages of a new upcycle. The largest intermodal provider in North America late Wednesday reported first-quarter revenue of $3.1 billion, up 5% year over year, while operating income jumped 16% to $207 million. “As we moved through the first quarter, the freight environment felt meaningfully different than what we’ve operated in over the past several years,” J.B. Hunt CEO Shelley Simpson said during a conference call after the earnings release. Simpson said regulatory crackdowns involving non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) and English language proficiency regulations have removed significant capacity from the truckload market. J.B. Hunt also pointed to a regulatory crackdown on cabotage — or when truck drivers from Mexico legally deliver cross-border loads, but then illegally haul domestic freight within the US before returning home. “When combined with early signs of improved demand, [it] resulted in a tighter truckload market throughout the quarter,” Simpson said, with all those factors leading to a “shift from a defensive posture to playing offense.” Spencer Frazier, Hunt’s executive vice president of sales and marketing, said shippers are no longer trying to claim that the tightening market was a temporary event due to snowstorms and frigid temperatures over the winter. “Today, most customers understand there has been and continues to be a shift in industry capacity that is impacting the truckload market, and that this is a structural change,” Frazier said on the call, noting that change has allowed J.B. Hunt to no longer chase volume but rather carefully pick and choose which freight to haul. He said it has also led to a change in mindset for shippers. “We’re seeing far less price-led decision-making and far more focus on execution quality,” he said. “They’re consolidating freight with fewer, more reliable providers and prioritizing scale, visibility and execution.” Need for drivers highest in four years Brad Delco, Hunt’s CFO, said pricing pressures are likely to persist and outpace broader inflation measures, underscoring the structural nature of the current market shift. “Based on what we’re seeing, the change in price will exceed core inflation,” he said. Delco said the challenge for J.B. Hunt — and the broader industry — is the continued rise in purchased transportation costs, particularly in its power-only truckload and brokerage operations, where Hunt relies on third-party drivers rather than company employees. “Even with what I think are some pretty meaningful increases in rates, a lot of those are being passed to carriers to cover loads,” he said, noting the dynamic has contributed to margin pressure in certain segments. Delco added the industry will need sustained pricing gains to restore profitability and support reinvestment, although the timing of when third-party capacity costs stabilize remains uncertain. Data from DAT Freight & Analytics shows spot market trends beginning to firm, with load-to-truck ratios rising in recent weeks — a key indicator of tightening capacity and increasing pricing power for carriers. Dry-van spot rates have risen sharply over the past month. It has also begun to trickle down to the contract market. The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index, a measure of 120 modally competitive lanes across the US, showed that truckload contract rates, excluding fuel, rose more than 4% year over year in March. By excluding fuel, the comparison shows carriers such as J.B. Hunt are beginning to increase base rates, independent of fuel spikes linked to the war with Iran. And the core supply-and-demand picture shows it could last for a while. “Truckload rates, tender rejections, the ISM [Purchasing Managers’ Index] and several other metrics are all at the highest levels since 2022, while trucking employment is at the lowest levels since 2022,” Frazier said. “In fact, our current driver need is the highest it has been since June of 2022.” Simpson said the freight market is undergoing a longer-term transition, with a gradual recovery likely to be more sustainable. “We’ve seen recoveries happen very quickly. Those tend not to work as well for us over the long term,” she said. “If we recover over the next one to two years, that’s going to be healthier for our business over the next four to five years.” Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Trucking News

Surface

Truckload

Truck brokers

Freight downturn ending as truckload capacity tightens: J.B. Hunt

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The agency said it will begin a non-adjudicatory probe into ocean carrier practices around shipping hazardous and radioactive goods out of the US, with a focus on packaging such shipments. </div>

The agency said it will begin a non-adjudicatory probe into ocean carrier practices around shipping hazardous and radioactive goods out of the US, with a focus on packaging such shipments.

<div class="phx-topic">The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) is probing whether US exporters of hazardous materials and radioactive substances are being discriminated against by ocean carriers. The agency said Wednesday its Bureau of Enforcement, Investigations and Compliance will start a non-adjudicatory investigation into ocean carrier practices “relating to hazardous cargo, including, but not limited to, radioactive cargo” and if those practices “discriminate against United States exporters and service providers.” The FMC said they will seek information from the top 11 ocean carriers serving US trades, along with marine terminal operators, port authorities and forwarders. The agency said it is seeking information about rules and practices regarding the acceptance or non-acceptance of hazardous cargo, including radioactive cargo, from US shippers who are licensed for such exports. The probe will also examine if ocean carriers have “exclusive agreements” for packaging and shipping hazardous materials and if that is a “just and reasonable regulation or practice.” US shippers sent out some 1.2 million TEUs of cargo flagged as hazardous materials in 2025, up 4.6% from the year prior, according to data from PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Shipments flagged as radioactive cargo and isotopes, though, are miniscule, totaling about 93 TEUs last year. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) is probing whether US exporters of hazardous materials and radioactive substances are being discriminated against by ocean carriers. The agency said Wednesday its Bureau of Enforcement, Investigations and Compliance will start a non-adjudicatory investigation into ocean carrier practices “relating to hazardous cargo, including, but not limited to, radioactive cargo” and if those practices “discriminate against United States exporters and service providers.” The FMC said they will seek information from the top 11 ocean carriers serving US trades, along with marine terminal operators, port authorities and forwarders. The agency said it is seeking information about rules and practices regarding the acceptance or non-acceptance of hazardous cargo, including radioactive cargo, from US shippers who are licensed for such exports. The probe will also examine if ocean carriers have “exclusive agreements” for packaging and shipping hazardous materials and if that is a “just and reasonable regulation or practice.” US shippers sent out some 1.2 million TEUs of cargo flagged as hazardous materials in 2025, up 4.6% from the year prior, according to data from PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Shipments flagged as radioactive cargo and isotopes, though, are miniscule, totaling about 93 TEUs last year. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port News

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

FMC to examine how container lines handle hazmat goods, isotopes

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The “K-shaped” US economy has split the outlook for apparel demand, with premium brands performing well while those targeting more cost-conscious consumers struggle. </div>

The “K-shaped” US economy has split the outlook for apparel demand, with premium brands performing well while those targeting more cost-conscious consumers struggle.

<div class="phx-topic">(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) Clothing retailers and brands will likely remain cautious in their ordering this year amid still-rising costs and uneven consumer demand that reflects a “K-shaped” US economy. US apparel and footwear imports fell 7.2% year over year in the first two months of 2026 after a 2.4% decline in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, as the industry worked through inventory corrections. Last year’s decline brought the five-year annual compound growth rate for the sector down to just 0.1%, a figure that underscores a lack of sustained demand growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent earnings calls, executives from across the sector said inventory is largely balanced, but sales remain inconsistent, with higher-income consumers continuing to spend while middle- and lower-income households pull back — what economists call the “K-shaped” economy. As a result, premium brands and retailers are performing relatively well, while some mid-market players targeting cost-conscious consumers are under intense pressure. Deckers Brands, for example, reported continued strength in its UGG and HOKA franchises, selling those shoes at full price. By contrast, Nike said it is still working through inventory challenges in North America, resorting to promotions and other discounts to draw down unsold stock.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="5e628056-1478-4e46-a0c4-8443c45aad01"></dynamic-object></div>“You can’t just sit there and say, ‘Everything’s great,’” Nike CEO Elliott Hill told employees following the company’s earnings call, according to a report from Bloomberg News, emphasizing the need for a more candid assessment of business conditions. A similar dynamic is playing out in the apparel sector. Luxury brand Ralph Lauren reported strong demand for its products sold at full prices. VF Corporation, however, reported weakness in sales of Vans apparel and shoes, requiring more promotions, while children’s clothing designer and retailer Carter’s said it would institute “disciplined cost controls” to combat higher tariff costs and margin compression. <h3>Rising costs, changing sourcing </h3>The prospect of rising costs for raw materials and transportation — due largely to the war in the Middle East — will further erode margins for struggling companies such as VF Corp. and Carter’s. Clothing manufacturers rely on petroleum-based textiles, including polyester, nylon and spandex, and they typically only hold six to eight weeks of inventory, according to the American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA). The <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ocean-carriers-wait-for-clarity-on-safe-hormuz-passage-after-us-iran-ceasefire-6201132">ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz</a>, blocked to virtually all commercial shipping traffic since the war began on Feb. 28, has increased the price of those raw materials, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cost-hit-ocean-carriers-roll-out-series-of-rate-increases-fuel-surcharges-6202474">as well as the cost of bunker fuel</a>. “If this situation in Iran — or the knock-on effects thereof — last six months to a year, then we’re talking about broader supply chain impacts,” AAFA Executive Vice President Nate Herman told the Journal of Commerce. At the same time, higher gasoline prices will act as a brake on consumer spending, particularly among lower-income households forced to prioritize getting to and from work and school over discretionary purchases. Apparel and footwear are essential goods, but consumers can delay buying new items for as long as their existing wardrobe still functions, Herman explained. Lingering uncertainty surrounding US import tariffs and trade policy will also continue to drag on ordering. Last year, significantly higher tariff costs, particularly for Chinese-made goods, prompted many apparel shippers to change their sourcing, as well as order less product, a trend that will likely continue this year given the industry’s deep ties to Asia. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="bef3016d-dd2f-4ed9-9310-f4e88395cce1"></dynamic-object></div>China’s share of US apparel and footwear imports fell to 34.1% in 2025 from 41.7% in 2024, while southeast Asian countries Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Cambodia all gained share, according to PIERS. That shift can also be seen in routing decisions. Inbound clothing shipments to the Port of New York and New Jersey, for example, grew 5% last year, while imports to the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex and Northwest Seaport Alliance slipped 1.7% and 28.9%, respectively. Although the US Supreme Court’s ruling invalidating tariffs the Trump administration imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) puts <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/first-wave-of-ieepa-refunds-to-us-importers-to-start-april-20-cbp-6203623">importers in a position to recoup those duties</a>, the administration is already moving to replace them with similar tariffs that are more likely to withstand legal challenges. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on March 11 <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/potential-new-us-tariffs-cloud-sourcing-strategies-peak-season-demand-6187613">launched two separate Section 301 investigations</a> — one related to “structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors” and a second aimed at forced labor — widely expected to result in new and higher tariffs. Neither investigation is specific to apparel, but the risk of additional tariffs, particularly on goods from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Cambodia, could complicate efforts to diversify sourcing away from China. <h3>Watching USMCA review </h3>Clothing companies are also paying close attention to the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which could influence nearshoring strategies and cross-border freight flows via intermodal, truckload and less-than-truckload. In a March 3 letter to USTR Jamieson Greer, more than 500 business organizations urged the administration to extend USMCA and avoid changes that could disrupt supply chains. “Supply chains are built on trillions in long-term investment, which have been refined over the years to be highly efficient to comply with USMCA’s rigorous framework,” the letter said. “Material changes to USMCA requirements or rules of origin could lead to multi-year supply chain disruptions at significant cost to companies invested in America, raise consumer prices, and erode North American competitiveness.” Separately, the USTR also on March 3 released its annual “Notorious Markets” report, identifying dozens of online and physical markets involved in counterfeiting apparel and footwear brands. The AAFA believes counterfeit goods, particularly through e-commerce platforms, are undercutting legitimate importers. Those concerns intersect with broader cargo security challenges. As recently as March 22, law enforcement recovered more than $7 million in stolen cargo in three raids across Southern California, including apparel and footwear. The incidents highlight ongoing risks tied to organized retail crime, even as legislative efforts such as the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2025 appear to have stalled in Congress. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) Clothing retailers and brands will likely remain cautious in their ordering this year amid still-rising costs and uneven consumer demand that reflects a “K-shaped” US economy. US apparel and footwear imports fell 7.2% year over year in the first two months of 2026 after a 2.4% decline in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, as the industry worked through inventory corrections. Last year’s decline brought the five-year annual compound growth rate for the sector down to just 0.1%, a figure that underscores a lack of sustained demand growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent earnings calls, executives from across the sector said inventory is largely balanced, but sales remain inconsistent, with higher-income consumers continuing to spend while middle- and lower-income households pull back — what economists call the “K-shaped” economy. As a result, premium brands and retailers are performing relatively well, while some mid-market players targeting cost-conscious consumers are under intense pressure. Deckers Brands, for example, reported continued strength in its UGG and HOKA franchises, selling those shoes at full price. By contrast, Nike said it is still working through inventory challenges in North America, resorting to promotions and other discounts to draw down unsold stock. “You can’t just sit there and say, ‘Everything’s great,’” Nike CEO Elliott Hill told employees following the company’s earnings call, according to a report from Bloomberg News, emphasizing the need for a more candid assessment of business conditions. A similar dynamic is playing out in the apparel sector. Luxury brand Ralph Lauren reported strong demand for its products sold at full prices. VF Corporation, however, reported weakness in sales of Vans apparel and shoes, requiring more promotions, while children’s clothing designer and retailer Carter’s said it would institute “disciplined cost controls” to combat higher tariff costs and margin compression. Rising costs, changing sourcing The prospect of rising costs for raw materials and transportation — due largely to the war in the Middle East — will further erode margins for struggling companies such as VF Corp. and Carter’s. Clothing manufacturers rely on petroleum-based textiles, including polyester, nylon and spandex, and they typically only hold six to eight weeks of inventory, according to the American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA). The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz , blocked to virtually all commercial shipping traffic since the war began on Feb. 28, has increased the price of those raw materials, as well as the cost of bunker fuel . “If this situation in Iran — or the knock-on effects thereof — last six months to a year, then we’re talking about broader supply chain impacts,” AAFA Executive Vice President Nate Herman told the Journal of Commerce. At the same time, higher gasoline prices will act as a brake on consumer spending, particularly among lower-income households forced to prioritize getting to and from work and school over discretionary purchases. Apparel and footwear are essential goods, but consumers can delay buying new items for as long as their existing wardrobe still functions, Herman explained. Lingering uncertainty surrounding US import tariffs and trade policy will also continue to drag on ordering. Last year, significantly higher tariff costs, particularly for Chinese-made goods, prompted many apparel shippers to change their sourcing, as well as order less product, a trend that will likely continue this year given the industry’s deep ties to Asia. China’s share of US apparel and footwear imports fell to 34.1% in 2025 from 41.7% in 2024, while southeast Asian countries Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Cambodia all gained share, according to PIERS. That shift can also be seen in routing decisions. Inbound clothing shipments to the Port of New York and New Jersey, for example, grew 5% last year, while imports to the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex and Northwest Seaport Alliance slipped 1.7% and 28.9%, respectively. Although the US Supreme Court’s ruling invalidating tariffs the Trump administration imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) puts importers in a position to recoup those duties , the administration is already moving to replace them with similar tariffs that are more likely to withstand legal challenges. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on March 11 launched two separate Section 301 investigations — one related to “structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors” and a second aimed at forced labor — widely expected to result in new and higher tariffs. Neither investigation is specific to apparel, but the risk of additional tariffs, particularly on goods from Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Cambodia, could complicate efforts to diversify sourcing away from China. Watching USMCA review Clothing companies are also paying close attention to the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which could influence nearshoring strategies and cross-border freight flows via intermodal, truckload and less-than-truckload. In a March 3 letter to USTR Jamieson Greer, more than 500 business organizations urged the administration to extend USMCA and avoid changes that could disrupt supply chains. “Supply chains are built on trillions in long-term investment, which have been refined over the years to be highly efficient to comply with USMCA’s rigorous framework,” the letter said. “Material changes to USMCA requirements or rules of origin could lead to multi-year supply chain disruptions at significant cost to companies invested in America, raise consumer prices, and erode North American competitiveness.” Separately, the USTR also on March 3 released its annual “Notorious Markets” report, identifying dozens of online and physical markets involved in counterfeiting apparel and footwear brands. The AAFA believes counterfeit goods, particularly through e-commerce platforms, are undercutting legitimate importers. Those concerns intersect with broader cargo security challenges. As recently as March 22, law enforcement recovered more than $7 million in stolen cargo in three raids across Southern California, including apparel and footwear. The incidents highlight ongoing risks tied to organized retail crime, even as legislative efforts such as the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2025 appear to have stalled in Congress. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

North American ports

Rising costs, uneven demand crimping US clothing imports

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Transport unions have mobilized members in Ireland, the UK, France, Germany and Italy with the average price of diesel in the EU up 33% since the start of the war in the Middle East.</div>

Transport unions have mobilized members in Ireland, the UK, France, Germany and Italy with the average price of diesel in the EU up 33% since the start of the war in the Middle East.

<div class="phx-topic">Truckers across Europe have been taking to the streets in protest over soaring fuel prices, with the industry squeezed between rising operating costs and war-related inflation that risks dampening consumer demand. Transport unions have mobilized truckers in Ireland, the UK, France, Germany and Italy, with the average price of diesel in the European Union reaching €2.169 ($2.56) per liter, up 33% since the war in the Middle East started, according to the most recent data from the International Road Transport Union (IRU). Paolo Montrone, senior vice president and head of global trades at Kuehne + Nagel, said many of the truckers were small companies that are heavily exposed to rising fuel prices and any weakening demand. “The margins of these truck operators are very thin, so when there is a big spike in cost, clearly the livelihood of many small operators is threatened,” Montrone told the Journal of Commerce. “The capability and the time spent to absorb one of their biggest operating costs is very small.” The IRU warned that the 2026 volume growth forecast now looks unlikely because of the war, saying the road transport sector was now facing “a more fragmented, cost-intensive and uncertain operating environment.” Diesel prices are on the rise amid threatened shortages of fuel. With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded by Iran and the US, some 20% of world’s daily supply of oil has been unable to move from the Persian Gulf region. <h3>Truckers demand relief </h3>With fuel comprising up to 35% of the operating expenses of European road hauliers, transport unions are pushing back against the fast-rising prices. Italian truckers are planning a nationwide strike from April 20 to April 25 in protest over fuel prices that are above €2 per liter, with “limited cost recognition by clients,” according to labor union Trasportiunita, which has called for a shutdown of road transport activities. Ireland’s fuel supply network was plunged into chaos last week when protests by truckers and farmers blocked access to oil supplies and the port of Galway, causing massive traffic jams across the country. While the government has cut fuel taxes, there are fears the simmering protests could resume unless prices start to decline. Truckers and farmers in Northern Ireland held traffic-disrupting slow-moving protests this week amid growing calls for the UK government to cut fuel taxes. Fuel price protests have also been reported in Germany, where haulage association BGL said diesel costs increased 28% in March compared with the previous month, raising operating costs for trucks by about €1,200 ($1,415) per vehicle per month. The German government has agreed to cut the energy tax on diesel and petrol by 17 cents per liter for two months, while designing a relief package for businesses and holding gas stations to only one price increase per day. Industry groups are demanding the government instead apply a “diesel price brake.” The Organization of European Road Transport Operators (OTRE) held a series of protests in France in late March and early April. While the protests have ended for now, OTRE has warned that companies are on the brink of bankruptcy and that the government’s current relief measures are insufficient. France is giving small-to-medium enterprises a 20 cent per liter fuel subsidy for April, part of a €50 million aid package for the road transport sector. <h3>Weakening economic indicators </h3>The fast-rising energy costs are being accompanied by weakening economic indicators across Europe and the UK. The European Central Bank GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised down by 0.3 percentage point to 0.9% and by 0.1 percentage point to 1.4% for 2027 because of the Middle East war. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2026, up from the 2.2% forecast made in December. The International Monetary Fund this week downgraded the UK’s 2026 GDP by half a percentage point, the largest downgrade among the world’s advanced economies. Average diesel prices in the UK are up by more than 30% since late February. Another indicator of economic challenges facing Europe is the eurozone Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) compiled by S&amp;P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said March’s PMI indicated that the eurozone economy has already been hit hard by the war in the Middle East. “The encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have been eradicated thanks to surging energy prices, choked supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed downturn in demand,” Williamson said in a sobering analysis of the March PMI results. “The accompanying surge in prices raises the unwelcome specter of stagflation, or worse, in the near-term,” he added. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Truckers across Europe have been taking to the streets in protest over soaring fuel prices, with the industry squeezed between rising operating costs and war-related inflation that risks dampening consumer demand. Transport unions have mobilized truckers in Ireland, the UK, France, Germany and Italy, with the average price of diesel in the European Union reaching €2.169 ($2.56) per liter, up 33% since the war in the Middle East started, according to the most recent data from the International Road Transport Union (IRU). Paolo Montrone, senior vice president and head of global trades at Kuehne + Nagel, said many of the truckers were small companies that are heavily exposed to rising fuel prices and any weakening demand. “The margins of these truck operators are very thin, so when there is a big spike in cost, clearly the livelihood of many small operators is threatened,” Montrone told the Journal of Commerce. “The capability and the time spent to absorb one of their biggest operating costs is very small.” The IRU warned that the 2026 volume growth forecast now looks unlikely because of the war, saying the road transport sector was now facing “a more fragmented, cost-intensive and uncertain operating environment.” Diesel prices are on the rise amid threatened shortages of fuel. With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded by Iran and the US, some 20% of world’s daily supply of oil has been unable to move from the Persian Gulf region. Truckers demand relief With fuel comprising up to 35% of the operating expenses of European road hauliers, transport unions are pushing back against the fast-rising prices. Italian truckers are planning a nationwide strike from April 20 to April 25 in protest over fuel prices that are above €2 per liter, with “limited cost recognition by clients,” according to labor union Trasportiunita, which has called for a shutdown of road transport activities. Ireland’s fuel supply network was plunged into chaos last week when protests by truckers and farmers blocked access to oil supplies and the port of Galway, causing massive traffic jams across the country. While the government has cut fuel taxes, there are fears the simmering protests could resume unless prices start to decline. Truckers and farmers in Northern Ireland held traffic-disrupting slow-moving protests this week amid growing calls for the UK government to cut fuel taxes. Fuel price protests have also been reported in Germany, where haulage association BGL said diesel costs increased 28% in March compared with the previous month, raising operating costs for trucks by about €1,200 ($1,415) per vehicle per month. The German government has agreed to cut the energy tax on diesel and petrol by 17 cents per liter for two months, while designing a relief package for businesses and holding gas stations to only one price increase per day. Industry groups are demanding the government instead apply a “diesel price brake.” The Organization of European Road Transport Operators (OTRE) held a series of protests in France in late March and early April. While the protests have ended for now, OTRE has warned that companies are on the brink of bankruptcy and that the government’s current relief measures are insufficient. France is giving small-to-medium enterprises a 20 cent per liter fuel subsidy for April, part of a €50 million aid package for the road transport sector. Weakening economic indicators The fast-rising energy costs are being accompanied by weakening economic indicators across Europe and the UK. The European Central Bank GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised down by 0.3 percentage point to 0.9% and by 0.1 percentage point to 1.4% for 2027 because of the Middle East war. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2026, up from the 2.2% forecast made in December. The International Monetary Fund this week downgraded the UK’s 2026 GDP by half a percentage point, the largest downgrade among the world’s advanced economies. Average diesel prices in the UK are up by more than 30% since late February. Another indicator of economic challenges facing Europe is the eurozone Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) compiled by S&P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said March’s PMI indicated that the eurozone economy has already been hit hard by the war in the Middle East. “The encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have been eradicated thanks to surging energy prices, choked supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed downturn in demand,” Williamson said in a sobering analysis of the March PMI results. “The accompanying surge in prices raises the unwelcome specter of stagflation, or worse, in the near-term,” he added. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Surging fuel prices drive protesting European truckers into the streets

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Several leading indexes and data sources show trucking rates rising across modes, including truckload and LTL, driven by fuel costs and tighter capacity. </div>

Several leading indexes and data sources show trucking rates rising across modes, including truckload and LTL, driven by fuel costs and tighter capacity.

<div class="phx-topic">The cost of trucking in the US is rising, no matter who’s doing the math. Data from industry and government indexes such as the Cass Freight Index, the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) all show higher trucking costs gained traction in the first quarter, particularly as fuel costs soared in March. The three-year decline in freight demand may still be with us, but not the accompanying “rate recession.” Price increases are most evident in the truckload spot market but are being felt in contract rates and less-than-truckload (LTL) and intermodal rail rates, too. The pricing data indicates that first-quarter rate hikes were more than a sign of short-term disruption caused by winter storms, signaling that shippers should brace for even higher costs. Shipper-paid truckload spot rates in March reached levels not seen since 2022, according to Journal of Commerce research released last week. Those spot rates rose 17 cents from February to a weighted average of $2.73 per mile on lanes longer than 250 miles. The unweighted national average on lanes greater than 250 miles rose 18 cents between February and March to $2.96 per mile, up 27.2% year over year, according to an analysis of data from Cargo Chief, DAT Freight &amp; Analytics, Loadsmart, and other sources. A 32% war-driven surge in <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/diesel-shock-puts-floor-under-trucking-rates-as-demand-shows-some-life-6192894">retail diesel costs</a> from February to March drove the gains in pricing. The average US retail diesel price jumped by $1.20 to $4.92 per gallon in March from the prior month, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. As of Monday, the US average diesel price at the pump was $5.61 per gallon, up more than $2, or 56.7%, from a year ago, according to the EIA. <h3>Ramped-up rates </h3>Even without the fuel impact, truckload rates are higher than a year ago. The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index, which analyzes 120 modally competitive lanes in the US, shows that truckload contract rates, excluding fuel, were up 4.4% year over year in March. That is consistent with what two shippers, a big box retailer and an automotive shipper told the Journal of Commerce in discussing their recently negotiated truckload rates that were up in the low-to-mid-single digits compared with prior contracts. The shippers, who asked not to be identified, said motor carriers are more aggressive in pushing up rates than in prior cycles. Other industry data supports those claims and the Journal of Commerce analysis. The truckload PPI, released Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose 4.3% year over year to 177.8 in March, its first annualized increase since February 2025. The PPI covers a broad range of “selling” prices, including spot and contract rates paid by shippers, and includes fuel surcharges. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="c3e4f5b0-0670-419f-9a5a-7147f7e87cdf"></dynamic-object></div>Drilling into more specific data, truckload linehaul cost per shipment rose 10.2% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, according to the TD Cowen/AFS index, released Tuesday. The TD Cowen/AFS truckload rate per mile index is expected to reach 10.1% in the second quarter, its highest level in three years, up from 9% in the first quarter. “Broadly speaking, we are seeing upward rate pressure,” said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics, a logistics provider managing $11 billion in freight spend. That pressure “is almost exclusively driven by supply-side dynamics,” Dyer told the Journal of Commerce. “There is no significant uptick in demand and no reason to think current conditions will produce a change in the near future.” The Cass Freight Index, released Monday, showed total shipments declined 4.5% in March from a year ago, but the average shipment cost rose 4.2% during the same period, another sign a supply-side recovery is happening without an underlying economic driver. “Tightness in dry van truckload [TL] conditions is starting to radiate to other markets, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. <h3>Crossing modal lines </h3>That freight or demand shift has already begun to occur, according to intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) and shippers. One non-asset-based IMC told the Journal of Commerce that its volume last month was double that of March 2025. A large Midwest-based shipper who did not want to be identified said it has also seen an increase in tender rejections and decrease in on-time performance from intermodal partners. “All of our intermodal providers tell us that it’s a driver availability issue,” the shipper said. As spot rates soar, more truck drivers that would typically handle intermodal drayage loads are likely to pursue higher-priced freight. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="8afcfdff-15ff-4ec3-8c50-af1aba47062e"></dynamic-object></div>LTL rates remain elevated as well, despite low shipment volumes. The LTL PPI rose 1.8% from February to March and was up 7.2% year over year. AFS Freight’s Dyer attributed the gain in part to fuel surcharges but also to pricing discipline by LTL carriers. “Pricing discipline has become more pervasive and durable than it ever was previously,” Dyer said in an interview. And shippers confronting truckload and parcel price shocks are transferring more freight to LTL carriers, he said. The TD Cowen/AFS LTL rate per pound index is expected to climb to 68.4% in the second quarter, a new high. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The cost of trucking in the US is rising, no matter who’s doing the math. Data from industry and government indexes such as the Cass Freight Index, the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) all show higher trucking costs gained traction in the first quarter, particularly as fuel costs soared in March. The three-year decline in freight demand may still be with us, but not the accompanying “rate recession.” Price increases are most evident in the truckload spot market but are being felt in contract rates and less-than-truckload (LTL) and intermodal rail rates, too. The pricing data indicates that first-quarter rate hikes were more than a sign of short-term disruption caused by winter storms, signaling that shippers should brace for even higher costs. Shipper-paid truckload spot rates in March reached levels not seen since 2022, according to Journal of Commerce research released last week. Those spot rates rose 17 cents from February to a weighted average of $2.73 per mile on lanes longer than 250 miles. The unweighted national average on lanes greater than 250 miles rose 18 cents between February and March to $2.96 per mile, up 27.2% year over year, according to an analysis of data from Cargo Chief, DAT Freight & Analytics, Loadsmart, and other sources. A 32% war-driven surge in retail diesel costs from February to March drove the gains in pricing. The average US retail diesel price jumped by $1.20 to $4.92 per gallon in March from the prior month, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. As of Monday, the US average diesel price at the pump was $5.61 per gallon, up more than $2, or 56.7%, from a year ago, according to the EIA. Ramped-up rates Even without the fuel impact, truckload rates are higher than a year ago. The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index, which analyzes 120 modally competitive lanes in the US, shows that truckload contract rates, excluding fuel, were up 4.4% year over year in March. That is consistent with what two shippers, a big box retailer and an automotive shipper told the Journal of Commerce in discussing their recently negotiated truckload rates that were up in the low-to-mid-single digits compared with prior contracts. The shippers, who asked not to be identified, said motor carriers are more aggressive in pushing up rates than in prior cycles. Other industry data supports those claims and the Journal of Commerce analysis. The truckload PPI, released Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose 4.3% year over year to 177.8 in March, its first annualized increase since February 2025. The PPI covers a broad range of “selling” prices, including spot and contract rates paid by shippers, and includes fuel surcharges. Drilling into more specific data, truckload linehaul cost per shipment rose 10.2% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, according to the TD Cowen/AFS index, released Tuesday. The TD Cowen/AFS truckload rate per mile index is expected to reach 10.1% in the second quarter, its highest level in three years, up from 9% in the first quarter. “Broadly speaking, we are seeing upward rate pressure,” said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics, a logistics provider managing $11 billion in freight spend. That pressure “is almost exclusively driven by supply-side dynamics,” Dyer told the Journal of Commerce. “There is no significant uptick in demand and no reason to think current conditions will produce a change in the near future.” The Cass Freight Index, released Monday, showed total shipments declined 4.5% in March from a year ago, but the average shipment cost rose 4.2% during the same period, another sign a supply-side recovery is happening without an underlying economic driver. “Tightness in dry van truckload [TL] conditions is starting to radiate to other markets, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. Crossing modal lines That freight or demand shift has already begun to occur, according to intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) and shippers. One non-asset-based IMC told the Journal of Commerce that its volume last month was double that of March 2025. A large Midwest-based shipper who did not want to be identified said it has also seen an increase in tender rejections and decrease in on-time performance from intermodal partners. “All of our intermodal providers tell us that it’s a driver availability issue,” the shipper said. As spot rates soar, more truck drivers that would typically handle intermodal drayage loads are likely to pursue higher-priced freight. LTL rates remain elevated as well, despite low shipment volumes. The LTL PPI rose 1.8% from February to March and was up 7.2% year over year. AFS Freight’s Dyer attributed the gain in part to fuel surcharges but also to pricing discipline by LTL carriers. “Pricing discipline has become more pervasive and durable than it ever was previously,” Dyer said in an interview. And shippers confronting truckload and parcel price shocks are transferring more freight to LTL carriers, he said. The TD Cowen/AFS LTL rate per pound index is expected to climb to 68.4% in the second quarter, a new high. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Broad increase in US truck pricing seen gaining steam

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