<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As prospects diminish for a quick exit from the current recession, concerns about inflation and corp</div>

As prospects diminish for a quick exit from the current recession, concerns about inflation and corp

<div>As prospects diminish for a quick exit from the current recession, concerns about inflation and corporate profits are giving way to worries over continued high unemployment. The political pressure on the Federal Reserve to make even deeper cuts in interest rates have begun in earnest, and Congress is talking about tax cuts to stimulate the economy.Those measures may put some people back to work, but they are likely to cause serious side effects to the economy. Some of those side effects could end up hurting the same workers they were intended to help. For example, if there is a tax...

As prospects diminish for a quick exit from the current recession, concerns about inflation and corporate profits are giving way to worries over continued high unemployment. The political pressure on the Federal Reserve to make even deeper cuts in interest rates have begun in earnest, and Congress is talking about tax cuts to stimulate the economy. Those measures may put some people back to work, but they are likely to cause serious side effects to the economy. Some of those side effects could end up hurting the same workers they were intended to help. For example, if there is a tax cut without spending cuts to match, the resulting increase in the federal deficit would add to inflation and raise interest rates, thus slowing down an economic recovery.Rather than look to macroeconomic solutions, policy-makers should look closer to home: to companies and their workers. The real solution to high unemployment lies in changing the incentives facing employers and workers, so that more people can remain in their jobs. Unemployment in this country is largely the result of inflexibility on the part of both labor and mangement. Labor negotiations have become a zero-sum game. When a recession reduces demand for a company's products, the standard response is to cut costs by laying off workers. Both labor and management have come to accept this as the obvious solution. But the same cost savings could be accomplished another way. The alternative method, which has been tried in Japan, is simply to reduce wages for all workers when times are bad, thereby allowing all workers to keep their jobs. This approach makes sense from a social policy standpoint. A high unemployment rate is both socially undesirable and economically unproductive. Unfortunately, though, many labor unions do not see it that way. Many of them would rather see some of their members laid off so that the remaining workers can continue to receive the same wages. A result of unions' preference for an absolute floor on wages is recession, unemployment, and economic hardship. That outcome contrasts sharply with the results obtained in Japan, where a "bonus" compensation system is used to avoid the need for layoffs. The bonus system works as follows: Between 20 percent and 50 percent of the average worker's wage is actually a bonus, which is paid only if the company is doing well. In recessionary times the bonus simply is not paid. In effect, this gives management the option of cutting wages rather than cutting workers. From the management's viewpoint, the reduced wages mean lower operating costs and lower prices for the company's products. That, in turn, slows the national inflation rate - which, in effect, increases the real value of each worker's wages. So even if a worker's wages are nominally reduced, some of that difference is made up in the form of lower prices for goods and services. Labor unions in the U.S. are not the only ones opposing flexibility in wages; corporate executives have consistently avoided setting an example of flexibility in their own wage demands. When times are bad for a company, managers seldom rush to cut their own salaries and perks. It is much easier to lay off lower-ranking workers. When managers cling so visibly to their own privileges, union leaders cannot be expected to push their members to give up part of their paychecks. If, on the other hand, managers were to cut their own salaries by 25 percent, they might find a more receptive ear when they propose to cut workers' wages by 10 percent. A flexible approach to wage levels would yield significant benefits. It would avoid the boom-and-bust cycle of employment, in which companies lay off trained workers during bad times and try to get them back when conditions improve. A policy of full employment even in bad times would foster employee loyalty - which would be an advantage for employers. Such a policy also would help the national economy avoid the reductions in demand that result from high unemployment. A change to a system of wages with downward flexibility can happen only if unions and managers choose cooperation over confrontation in their negotiations. That, admittedly, would be a radical change in the U.S. employment system. But the rewards would be well worth the effort: a loyal and stable labor force, healthier companies and a more resilient national economy.

SHARING GOOD TIMES AND BAD

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Container shipping has become a market where prior patterns of cyclicality must now coexist with non-cyclical forces of external shocks that long-beleaguered carriers have learned to use to their advantage, writes Peter Tirschwell.</div>

Container shipping has become a market where prior patterns of cyclicality must now coexist with non-cyclical forces of external shocks that long-beleaguered carriers have learned to use to their advantage, writes Peter Tirschwell.

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<div class="phx-topic">Earlier this year, the commercial director at a congested Asia port apologized to an ocean carrier for the trouble caused. The response from the ocean carrier? “Don’t worry, it’s OK.” It’s OK? What about delays caused to the carrier’s customers and its reputation with those customers as a reliable service provider? Not important. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5910532_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Indeed, the message from the carrier was actually that the congestion was helpful in removing capacity, handing carriers another external shock that sent rates soaring. In a nutshell, that is the new world of ocean container shipping that shippers and forwarders will be dealing with in 2025 and likely well beyond. It’s a world where prior patterns of cyclicality, while still a factor, must now coexist with non-cyclical forces of external shocks combined with a long-beleaguered set of carriers that learned valuable lessons in assertiveness from the pandemic that they are putting to use. “Carriers have transformed from being weak and ready to be beaten up all the time (pre-2018) to becoming bold and assertive,” said veteran forwarder and carrier executive Sanjay Tejwani, now heading consultant 365 Logistics. “Carriers feel they have been at the receiving end for many years and now it is time to level the playing field between them and their customers.” Chief among the lessons carriers learned, well-reflected in the carrier’s reaction to the congested terminal in Asia, is that disruption is okay. Though external shocks like COVID-19 and the diversions away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal were gifts that fell into carriers’ laps –things they were not responsible for but reaped the benefits from -- they had started down this road well before the pandemic by ramping up blank sailings within alliances, Tejwani said. “Carriers became emboldened by the fact that a few of them controlled a large amount of global capacity and we started to see better capacity management from 2018 onwards,” he said. And as <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/scrapping-slow-steaming-demand-will-limit-capacity-overhang-clerc-5785020">Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told investors Oct. 31</a>, carriers still have other cards to play if the market weakens in 2025, including ramping up blank sailings, scrapping vessels and returning chartered tonnage to owners. His message challenged the theory that overcapacity is looming in 2025. <h3>How sustainable is ‘newly lopsided paradigm’? </h3>All of this amounts to a dramatic, indeed historic, paradigm shift: carriers benefiting, on what increasingly seems like a sustained basis, at the expense of their customers. But that begs the question: How sustainable is this newly lopsided paradigm where carriers benefit from external disruption while flexing their muscles at every opportunity, and customers suffer the consequences? The Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022 (OSRA-22), though limited in scope, showed the ability of shippers to push back via government action. And some carriers are themselves recognizing that things may have gone too far. Could it be that the zero-sum gain within containers, where one party’s gain is the other’s loss with no mutual value creation occurring, is reaching its limits? “Going into 2025, transit times and schedule reliability will become even more important,” Yael D’Angeli, Zim’s global head of strategic accounts, wrote recently on LinkedIn. “It will be taken into account more heavily during the tender process, along with rates and other criteria.” Such is the sorry state of schedule reliability -- which has never really recovered post-COVID, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis -- that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd saw an opportunity to fix the problem via the hub-and-spoke Gemini alliance. This approach flips the script on the status quo, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-faces-13-week-phase-in-before-90-reliability-promise-is-tested-clerc-5783839">with the Gemini pact aiming to consistently deliver 90%-plus schedule reliability</a> by deconstructing lengthy, delay-prone loops into interconnected component services transiting through carrier-controlled hub ports. That level of reliability isn’t just a talking point or press release. If achieved on a sustained basis to the point that it comes to be trusted by shippers, it will rise to the level of shipper value creation by allowing them to take out inventory. “For a supply chain to take out meaningful inventory costs, the reliability of the ocean leg…should be at least 95%, because below 95% the retailers will not trust the supply chain enough to take inventory cost out,” a former Maersk executive told the Journal of Commerce. “Why is that so important? When the client says if I only ship with Maersk I can reduce my global inventory cost by half, it’s a half a billion in savings. So, Maersk says that comes at a cost,” the source added. “Thus, the aim for 95% reliability is not casual or by coincidence. Rather, it links directly to what everyone says they need to deliver to take out buffer stock.” Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com.</a></div>

Earlier this year, the commercial director at a congested Asia port apologized to an ocean carrier for the trouble caused. The response from the ocean carrier? “Don’t worry, it’s OK.” It’s OK? What about delays caused to the carrier’s customers and its reputation with those customers as a reliable service provider? Not important. Indeed, the message from the carrier was actually that the congestion was helpful in removing capacity, handing carriers another external shock that sent rates soaring. In a nutshell, that is the new world of ocean container shipping that shippers and forwarders will be dealing with in 2025 and likely well beyond. It’s a world where prior patterns of cyclicality, while still a factor, must now coexist with non-cyclical forces of external shocks combined with a long-beleaguered set of carriers that learned valuable lessons in assertiveness from the pandemic that they are putting to use. “Carriers have transformed from being weak and ready to be beaten up all the time (pre-2018) to becoming bold and assertive,” said veteran forwarder and carrier executive Sanjay Tejwani, now heading consultant 365 Logistics. “Carriers feel they have been at the receiving end for many years and now it is time to level the playing field between them and their customers.” Chief among the lessons carriers learned, well-reflected in the carrier’s reaction to the congested terminal in Asia, is that disruption is okay. Though external shocks like COVID-19 and the diversions away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal were gifts that fell into carriers’ laps –things they were not responsible for but reaped the benefits from -- they had started down this road well before the pandemic by ramping up blank sailings within alliances, Tejwani said. “Carriers became emboldened by the fact that a few of them controlled a large amount of global capacity and we started to see better capacity management from 2018 onwards,” he said. And as Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told investors Oct. 31 , carriers still have other cards to play if the market weakens in 2025, including ramping up blank sailings, scrapping vessels and returning chartered tonnage to owners. His message challenged the theory that overcapacity is looming in 2025. How sustainable is ‘newly lopsided paradigm’? All of this amounts to a dramatic, indeed historic, paradigm shift: carriers benefiting, on what increasingly seems like a sustained basis, at the expense of their customers. But that begs the question: How sustainable is this newly lopsided paradigm where carriers benefit from external disruption while flexing their muscles at every opportunity, and customers suffer the consequences? The Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022 (OSRA-22), though limited in scope, showed the ability of shippers to push back via government action. And some carriers are themselves recognizing that things may have gone too far. Could it be that the zero-sum gain within containers, where one party’s gain is the other’s loss with no mutual value creation occurring, is reaching its limits? “Going into 2025, transit times and schedule reliability will become even more important,” Yael D’Angeli, Zim’s global head of strategic accounts, wrote recently on LinkedIn. “It will be taken into account more heavily during the tender process, along with rates and other criteria.” Such is the sorry state of schedule reliability -- which has never really recovered post-COVID, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis -- that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd saw an opportunity to fix the problem via the hub-and-spoke Gemini alliance. This approach flips the script on the status quo, with the Gemini pact aiming to consistently deliver 90%-plus schedule reliability by deconstructing lengthy, delay-prone loops into interconnected component services transiting through carrier-controlled hub ports. That level of reliability isn’t just a talking point or press release. If achieved on a sustained basis to the point that it comes to be trusted by shippers, it will rise to the level of shipper value creation by allowing them to take out inventory. “For a supply chain to take out meaningful inventory costs, the reliability of the ocean leg…should be at least 95%, because below 95% the retailers will not trust the supply chain enough to take inventory cost out,” a former Maersk executive told the Journal of Commerce. “Why is that so important? When the client says if I only ship with Maersk I can reduce my global inventory cost by half, it’s a half a billion in savings. So, Maersk says that comes at a cost,” the source added. “Thus, the aim for 95% reliability is not casual or by coincidence. Rather, it links directly to what everyone says they need to deliver to take out buffer stock.” Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com.

Supply chain

Container lines

Maritime

Shippers, forwarders face a new, harsher world in ocean shipping

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The vessels will vary in size between 8,000 TEUs and 15,000 TEUs and are likely meant for deployment on the carrier’s longer-haul intra-Asia and mainline east-west services.</div>

The vessels will vary in size between 8,000 TEUs and 15,000 TEUs and are likely meant for deployment on the carrier’s longer-haul intra-Asia and mainline east-west services.

<div class="phx-topic">Taiwan’s Yang Ming Marine Transport will order up to 13 container ships as part of fleet optimization plans approved by the carrier’s directors Friday to replace aging vessels and expand the fleet of owned ships. The new ships will vary in size between 8,000 TEUs and 15,000 TEUs and are likely meant for deployment on longer-haul intra-Asia and mainline east-west services. The newbuilds are part of Yang Ming’s efforts to “optimize [our] service network and enhance fleet competitiveness,” the carrier said in a statement. The vessels will replace 5,500- and 6,500-TEU ships that are more than 20 years old, the carrier said. Yang Ming currently operates six of that class that are 20 years and older, with a further five ships that will reach that milestone when the new vessels are likely delivered. Yang Ming said it will evaluate energy-saving technologies and study clean energy fuel options for likely use in the new ships before orders are placed with shipyards. The ships will allow the carrier to “provide customers worldwide with more environmentally friendly transportation solutions,” it said. The carrier gave no details of the cost or likely delivery dates of the new ships. But the fleet renewal plan comes as Yang Ming is expecting an increase both in the number of services and frequency of sailings once its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/north-america-trade-to-dominate-premier-alliances-network-launch-in-february-5877233">Premier Alliance partnership is launched with Ocean Network Express (ONE) and HMM in February</a>. Yang Ming said the number of services will increase by three to 28 with new loops from Asia to Europe, Mediterranean and Pacific Southwest, while the frequency will also increase on those trades. The carrier has also announced a raft of new services in the last few weeks. These include an India Ocean Express (ISE) service announced Friday connecting western India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan to North Europe. It will be operated in partnership with HMM and inaugurated on Feb. 5. Yang Ming said last week it would begin a China-Thailand Express (CTE) service with OOCL from early January to strengthen their competitiveness in the intra-Asia market. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com.</a></div>

Taiwan’s Yang Ming Marine Transport will order up to 13 container ships as part of fleet optimization plans approved by the carrier’s directors Friday to replace aging vessels and expand the fleet of owned ships. The new ships will vary in size between 8,000 TEUs and 15,000 TEUs and are likely meant for deployment on longer-haul intra-Asia and mainline east-west services. The newbuilds are part of Yang Ming’s efforts to “optimize [our] service network and enhance fleet competitiveness,” the carrier said in a statement. The vessels will replace 5,500- and 6,500-TEU ships that are more than 20 years old, the carrier said. Yang Ming currently operates six of that class that are 20 years and older, with a further five ships that will reach that milestone when the new vessels are likely delivered. Yang Ming said it will evaluate energy-saving technologies and study clean energy fuel options for likely use in the new ships before orders are placed with shipyards. The ships will allow the carrier to “provide customers worldwide with more environmentally friendly transportation solutions,” it said. The carrier gave no details of the cost or likely delivery dates of the new ships. But the fleet renewal plan comes as Yang Ming is expecting an increase both in the number of services and frequency of sailings once its Premier Alliance partnership is launched with Ocean Network Express (ONE) and HMM in February . Yang Ming said the number of services will increase by three to 28 with new loops from Asia to Europe, Mediterranean and Pacific Southwest, while the frequency will also increase on those trades. The carrier has also announced a raft of new services in the last few weeks. These include an India Ocean Express (ISE) service announced Friday connecting western India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan to North Europe. It will be operated in partnership with HMM and inaugurated on Feb. 5. Yang Ming said last week it would begin a China-Thailand Express (CTE) service with OOCL from early January to strengthen their competitiveness in the intra-Asia market. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com.

Container Shipping News

Yang Ming to order slate of new container ships in move to upgrade fleet

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Bills introduced in the House and Senate seek to expand the US-flag international fleet from the current level of about 80 ships to 250 in 10 years and would require all government cargoes to be carried on US-flag vessels. </div>

Bills introduced in the House and Senate seek to expand the US-flag international fleet from the current level of about 80 ships to 250 in 10 years and would require all government cargoes to be carried on US-flag vessels.

<div class="phx-topic">Bipartisan legislation in Congress seeking to supercharge the expansion of the US-flag commercial shipping fleet in the name of national security would require US-owned, built and crewed vessels to carry up to 10% of Chinese imports landing in the country. Two bills, introduced in both the House and Senate Thursday amid rising tensions with China, want to expand a US-flag international fleet that’s been shrinking since the heyday of the 1950s. If passed, the bills would require US-flag vessels to ultimately handle up to 10% of US imports from China, with the share rising one percentage point annually over a decade. “For far too long, the United States neglected our maritime industries and the critical role they play in our national and economic security — this ends with the SHIPS for America Act,” said one of the co-authors of the House bill, Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., adding in a statement it was the “most substantial and comprehensive” effort to date to boost the US-flag commercial fleet. The legislation would make it a goal to expand the US-flag international fleet from the current level of about 80 ships to 250 in 10 years and require all government cargoes to be carried on US-flag vessels rather than just the loosely enforced 50% share. Comparatively, China has more than 5,500 vessels flagged, according to Garamendi’s statement. Rep. Trent Kelly, R-Miss., was another co-author in the House, with Senators Todd Young, R-Indiana, and Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., authoring the Senate’s bill. The legislation comes after repeated Congressional attempts to expand the US-flag fleet and ensure federal agencies utilized the ships. But few such bills moved out of committee due to a lack of urgency and knowing appropriators would have to agree to sustained funding. That both chambers introduced comprehensive legislation from members of both parties suggests the political mood is changing. Support for expanding US shipbuilding capabilities is “getting a lot of support from Congress,” Ryan Libhart Pereyda, principal and CEO of Patriot Maritime, a California-based federal contractor that owns and operates US-flag ships, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-flag-vessel-owners-investors-tout-wave-of-support-for-expanding-fleet-5819921">said at an investor event</a> in mid-November. “We’re getting a ton of support from the military — stuff we haven’t seen in a very long time,” he said. “It’s generational.” APL, part of CMA CGM Group, and Maersk Ltd., part of A.P. Moeller-Maersk, handle US-government cargoes moving internationally. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Bipartisan legislation in Congress seeking to supercharge the expansion of the US-flag commercial shipping fleet in the name of national security would require US-owned, built and crewed vessels to carry up to 10% of Chinese imports landing in the country. Two bills, introduced in both the House and Senate Thursday amid rising tensions with China, want to expand a US-flag international fleet that’s been shrinking since the heyday of the 1950s. If passed, the bills would require US-flag vessels to ultimately handle up to 10% of US imports from China, with the share rising one percentage point annually over a decade. “For far too long, the United States neglected our maritime industries and the critical role they play in our national and economic security — this ends with the SHIPS for America Act,” said one of the co-authors of the House bill, Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., adding in a statement it was the “most substantial and comprehensive” effort to date to boost the US-flag commercial fleet. The legislation would make it a goal to expand the US-flag international fleet from the current level of about 80 ships to 250 in 10 years and require all government cargoes to be carried on US-flag vessels rather than just the loosely enforced 50% share. Comparatively, China has more than 5,500 vessels flagged, according to Garamendi’s statement. Rep. Trent Kelly, R-Miss., was another co-author in the House, with Senators Todd Young, R-Indiana, and Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., authoring the Senate’s bill. The legislation comes after repeated Congressional attempts to expand the US-flag fleet and ensure federal agencies utilized the ships. But few such bills moved out of committee due to a lack of urgency and knowing appropriators would have to agree to sustained funding. That both chambers introduced comprehensive legislation from members of both parties suggests the political mood is changing. Support for expanding US shipbuilding capabilities is “getting a lot of support from Congress,” Ryan Libhart Pereyda, principal and CEO of Patriot Maritime, a California-based federal contractor that owns and operates US-flag ships, said at an investor event in mid-November. “We’re getting a ton of support from the military — stuff we haven’t seen in a very long time,” he said. “It’s generational.” APL, part of CMA CGM Group, and Maersk Ltd., part of A.P. Moeller-Maersk, handle US-government cargoes moving internationally. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Trans-Pacific

Legislation aims to mandate rising share of China imports on expanded US-flag fleet

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Disentangling FedEx’s LTL and parcel units will take time, but it will rearrange the less-than-truckload market — and most likely raise LTL shipping costs.</div>

Disentangling FedEx’s LTL and parcel units will take time, but it will rearrange the less-than-truckload market — and most likely raise LTL shipping costs.

<div class="phx-topic">The US less-than-truckload (LTL) market is about to undergo another convulsion, this time caused not by a bankruptcy or merger but the emergence of a “new” LTL provider. The creation of a standalone FedEx Freight will upend a strategic LTL puzzle that competing carriers have been vying to complete since the demise of Yellow in 2023. Among the likely results are increased consolidation across the LTL landscape, an accelerated drive toward dimensional pricing and higher LTL shipping costs. With $10.2 billion in revenue in 2023, FedEx Freight is already the largest LTL provider in North America by far. The <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fedex-to-spin-off-industry-leading-fedex-freight-ltl-division-5909135">spinoff by FedEx</a>, announced Thursday, will make it even bigger. The new FedEx Freight will be an independent, public company. As a division of FedEx, it has increased operating profit on average 25% each year for the past five years. The standalone carrier could have a market cap as high as $40 billion to $50 billion on Wall Street, various sources estimate. Its next-largest competitor, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has a market cap of $38 billion with about $6 billion in annual revenue. Shippers will benefit from service improvements and pricing innovation, according to Satish Jindel, president of SJ Consulting Group. But he expects a harder push for “price correction” from an independent FedEx Freight. That means shippers who are “underpaying” — perhaps because of the bundling of LTL and parcel services or incorrect classification of freight — will have to pony up and pay more. The spinoff is the latest development reshaping LTL networks while helping to broaden the LTL sector’s role in supply chains from ports to last-mile delivery. LTL carriers are adding more <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/estes-express-plans-near-port-expansion-as-new-generation-takes-charge-5220656">port transloading business</a> to their portfolios, but also are broadening their retail, warehousing and specialized services. As shippers work to shorten distances between distribution centers, suppliers and end-customers, LTL carriers see more opportunity to expand beyond their industrial base. Carriers and shippers will have time to adjust to Thursday’s news. Unraveling FedEx Freight from parcel carriers FedEx Express and FedEx Ground will take until mid-2026. And FedEx plans to continue to invest in its LTL arm over the next 18 months, Raj Subramaniam, FedEx president and CEO, told Wall Street analysts Thursday. The spinoff news came as FedEx released its earnings for the fiscal quarter that ended Nov. 30. “We expect to add more than 300 LTL [sales] specialists by the time of separation,” Subramaniam said. Also on his list are an enhanced, LTL-specific pricing and invoicing system and LTL-focused automation that will improve operational efficiency and reduce costs. “We’re excited to create a leading LTL pure-play, the largest carrier by revenue with the broadest network and the fastest transit times,” Subramaniam said. At the same time, “it’s very important to note that FedEx Freight benefits a lot from the association with FedEx,” he added. <h3>Ties that bind </h3>The new “pure-play” carrier won’t cut all ties to its former parent, Subramaniam said. For one, it will still be known as FedEx Freight and remain connected through technology. And FedEx Freight will continue to support its package delivery sister divisions, providing linehaul runs, peak season service and drayage hauls to the parcel operation. “This requires minimal change as [FedEx] Freight already receives a direct financial benefit from supporting Federal Express via intercompany agreements,” the CEO told analysts. Lance Moll will continue as CEO of FedEx Freight through the separation process, the company said. FedEx veteran Thomas Connolly will be vice president of LTL sales. “Business continuity” for customers is the goal, Subramaniam said. “[But] no one knows the specifics about how FedEx Freight’s network is impacted by the requirements of FedEx,” shipper consultant Mike Regan told the Journal of Commerce. “I think no one understands how intertwined FedEx Freight is in supporting the operations of FedEx,” said Regan, who is chief relationship officer of TranzAct Technologies. The majority of FedEx Freight volume is negotiated through independent contracts, Brie Carere, FedEx’s chief customer officer, said during Thursday’s call. Most small shippers access FedEx Freight through bundling with parcel services, however. <h3>A new order </h3>The spinoff will force FedEx’s LTL competitors to respond, likely by hastening consolidation within the LTL market in 2025 and 2026. That consolidation is already under way, as the largest LTL providers rush to acquire terminals and build out freight networks. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/transportation-ma-activity-seen-ready-to-rebound-as-value-of-deals-rises-5905255">Mergers and acquisitions</a>, large and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/smaller-us-ltl-carriers-increasingly-merging-in-sink-or-swim-market-5783875">small</a>, are driving a new wave of consolidation. The 10 largest US LTL providers have been pursuing a land rush since late 2023, following the Yellow bankruptcy. Estes Express Lines, the fourth-largest LTL provider, recently <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-terminal-sales-by-yellow-raising-stakes-for-us-ltl-carriers-5903607">acquired 11 terminals with 1,310 doors</a> from Yellow. The wave of terminal acquisitions helps carriers build denser freight networks but also positions them to compete against an independent and bigger FedEx Freight. The addition of LTL doors is considered a “long-term” investment in capacity, as doors once purchased may be opened or closed as demand rises and falls. When FedEx Freight finally stands on its own, it will still be at the top of the Journal of Commerce / SJ Consulting Group rankings of largest LTL trucking companies. But there may be changes in the rankings below. The 10 largest carriers in 2023 controlled 62% of total LTL revenue of $62.2 billion. As FedEx Freight and its competitors battle for more revenue, that share is expected to grow. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The US less-than-truckload (LTL) market is about to undergo another convulsion, this time caused not by a bankruptcy or merger but the emergence of a “new” LTL provider. The creation of a standalone FedEx Freight will upend a strategic LTL puzzle that competing carriers have been vying to complete since the demise of Yellow in 2023. Among the likely results are increased consolidation across the LTL landscape, an accelerated drive toward dimensional pricing and higher LTL shipping costs. With $10.2 billion in revenue in 2023, FedEx Freight is already the largest LTL provider in North America by far. The spinoff by FedEx , announced Thursday, will make it even bigger. The new FedEx Freight will be an independent, public company. As a division of FedEx, it has increased operating profit on average 25% each year for the past five years. The standalone carrier could have a market cap as high as $40 billion to $50 billion on Wall Street, various sources estimate. Its next-largest competitor, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has a market cap of $38 billion with about $6 billion in annual revenue. Shippers will benefit from service improvements and pricing innovation, according to Satish Jindel, president of SJ Consulting Group. But he expects a harder push for “price correction” from an independent FedEx Freight. That means shippers who are “underpaying” — perhaps because of the bundling of LTL and parcel services or incorrect classification of freight — will have to pony up and pay more. The spinoff is the latest development reshaping LTL networks while helping to broaden the LTL sector’s role in supply chains from ports to last-mile delivery. LTL carriers are adding more port transloading business to their portfolios, but also are broadening their retail, warehousing and specialized services. As shippers work to shorten distances between distribution centers, suppliers and end-customers, LTL carriers see more opportunity to expand beyond their industrial base. Carriers and shippers will have time to adjust to Thursday’s news. Unraveling FedEx Freight from parcel carriers FedEx Express and FedEx Ground will take until mid-2026. And FedEx plans to continue to invest in its LTL arm over the next 18 months, Raj Subramaniam, FedEx president and CEO, told Wall Street analysts Thursday. The spinoff news came as FedEx released its earnings for the fiscal quarter that ended Nov. 30. “We expect to add more than 300 LTL [sales] specialists by the time of separation,” Subramaniam said. Also on his list are an enhanced, LTL-specific pricing and invoicing system and LTL-focused automation that will improve operational efficiency and reduce costs. “We’re excited to create a leading LTL pure-play, the largest carrier by revenue with the broadest network and the fastest transit times,” Subramaniam said. At the same time, “it’s very important to note that FedEx Freight benefits a lot from the association with FedEx,” he added. Ties that bind The new “pure-play” carrier won’t cut all ties to its former parent, Subramaniam said. For one, it will still be known as FedEx Freight and remain connected through technology. And FedEx Freight will continue to support its package delivery sister divisions, providing linehaul runs, peak season service and drayage hauls to the parcel operation. “This requires minimal change as [FedEx] Freight already receives a direct financial benefit from supporting Federal Express via intercompany agreements,” the CEO told analysts. Lance Moll will continue as CEO of FedEx Freight through the separation process, the company said. FedEx veteran Thomas Connolly will be vice president of LTL sales. “Business continuity” for customers is the goal, Subramaniam said. “[But] no one knows the specifics about how FedEx Freight’s network is impacted by the requirements of FedEx,” shipper consultant Mike Regan told the Journal of Commerce. “I think no one understands how intertwined FedEx Freight is in supporting the operations of FedEx,” said Regan, who is chief relationship officer of TranzAct Technologies. The majority of FedEx Freight volume is negotiated through independent contracts, Brie Carere, FedEx’s chief customer officer, said during Thursday’s call. Most small shippers access FedEx Freight through bundling with parcel services, however. A new order The spinoff will force FedEx’s LTL competitors to respond, likely by hastening consolidation within the LTL market in 2025 and 2026. That consolidation is already under way, as the largest LTL providers rush to acquire terminals and build out freight networks. Mergers and acquisitions , large and small , are driving a new wave of consolidation. The 10 largest US LTL providers have been pursuing a land rush since late 2023, following the Yellow bankruptcy. Estes Express Lines, the fourth-largest LTL provider, recently acquired 11 terminals with 1,310 doors from Yellow. The wave of terminal acquisitions helps carriers build denser freight networks but also positions them to compete against an independent and bigger FedEx Freight. The addition of LTL doors is considered a “long-term” investment in capacity, as doors once purchased may be opened or closed as demand rises and falls. When FedEx Freight finally stands on its own, it will still be at the top of the Journal of Commerce / SJ Consulting Group rankings of largest LTL trucking companies. But there may be changes in the rankings below. The 10 largest carriers in 2023 controlled 62% of total LTL revenue of $62.2 billion. As FedEx Freight and its competitors battle for more revenue, that share is expected to grow. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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FedEx Freight spinoff is latest move to reshape US LTL market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Imports are likely to remain robust into January as shippers attempt to beat new tariffs expected to be imposed by the incoming Trump administration while also navigating an early Lunar New Year that begins Jan. 29.</div>

Imports are likely to remain robust into January as shippers attempt to beat new tariffs expected to be imposed by the incoming Trump administration while also navigating an early Lunar New Year that begins Jan. 29.

<div class="phx-topic">Average dwell times for import containers leaving marine terminals in Southern California by rail have fallen markedly in recent weeks, although that improvement could be challenged by an expected surge in imports in the coming weeks. Terminal managers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach say dwell times averaged about 4.5 days this week. “We’re operating as we should be,” said Anthony Otto, president of the automated Long Beach Container Terminal. “Our dwell is now 2.5 days.” The container backlog at Yusen Terminals in Los Angeles began to dissipate in mid-November and is not an issue today, according to terminal management. “The bottom line is we’re cleared up,” Yusen President Alan McCorkle told the Journal of Commerce. The improvement in rail dwells began in November, with average dwells for the month falling to 7.67 days from the 9.86 days seen in October, a two-year high, according to data from the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association (PMSA). Still, November’s figure is essentially double the rail dwell of 3.9 days for the same month last year. “Cargo today is flowing well. I think a four- to six-day dwell is likely soon,” Michele Grubbs, PMSA’s vice president, said. “The railroads are really working to get those numbers down.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="155dedc1-99f2-4adf-a449-1c9ab2510f95"></dynamic-object></div><h3>Import bump coming </h3>Further improving the dwell number will not be easy. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach expect to handle a combined 272,354 TEUs in imports next week, up from the 200,000 to 210,000 TEUs they have averaged in recent weeks. And imports are likely to remain robust into January as shippers attempt to beat <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-year-heralds-triple-threat-to-us-container-shipping-5908327">new tariffs expected to be imposed by the incoming Trump administration while also navigating an early Lunar New Year that begins Jan. 29.</a> That makes some forwarders uneasy about where rail dwells could be headed, particularly those who aren’t personally experiencing the gains that have been documented. “What we’re seeing is closer to a seven- to nine-day dwell,” said one forwarder who did not want to be identified. Rail container dwell times in Southern California can vary considerably from terminal to terminal. Terminal operators say they can manage their rail container volumes if inland point intermodal (IPI) containers are about 20% to 30% of their total cargo mix. If that mix varies widely, so too can the rail dwell times at individual terminals. Especially important factors that must be considered are the size and configuration of a terminal’s on-dock railyard, said Dan Smith, a partner in the consulting firm Tioga Group. Smith said on-dock rail yards that were added to older terminals oftentimes are more difficult for the terminal operator to manage than new terminals with the on-dock railyard included in the original design “If it was not developed with a purpose-built on-dock railyard, [the terminal] is inevitably less efficient,” Smith said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Average dwell times for import containers leaving marine terminals in Southern California by rail have fallen markedly in recent weeks, although that improvement could be challenged by an expected surge in imports in the coming weeks. Terminal managers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach say dwell times averaged about 4.5 days this week. “We’re operating as we should be,” said Anthony Otto, president of the automated Long Beach Container Terminal. “Our dwell is now 2.5 days.” The container backlog at Yusen Terminals in Los Angeles began to dissipate in mid-November and is not an issue today, according to terminal management. “The bottom line is we’re cleared up,” Yusen President Alan McCorkle told the Journal of Commerce. The improvement in rail dwells began in November, with average dwells for the month falling to 7.67 days from the 9.86 days seen in October, a two-year high, according to data from the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association (PMSA). Still, November’s figure is essentially double the rail dwell of 3.9 days for the same month last year. “Cargo today is flowing well. I think a four- to six-day dwell is likely soon,” Michele Grubbs, PMSA’s vice president, said. “The railroads are really working to get those numbers down.” Import bump coming Further improving the dwell number will not be easy. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach expect to handle a combined 272,354 TEUs in imports next week, up from the 200,000 to 210,000 TEUs they have averaged in recent weeks. And imports are likely to remain robust into January as shippers attempt to beat new tariffs expected to be imposed by the incoming Trump administration while also navigating an early Lunar New Year that begins Jan. 29. That makes some forwarders uneasy about where rail dwells could be headed, particularly those who aren’t personally experiencing the gains that have been documented. “What we’re seeing is closer to a seven- to nine-day dwell,” said one forwarder who did not want to be identified. Rail container dwell times in Southern California can vary considerably from terminal to terminal. Terminal operators say they can manage their rail container volumes if inland point intermodal (IPI) containers are about 20% to 30% of their total cargo mix. If that mix varies widely, so too can the rail dwell times at individual terminals. Especially important factors that must be considered are the size and configuration of a terminal’s on-dock railyard, said Dan Smith, a partner in the consulting firm Tioga Group. Smith said on-dock rail yards that were added to older terminals oftentimes are more difficult for the terminal operator to manage than new terminals with the on-dock railyard included in the original design “If it was not developed with a purpose-built on-dock railyard, [the terminal] is inevitably less efficient,” Smith said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

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LA-LB rail dwells show improvement, but import bump could reverse gains

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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