<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Freight forwarders warned that shippers could face weeks of delays due to back-to-back typhoons that have battered China, while blank sailings are rising ahead of the Golden Week holiday.</div>

Freight forwarders warned that shippers could face weeks of delays due to back-to-back typhoons that have battered China, while blank sailings are rising ahead of the Golden Week holiday.

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<div>Shippers face more disruption and vessel delays as Chinese authorities closed the ports of Qingdao and Dalian Thursday ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Muifa, which has steadily moved north along China’s east coast after battering Shanghai and Ningbo Wednesday. “Qingdao Qianwan United Container Terminal announced it was stopping container pick-up service from Thursday afternoon local time until further notice due to Typhoon Muifa,” Thomas Gronen, head of the Greater China business unit at Dubai-headquartered FIBS Logistics, told JOC.com. Maersk confirmed both Qingdao and Dalian ports had shut, with inbound pilot services suspended and vessels ordered to leave port to...

Shippers face more disruption and vessel delays as Chinese authorities closed the ports of Qingdao and Dalian Thursday ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Muifa, which has steadily moved north along China’s east coast after battering Shanghai and Ningbo Wednesday. “Qingdao Qianwan United Container Terminal announced it was stopping container pick-up service from Thursday afternoon local time until further notice due to Typhoon Muifa,” Thomas Gronen, head of the Greater China business unit at Dubai-headquartered FIBS Logistics, told JOC.com. Maersk confirmed both Qingdao and Dalian ports had shut, with inbound pilot services suspended and vessels ordered to leave port to ride out the storm. “Qingdao and Dalian ports may open Friday or later depending on the impact of Typhoon Muifa,” a Maersk China spokesperson told JOC.com Thursday. The closure of the two northeast ports coincided with the reopening of Shanghai and Ningbo Thursday after both ports closed the day before due to the storm. Ningbo terminals restarted port operations at midday, while the Shanghai terminals resumed full regular operations in the evening, Gronen said. Muifa has already led to vessel delays, with THE Alliance postponing to the weekend the departure of vessels operating Asia-Europe services from Shanghai and Ningbo. “We’ve got confirmation from THE Alliance that the FE4 service from Shanghai will be delayed to Sept. 17 and the FE2 service from Ningbo to Sept. 18,” Gronen said, adding liner delays need to be checked on a service-by-service basis. Heavy rain from the storm caused flooding in Ningbo, disrupting road transport in the area; no major incidents were reported in Shanghai. Freight forwarders warned that shippers could face weeks of delays due to back-to-back typhoons Muifa and Hinnamnor, which struck Shanghai and Ningbo last week. Additionally, carriers are blanking sailings ahead of China’s week-long National Day holiday from Oct 1. “Muifa has disrupted port and cargo operations at four of China's busiest container terminals so it’s inevitable there will be vessel, road transport, and cargo delays across a huge swathe of eastern China,” the head of one Hong Kong-based freight forwarder told JOC.com. Maersk added to a raft of holiday-related blanked sailings Thursday with confirmation it was blanking the AE12 service departure from Ningbo that was scheduled for Sept. 24. Contact Special Correspondent Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

International ports

Typhoon closes Qingdao and Dalian ports, adding to shipper woes

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A full evaluation of on-time performance will not be possible until July once the transition to the new deep-sea services has been completed, but data for February and March is positive for the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd alliance.</div>

A full evaluation of on-time performance will not be possible until July once the transition to the new deep-sea services has been completed, but data for February and March is positive for the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd alliance.

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<div class="phx-topic">The Gemini Cooperation of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd is delivering on its public promise of high reliability since launching Feb. 1, eclipsing the on-time performance of rival alliances and standalone Mediterranean Shipping Co., analysts say. While ocean visibility provider eeSea and Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis both emphasised that a full evaluation of schedule reliability will not be possible until July once a full rotation of deep-sea services has been completed, the data for February and March has Gemini firmly in front. ”While both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have been cautioning that it will take several months before the network is fully in place, they’re off to a good start at 86% for Q1,” eeSea CEO Simon Sundboell said in a market update this week. “You would expect as much, though, as the network starts off with a blank slate, and all vessel positions at zero as they start out on their respective new services,” he added. The field for second-best is crowded, according to eeSea data. Premier Alliance, renamed from THE Alliance after Hapag-Lloyd’s departure and launched in February, recorded on-time performance in the first quarter of 31%, while Ocean Alliance, the only unchanged carrier grouping, was at 25%. MSC, which left the 2M Alliance to operate as a standalone carrier in February, recorded on-time performance of 22%. Non-alliance services are at 30% schedule reliability on east-west services, including the Middle East trades, according to eeSea. Gemini’s network is structured around a hub-and-spoke approach compared to the direct port-to-port services that MSC and the other alliances offer. When fully rolled out, there will be 28 shuttle services operating under the Gemini model, a factor that has raised concerns among shippers that have a historic dislike of transhipment. But the initial data is encouraging. <h3>Almost all shuttle services hitting 100% </h3>Sea-Intelligence analyzed the performance of the 15 Gemini shuttle services that had arrivals for February, with 10 deployed in Asia, two in Europe and three in the Indian subcontinent/Middle East. The overall schedule reliability for the services was 98.4% in February and all except two services in Asia had 100% schedule reliability. “While we do not yet have a complete rollout of shuttle services, we do have a substantial number of vessel arrivals covered, which is why we can say that these scores are somewhat representative of the general schedule reliability performance of the Gemini shuttle services,” Sea-Intelligence noted in its latest Sunday Spotlight newsletter. That the Gemini services were performing with such high reliability was not unexpected, according to Lars Mikael Jensen, head of hubs at Maersk-owned APM Terminals. “This is not something that we worked out around the coffee machine on a Friday afternoon,” Jensen told customers during a recent briefing on the new services. “This has been ongoing work for five years and in the prototypes, we could see that this would work.” Jensen said fewer port calls meant fewer delays, with the hubs in Gemini’s modular network serving as junction points and the shuttles providing the spokes to destination ports. “Essentially, the shuttles are ferries that go back and forth between hubs and destinations and by covering those ports we don't call direct anymore with the shuttles, we can isolate any problems when they appear and not impact the rest of the service,” he said. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Gemini Cooperation of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd is delivering on its public promise of high reliability since launching Feb. 1, eclipsing the on-time performance of rival alliances and standalone Mediterranean Shipping Co., analysts say. While ocean visibility provider eeSea and Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis both emphasised that a full evaluation of schedule reliability will not be possible until July once a full rotation of deep-sea services has been completed, the data for February and March has Gemini firmly in front. ”While both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have been cautioning that it will take several months before the network is fully in place, they’re off to a good start at 86% for Q1,” eeSea CEO Simon Sundboell said in a market update this week. “You would expect as much, though, as the network starts off with a blank slate, and all vessel positions at zero as they start out on their respective new services,” he added. The field for second-best is crowded, according to eeSea data. Premier Alliance, renamed from THE Alliance after Hapag-Lloyd’s departure and launched in February, recorded on-time performance in the first quarter of 31%, while Ocean Alliance, the only unchanged carrier grouping, was at 25%. MSC, which left the 2M Alliance to operate as a standalone carrier in February, recorded on-time performance of 22%. Non-alliance services are at 30% schedule reliability on east-west services, including the Middle East trades, according to eeSea. Gemini’s network is structured around a hub-and-spoke approach compared to the direct port-to-port services that MSC and the other alliances offer. When fully rolled out, there will be 28 shuttle services operating under the Gemini model, a factor that has raised concerns among shippers that have a historic dislike of transhipment. But the initial data is encouraging. Almost all shuttle services hitting 100% Sea-Intelligence analyzed the performance of the 15 Gemini shuttle services that had arrivals for February, with 10 deployed in Asia, two in Europe and three in the Indian subcontinent/Middle East. The overall schedule reliability for the services was 98.4% in February and all except two services in Asia had 100% schedule reliability. “While we do not yet have a complete rollout of shuttle services, we do have a substantial number of vessel arrivals covered, which is why we can say that these scores are somewhat representative of the general schedule reliability performance of the Gemini shuttle services,” Sea-Intelligence noted in its latest Sunday Spotlight newsletter. That the Gemini services were performing with such high reliability was not unexpected, according to Lars Mikael Jensen, head of hubs at Maersk-owned APM Terminals. “This is not something that we worked out around the coffee machine on a Friday afternoon,” Jensen told customers during a recent briefing on the new services. “This has been ongoing work for five years and in the prototypes, we could see that this would work.” Jensen said fewer port calls meant fewer delays, with the hubs in Gemini’s modular network serving as junction points and the shuttles providing the spokes to destination ports. “Essentially, the shuttles are ferries that go back and forth between hubs and destinations and by covering those ports we don't call direct anymore with the shuttles, we can isolate any problems when they appear and not impact the rest of the service,” he said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

Port News

Container lines

Trans-Atlantic

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

North American ports

Maritime

Gemini Cooperation holds early lead on ocean service reliability: analysts

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The executive order signed Wednesday falls short of providing any details on the proposed port fee plan but directs stricter collection of existing harbor maintenance fees.</div>

The executive order signed Wednesday falls short of providing any details on the proposed port fee plan but directs stricter collection of existing harbor maintenance fees.

<div class="phx-topic">The Trump administration on Wednesday took additional steps toward its plans to grow the US maritime industry with an executive order calling for an increase in domestic defense shipbuilding and attracting more US seafarers. Intermodal shippers will also face new charges for routing cargo through Canada and Mexico ports as Trump targets what he alleges is cargo diversion to avoid such fees.The order, though, did not mention the administration’s proposed port fees on Chinese ships that are also expected to underwrite those efforts. The order signed by President Donald Trump, called a “Maritime Action Plan,” calls for various cabinet officials to undertake efforts to build up domestic shipbuilding capacity and increase the US’ international maritime presence in regions such as the Arctic. The order includes pledges to expand the US Merchant Marine Academy in New York and increase job opportunities for seafarers by growing the US-flag fleet. Those efforts will include the Secretary of Defense reviewing how to increase naval shipbuilding. Trump also wants to develop “Maritime Prosperity Zones” to draw investment to waterfront communities. The proposal is modeled after the “Opportunity Zones” that were included in Trump’s 2017 tax plan offering incentives for investments in distressed communities. The order will also establish a Maritime Security Trust fund that aims to underwrite the various plans. There was no indication how it would be funded, but Trump’s order calls for the Secretary of Homeland Security to strictly enforce collection of the Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF) — the 0.125% charge assessed on seaborne cargo coming through the US — and “other charges on foreign cargo entering the United States to prevent circumvention via Canada or Mexico.” The order also calls for assessing the HMF on any ocean cargo going through Canada and Mexico, plus a 10% service fee for US Customs processing. Trump said in a separate statement that cargo gets diverted through those ports to avoid the HMF. “This will put an end to a longstanding unfair practice, ensuring all cargoes entering the United States are assessed the proper applicable fees and generating additional revenue for investment into the maritime industry,” the White House statement said. While the executive order also directed the US Trade Representative (USTR) to make recommendations on how to combat China’s dominance of the maritime industry, it fell short of adding further details on the proposed fees that would be charged to Chinese-built or -operated ships that enter US ports. The administration appears to be further refining its approach on the controversial fees. USTR Jamieson Greer, appearing before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday, tried to downplay <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-port-fees-could-hit-chinese-ships-under-trump-trade-proposal-5949409">the headline-grabbing fees of up to $1.5 million</a>, saying he’s adjusting the proposal so <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ustrs-china-tonnage-tax-would-squeeze-smaller-trades-stakeholders-5967638">they won’t make US exports uncompetitive</a>. “The USTR’s proposed actions are just those,” Greer said. “They are not all going to be implemented, they are not all going to be stacked. The president will look very carefully to make sure we have the right amount of time and the right incentives to create shipbuilding here without impacting our commodity exports.”Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Trump administration on Wednesday took additional steps toward its plans to grow the US maritime industry with an executive order calling for an increase in domestic defense shipbuilding and attracting more US seafarers. Intermodal shippers will also face new charges for routing cargo through Canada and Mexico ports as Trump targets what he alleges is cargo diversion to avoid such fees. The order, though, did not mention the administration’s proposed port fees on Chinese ships that are also expected to underwrite those efforts. The order signed by President Donald Trump, called a “Maritime Action Plan,” calls for various cabinet officials to undertake efforts to build up domestic shipbuilding capacity and increase the US’ international maritime presence in regions such as the Arctic. The order includes pledges to expand the US Merchant Marine Academy in New York and increase job opportunities for seafarers by growing the US-flag fleet. Those efforts will include the Secretary of Defense reviewing how to increase naval shipbuilding. Trump also wants to develop “Maritime Prosperity Zones” to draw investment to waterfront communities. The proposal is modeled after the “Opportunity Zones” that were included in Trump’s 2017 tax plan offering incentives for investments in distressed communities. The order will also establish a Maritime Security Trust fund that aims to underwrite the various plans. There was no indication how it would be funded, but Trump’s order calls for the Secretary of Homeland Security to strictly enforce collection of the Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF) — the 0.125% charge assessed on seaborne cargo coming through the US — and “other charges on foreign cargo entering the United States to prevent circumvention via Canada or Mexico.” The order also calls for assessing the HMF on any ocean cargo going through Canada and Mexico, plus a 10% service fee for US Customs processing. Trump said in a separate statement that cargo gets diverted through those ports to avoid the HMF. “This will put an end to a longstanding unfair practice, ensuring all cargoes entering the United States are assessed the proper applicable fees and generating additional revenue for investment into the maritime industry,” the White House statement said. While the executive order also directed the US Trade Representative (USTR) to make recommendations on how to combat China’s dominance of the maritime industry, it fell short of adding further details on the proposed fees that would be charged to Chinese-built or -operated ships that enter US ports. The administration appears to be further refining its approach on the controversial fees. USTR Jamieson Greer, appearing before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday, tried to downplay the headline-grabbing fees of up to $1.5 million , saying he’s adjusting the proposal so they won’t make US exports uncompetitive . “The USTR’s proposed actions are just those,” Greer said. “They are not all going to be implemented, they are not all going to be stacked. The president will look very carefully to make sure we have the right amount of time and the right incentives to create shipbuilding here without impacting our commodity exports.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Trump signs order for US shipbuilding, but stays mute on port fees

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar, with forwarders in the trans-Pacific saying US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days.</div>

And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar, with forwarders in the trans-Pacific saying US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days.

<div class="phx-topic">Cargo bookings on vessels leaving Asia bound for the US over the next few weeks have fallen 20% to 30% as retailers delay the receipt of non-critical freight in the aftermath of the widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, sources tell the Journal of Commerce. And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar. Freight forwarders in the trans-Pacific trade say US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days. “It has changed dramatically today. For China cargo, we have had many customers suspend all China shipments,” said Patrick Fay, CEO and co-founder at forwarder BOC International. Fay added most customers are suspending rather than canceling orders, pushing bookings down 30%. Befitting the chaos that has marked the on-again, off-again nature of the tariff rollout, President Donald Trump on Wednesday afternoon announced in a social media post he was lowering the widely varied “reciprocal” tariffs on all countries — except China — to a 10% baseline for 90 days. And in what has become a near-daily escalation of the trade war with Beijing, Trump said he was again raising tariffs on goods imported from China, this time to 125%. Meanwhile, the decline in vessel bookings is reflected in data. According to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet, some 225,900 TEUs of US imports from Asia were booked in the last seven days, down from about 633,000 TEUs booked the week prior. A source at an ocean carrier said he has heard talk of as much as 70% of bookings being canceled this week, but acknowledged that number is probably too high. “I think 20%-30% is a safe number,” the source said, echoing the views of forwarders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce. Rachel Shames, vice president of pricing and procurement at the forwarder CV International, said retailers attempting to plan for what volumes to ship is “the big challenge.” “Deciding on their volume is the big question mark [in the wake of the tariffs],” she said. US retailers on Wednesday, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-retailers-issue-big-downgrade-in-import-forecast-amid-expected-tariff-pullback-5980419">significantly downgraded their projections</a> for imports over the next several months, chalking it up to uncertainty over tariffs. But the carrier source said he expects imports will pick up strongly during the late summer to fall peak shipping season, saying the tariff negotiations between the US and most Asian nations outside of China should produce some clarity for importers by the key peak season. “Once the tariffs settle down, except for China, there should be clarity,” the source said. “Q2 will be bad, but we may see a rebound in Q3.” <h3>Waiting for carrier response </h3>Even with the drop in bookings, ocean carriers have yet to respond with any significant withdrawal of capacity. For the month of April, ocean carriers have plans to cancel 19 sailings to the Southern California ports, according to forwarder Spedag Americas, amounting to a nearly 14% capacity drop during the month. The Pacific Northwest ports will see 10 fewer sailings during April, amounting to a 20% capacity withdrawal. April’s blank sailings, though, come against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand ahead of shippers ramping up bookings for summer and back-to-school merchandise. However, in a sign of slowing or flat demand further ahead, Ocean Network Express said Tuesday it would not resume its previously suspended PN4 service to the Pacific Northwest in May as had been expected. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Cargo bookings on vessels leaving Asia bound for the US over the next few weeks have fallen 20% to 30% as retailers delay the receipt of non-critical freight in the aftermath of the widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, sources tell the Journal of Commerce. And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar. Freight forwarders in the trans-Pacific trade say US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days. “It has changed dramatically today. For China cargo, we have had many customers suspend all China shipments,” said Patrick Fay, CEO and co-founder at forwarder BOC International. Fay added most customers are suspending rather than canceling orders, pushing bookings down 30%. Befitting the chaos that has marked the on-again, off-again nature of the tariff rollout, President Donald Trump on Wednesday afternoon announced in a social media post he was lowering the widely varied “reciprocal” tariffs on all countries — except China — to a 10% baseline for 90 days. And in what has become a near-daily escalation of the trade war with Beijing, Trump said he was again raising tariffs on goods imported from China, this time to 125%. Meanwhile, the decline in vessel bookings is reflected in data. According to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet, some 225,900 TEUs of US imports from Asia were booked in the last seven days, down from about 633,000 TEUs booked the week prior. A source at an ocean carrier said he has heard talk of as much as 70% of bookings being canceled this week, but acknowledged that number is probably too high. “I think 20%-30% is a safe number,” the source said, echoing the views of forwarders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce. Rachel Shames, vice president of pricing and procurement at the forwarder CV International, said retailers attempting to plan for what volumes to ship is “the big challenge.” “Deciding on their volume is the big question mark [in the wake of the tariffs],” she said. US retailers on Wednesday, meanwhile, significantly downgraded their projections for imports over the next several months, chalking it up to uncertainty over tariffs. But the carrier source said he expects imports will pick up strongly during the late summer to fall peak shipping season, saying the tariff negotiations between the US and most Asian nations outside of China should produce some clarity for importers by the key peak season. “Once the tariffs settle down, except for China, there should be clarity,” the source said. “Q2 will be bad, but we may see a rebound in Q3.” Waiting for carrier response Even with the drop in bookings, ocean carriers have yet to respond with any significant withdrawal of capacity. For the month of April, ocean carriers have plans to cancel 19 sailings to the Southern California ports, according to forwarder Spedag Americas, amounting to a nearly 14% capacity drop during the month. The Pacific Northwest ports will see 10 fewer sailings during April, amounting to a 20% capacity withdrawal. April’s blank sailings, though, come against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand ahead of shippers ramping up bookings for summer and back-to-school merchandise. However, in a sign of slowing or flat demand further ahead, Ocean Network Express said Tuesday it would not resume its previously suspended PN4 service to the Pacific Northwest in May as had been expected. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

Forwarding

Tariff uncertainty causes plunge in US cargo bookings at Asia load ports

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The latest Global Port Tracker demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. </div>

The latest Global Port Tracker demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago.

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers on Wednesday significantly downgraded import projections for the second quarter in the aftermath of widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, saying cargo landing at the country’s ports in May and June will be down more than 20% from a forecast made just last month. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), demonstrates <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-us-tariffs-forcing-shippers-to-recalculate-supply-chains-on-the-fly-5976471">the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains</a> since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. “In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the GPT. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.” The new GPT calls for May US imports of 1.66 million TEUs — down 22.4% from March’s forecast and 20.1% lower than actual volumes from May 2024. If the May reductions come to fruition, it would represent the first year-over-year US import drop for any month since September 2023. Retailers are now forecasting imports of 1.57 million TEUs for June, down more than 24% compared with the March GPT. Meanwhile, July import expectations were lowered by 15% to 1.69 million TEUs. Both months are positioned to see import volumes shrink by almost 27% year over year. <h3>Import declines stretch to start of peak season </h3>In its first forecast for August, the GPT projects imports of 1.7 million TEUs for the month, which would be 26.7% lower than actual volumes from 2024. “Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the GPT. “Retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.” Even before the projected slowdown in imports, retail inventory growth has waned in the past year. The ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, edged up in January to 1.32 from 1.3 in December, according to US Census Bureau data. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d87b54a4-01d0-4f80-9faf-0230de37cf46"></dynamic-object></div>April imports are projected at 2.08 million TEUs, almost 3% higher than last year but 2.3% below the forecast made in March. Preliminary March import data from the NRF shows that US ports handled 2.14 million TEUs, up 10.8% from March 2024 and aligning with forecasts made in the last month’s GPT. The updated forecast brings the first-half projection for US imports to 11.73 million TEUs, down 8.2% from expectations made prior to the Trump tariffs announcement and nearly 3% lower than actual first-half 2024 volumes. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US retailers on Wednesday significantly downgraded import projections for the second quarter in the aftermath of widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, saying cargo landing at the country’s ports in May and June will be down more than 20% from a forecast made just last month. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. “In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the GPT. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.” The new GPT calls for May US imports of 1.66 million TEUs — down 22.4% from March’s forecast and 20.1% lower than actual volumes from May 2024. If the May reductions come to fruition, it would represent the first year-over-year US import drop for any month since September 2023. Retailers are now forecasting imports of 1.57 million TEUs for June, down more than 24% compared with the March GPT. Meanwhile, July import expectations were lowered by 15% to 1.69 million TEUs. Both months are positioned to see import volumes shrink by almost 27% year over year. Import declines stretch to start of peak season In its first forecast for August, the GPT projects imports of 1.7 million TEUs for the month, which would be 26.7% lower than actual volumes from 2024. “Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the GPT. “Retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.” Even before the projected slowdown in imports, retail inventory growth has waned in the past year. The ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, edged up in January to 1.32 from 1.3 in December, according to US Census Bureau data. April imports are projected at 2.08 million TEUs, almost 3% higher than last year but 2.3% below the forecast made in March. Preliminary March import data from the NRF shows that US ports handled 2.14 million TEUs, up 10.8% from March 2024 and aligning with forecasts made in the last month’s GPT. The updated forecast brings the first-half projection for US imports to 11.73 million TEUs, down 8.2% from expectations made prior to the Trump tariffs announcement and nearly 3% lower than actual first-half 2024 volumes. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

US retailers issue big downgrade in import forecast amid expected tariff pullback

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The expansion of the semi-submersible and deck carrier fleet comes amid a forecast rebound in offshore markets, with $46 billion worth of oil and gas EPC contracts anticipated this year and $52 billion in 2026. </div>

The expansion of the semi-submersible and deck carrier fleet comes amid a forecast rebound in offshore markets, with $46 billion worth of oil and gas EPC contracts anticipated this year and $52 billion in 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">Two Asia-headquartered heavy-lift operators are expanding their semi-submersible deck and module carrier fleets with new vessel orders as they anticipate a rejuvenation of the global offshore energy sector starting this year.China’s Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers awarded a $142 million order to Guangzhou Shipyard International for a 70,000-deadweight metric ton (dwt) semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel for delivery in May 2027. That came as NYK Bulk &amp; Projects Carriers, a subsidiary of NYK Line, placed an order for a 33,000-dwt deck carrier at Chinese shipbuilder Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. (DSIC) with delivery scheduled for 2027 — the company’s first shipbuilding contract with DSIC. Commenting on the NYK deal, Daisuke Takahashi, manager at NYK Bulk &amp; Project Carriers, told the Journal of Commerce that only limited information was available. The vessel has been designed by Shanghai Merchant Ship Design and Research Institute (SDARI).The ship will join NYK’s two heavy deck carriers, the 19,812-dwt Yamatai and Yamato, both built in 2010 and fitted with a hull air lubrication system that has resulted in fuel savings of between 3% and 5%, Takahashi said.The new vessel will trade globally. “We go where the projects and opportunities are,” he added.Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers already owns the world’s largest fleet of semi-submersible deck vessels with 18 ships ranging in size from 20,000 dwt to 98,000 dwt, including two of the world’s biggest semi-submersible vessels. The new vessel will trade globally and support Cosco’s further expansion into the semi-submersible transport of heavy structures including drilling rigs and offshore structures.Semi-submersible vessels and module carriers have large, strengthened, unobstructed decks allowing them to carry extremely large, heavy or awkwardly-sized project cargoes such as wind turbines, industrial structures and oil and gas modules.Semi-submersibles can ballast down the deck and allow heavy cargoes to be floated into position, while module carriers can transport roll-on/roll-off cargoes.<h3>Energy-related spending forecast to rise </h3>Highlighting the rebound in offshore markets, Westwood Global Energy Group estimated that about $46 billion worth of offshore oil and gas-related engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts will be awarded this year, including 90 drilling and production platforms. That will increase to $52 billion worth of EPC contracts next year, the energy consultancy said in a March report.While that is down from approximately $55 billion worth of awards last year, it matches the $46 billion awarded in 2023.Westwood also forecast a recovery in the offshore wind energy sector with “record amounts of capacity that could reach final investment decision” status this year after the last several years of projects being delayed due to cost and government policy issues.Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Two Asia-headquartered heavy-lift operators are expanding their semi-submersible deck and module carrier fleets with new vessel orders as they anticipate a rejuvenation of the global offshore energy sector starting this year. China’s Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers awarded a $142 million order to Guangzhou Shipyard International for a 70,000-deadweight metric ton (dwt) semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel for delivery in May 2027. That came as NYK Bulk & Projects Carriers, a subsidiary of NYK Line, placed an order for a 33,000-dwt deck carrier at Chinese shipbuilder Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. (DSIC) with delivery scheduled for 2027 — the company’s first shipbuilding contract with DSIC. Commenting on the NYK deal, Daisuke Takahashi, manager at NYK Bulk & Project Carriers, told the Journal of Commerce that only limited information was available. The vessel has been designed by Shanghai Merchant Ship Design and Research Institute (SDARI). The ship will join NYK’s two heavy deck carriers, the 19,812-dwt Yamatai and Yamato, both built in 2010 and fitted with a hull air lubrication system that has resulted in fuel savings of between 3% and 5%, Takahashi said. The new vessel will trade globally. “We go where the projects and opportunities are,” he added. Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers already owns the world’s largest fleet of semi-submersible deck vessels with 18 ships ranging in size from 20,000 dwt to 98,000 dwt, including two of the world’s biggest semi-submersible vessels. The new vessel will trade globally and support Cosco’s further expansion into the semi-submersible transport of heavy structures including drilling rigs and offshore structures. Semi-submersible vessels and module carriers have large, strengthened, unobstructed decks allowing them to carry extremely large, heavy or awkwardly-sized project cargoes such as wind turbines, industrial structures and oil and gas modules. Semi-submersibles can ballast down the deck and allow heavy cargoes to be floated into position, while module carriers can transport roll-on/roll-off cargoes. Energy-related spending forecast to rise Highlighting the rebound in offshore markets, Westwood Global Energy Group estimated that about $46 billion worth of offshore oil and gas-related engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts will be awarded this year, including 90 drilling and production platforms. That will increase to $52 billion worth of EPC contracts next year, the energy consultancy said in a March report. While that is down from approximately $55 billion worth of awards last year, it matches the $46 billion awarded in 2023. Westwood also forecast a recovery in the offshore wind energy sector with “record amounts of capacity that could reach final investment decision” status this year after the last several years of projects being delayed due to cost and government policy issues. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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