<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">MIDDLE EASTPERSIAN GULF STATESMore Persian Gulf countries are taking steps to allow </div>

MIDDLE EASTPERSIAN GULF STATESMore Persian Gulf countries are taking steps to allow

<div>MIDDLE EASTPERSIAN GULF STATESMore Persian Gulf countries are taking steps to allow foreign investors to put money into their stock markets. Changes will remain limited, however, since the countries are still sensitive about domination by foreigners and are concerned not to lose control of key areas of their economies. Following Oman, which changed its rules in 1994, the United Arab Emirates plans to allow foreigners to own units in its first-ever mutual fund. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority has given permission for Saudi-American Bank to set up a closed-end investment fund. The fund will be listed on the London Stock...

MIDDLE EAST PERSIAN GULF STATES More Persian Gulf countries are taking steps to allow foreign investors to put money into their stock markets. Changes will remain limited, however, since the countries are still sensitive about domination by foreigners and are concerned not to lose control of key areas of their economies. Following Oman, which changed its rules in 1994, the United Arab Emirates plans to allow foreigners to own units in its first-ever mutual fund. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority has given permission for Saudi-American Bank to set up a closed-end investment fund. The fund will be listed on the London Stock Exchange. Reports from the kingdom suggest it will be open to all foreign investors. LATIN AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN BRAZIL The central bank raised the tax rate on personal credit from 6 percent to 15 percent annually. The move follows a series of microeconomic adjustments designed to slow spending on imports and to attract foreign capital to fixed-income investments as a means of financing the growing current-account deficit. The trade gap is expected to reach $10 billion to $15 billion this year, and the current-account deficit as much as $35 billion. The impact of the tax hike will be greatest on longer-term credit operations for higher-value goods. As Brazilian shoppers pay more attention to the size of individual installments than to final cost, it is likely to result in longer credit periods rather than higher installments. This will increase the default risk for retailers. Other tariff adjustments penalize importers of telephone equipment in favor of local producers. WESTERN EUROPE EUROPEAN UNION The EU Commission is proposing to impose common rules for airport charges throughout the European Union that would oblige airports to justify the level of fees they charge to airlines for landing rights and services such as parking and refueling. However, the proposal, which must be approved by transport ministers before it becomes law, does not seek to harmonize charges at the EU level by imposing binding rules. Currently, charges vary considerably from airport to airport, representing from 5 percent to as much as 10 percent of the operating costs of European airlines. The burden falls particularly on smaller carriers, the commission says, and can be a disincentive to new operators, thus reducing competition in the sector. CENTRAL/EASTERN EUROPE ROMANIA The World Bank approved $550 million in loans to help Romania overhaul its economy and fight poverty. The three loans are $50 million to help the poor, $350 million for agricultural reform and $150 million to improve Romania's highways. Romania earlier this year launched an economic shock therapy program after a centrist coalition ousted leftists in 1996 elections. It has tightened monetary policies, liberalized fuel, energy and food prices and adopted an austerity budget. The World Bank said its $50 million social protection loan was aimed at helping the poor. The $350 million credit for agricultural reform will help speed up privatization and increase rural employment. ASIA-PACIFIC TAIWAN According to the Economist Intelligence Unit Country Forecast, real gross domestic product growth will hit 6 percent this year and 6.3 percent in 1998. The economy will be driven by private consumption and gross domestic investment as the merchandise trade surplus continues to expand. The deficit on services will also grow, though the current-account surplus should be maintained at around $9 billion to $10 billion. Provided there is no sudden large outflow of capital, these factors will ensure that the New Taiwan dollar strengthens steadily, reaching about NT$25 to the U.S. dollar by the end of the forecast period. At the same time, Taiwan's hopes of membership in the World Trade Organization will lead to a steady liberalization of the economy. AFRICA NIGERIA Nigeria's military rulers are offering no official explanation for the fuel crisis that began in March in the commercial capital of Lagos and has since spread to the Middle Belt and parts of the north. The state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and its patrons in the petroleum resources ministry privately blame this year's budget, in which the finance minister cut oil supplies to the three NNPC-operated refineries by nearly 20 percent. NNPC insists that it has the capacity to meet domestic consumer demand if it is given adequate resources. The Finance Ministry contends that the shortages are the product of corruption and incompetence within the corporation. NORTH AMERICA CANADA Canada will follow the United States in banning the use of most slaughtered animal parts in livestock feed because of fears of ''mad cow'' disease. Dr. Graham Clarke, chief of red meat inspection for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, said the ban will be in force when the U.S. policy kicks in Aug. 4. The ban specifies that no meat or bone meal from slaughtered mammals - including cattle, sheep and goats - can be used as feed. There are exceptions where there are ''no known risks,'' said Dr. Clarke, such as pigs, horses, animal fat, milk products and ''plate waste from restaurants.'' There has only been one case of mad cow disease in Canada, resulting in the slaughter of a cattle herd in Alberta in 1993.

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The acquisition is part of a surge in logistics M&amp;A transactions aimed at simplifying access to systems and services for shippers and brokers.</div>

The acquisition is part of a surge in logistics M&A transactions aimed at simplifying access to systems and services for shippers and brokers.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Third-party logistics provider (3PL) BlueGrace Logistics on Tuesday said it will acquire FreightCenter, an online truck freight management and pricing platform. The transaction, terms of which were not disclosed, will connect FreightCenter’s shipper customers directly to BlueGrace’s transportation management system (TMS). “This acquisition is the perfect opportunity to enhance the logistics experience for thousands of customers,” BlueGrace CEO Bobby Harris said in a statement. BlueGrace’s technology complements FreightCenter’s commitment to “simplifying freight for our customers,” FreightCenter CEO Matthew Brosious said in the statement. FreightCenter is not a digital logistics newcomer. The company was founded in 1998 by Brosious and his father as a storefront shipping business called “Send It Packing.” In the early 2000s, Brosious leveraged the internet to create an online platform that provided less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload rates, bookings and shipment tracking. The deal is part of a surge in logistics technology <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ma-pace-signals-truckload-tech-industry-unsure-about-unbundling-5909043">merger and acquisition activity</a> propelled by customers’ need for ease of service alongside expanded service options. Following a rapid growth of logistics technology systems and companies in recent years, shippers and brokers are looking to get more value from fewer systems. That is spurring buyouts and integrations in the technology space serving shippers and brokers. Larger logistics tech providers are racing to build end-to-end offerings. For example, DAT, the largest US spot market load board, recently <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/dat-acquires-trucker-tools-in-move-to-reduce-load-board-driver-churn-5907848">acquired Trucker Tools</a>, a platform used by brokers to book loads and track carriers and shipments. At BlueGrace, FreightCenter customers will have access to load optimization tools the Tampa-based 3PL acquired when it purchased Evos Smart Tools last year. Technology providers are also dealing with the impacts of a prolonged freight recession and the proliferation of AI in all types of systems. Acquisitions can help tech companies position themselves for an eventual freight recovery and for more widespread adoption of AI in logistics systems. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Third-party logistics provider (3PL) BlueGrace Logistics on Tuesday said it will acquire FreightCenter, an online truck freight management and pricing platform. The transaction, terms of which were not disclosed, will connect FreightCenter’s shipper customers directly to BlueGrace’s transportation management system (TMS). “This acquisition is the perfect opportunity to enhance the logistics experience for thousands of customers,” BlueGrace CEO Bobby Harris said in a statement. BlueGrace’s technology complements FreightCenter’s commitment to “simplifying freight for our customers,” FreightCenter CEO Matthew Brosious said in the statement. FreightCenter is not a digital logistics newcomer. The company was founded in 1998 by Brosious and his father as a storefront shipping business called “Send It Packing.” In the early 2000s, Brosious leveraged the internet to create an online platform that provided less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload rates, bookings and shipment tracking. The deal is part of a surge in logistics technology merger and acquisition activity propelled by customers’ need for ease of service alongside expanded service options. Following a rapid growth of logistics technology systems and companies in recent years, shippers and brokers are looking to get more value from fewer systems. That is spurring buyouts and integrations in the technology space serving shippers and brokers. Larger logistics tech providers are racing to build end-to-end offerings. For example, DAT, the largest US spot market load board, recently acquired Trucker Tools , a platform used by brokers to book loads and track carriers and shipments. At BlueGrace, FreightCenter customers will have access to load optimization tools the Tampa-based 3PL acquired when it purchased Evos Smart Tools last year. Technology providers are also dealing with the impacts of a prolonged freight recession and the proliferation of AI in all types of systems. Acquisitions can help tech companies position themselves for an eventual freight recovery and for more widespread adoption of AI in logistics systems. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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BlueGrace joins logistics M&A wave, adding FreightCenter to its portfolio

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The challenges for truck demand growth in 2025 vary depending on activity in four major sectors: warehousing, office, data centers and manufacturing, according to Jason Miller.</div>

The challenges for truck demand growth in 2025 vary depending on activity in four major sectors: warehousing, office, data centers and manufacturing, according to Jason Miller.

<div class="phx-topic">While I forecast that demand conditions in the US for-hire trucking sector will improve in 2025 after approximately 10 quarters of freight volume declines, mixed conditions in nonresidential construction pose headwinds for freight demand, according to an analysis of US Census Bureau data adjusted for inflation, when appropriate. The challenges for truck demand growth vary depending on the four major sectors: warehousing, office, data centers and manufacturing. <h3>Warehouse construction</h3>Warehouse construction experienced a boom after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as retailers rushed to add fulfillment center capacity in response to a sharp increase in e-commerce sales, which saw over 40% year-over-year growth starting in the second quarter of 2020 through early 2021. However, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-warehouse-vacancies-expected-to-fall-from-2024-peak-5912895">demand for warehousing space has cooled</a> since 2022 highs as retailers such as general merchandisers, who, after increasing physical inventories by almost 20% above pre-COVID-19 levels by mid-2022, downsized inventories by about 9%. Consistent with cooling warehousing demand, the inflation-adjusted value of warehousing construction declined approximately 19% in 2024 from 2023 levels, with the important caveat that current construction levels remain near those witnessed in late 2019. The good news for trucking companies hauling these construction materials is that construction appears to be moving along the bottom of a trough. Considering that we are entering 2025 with interest rates 100 basis points below their 2024 levels, Chinese e-commerce firms expanding their US warehousing footprint to provide more rapid fulfillment, and increasing scrutiny of de minimis shipments such as Mexico’s recently <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/mexico-curtails-duty-free-fulfillment-option-for-apparel-textile-importers-5911557">announced crackdown</a> of duty-free textile and apparel imports, positive demand tailwinds should result in more demand for warehousing space. <h3>Office building construction</h3><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5918532_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Despite the attention devoted to warehousing construction, office building construction exceeds warehousing construction by a wide margin on a dollar-value basis (averaging $84.1 billion dollars on an annual basis in 2024 versus $61 billion for warehousing). Unfortunately for trucking firms that haul materials to office building construction sites, inflation-adjusted construction of office buildings has been moving horizontally since early 2023 and is down approximately 29% from levels observed in 2019. Although some companies have curtailed remote work, levels of working from home have been stable since January 2023, according to Stanford economist Nick Bloom. That suggests no uptick in office building construction is coming in 2025. <h3>Data center construction</h3>Data center construction in the US has been surging over the past two years, with inflation-adjusted construction up 80% as of November 2024 from the average level observed in 2023. For perspective, construction levels today are 12 times what they were a decade ago, adjusted for inflation. At present, the greatest hurdle for constructing data centers does not appear to be demand — which is voracious — but rather supply-side constraints such as obtaining enough electricians and electricity, and even municipalities placing limits on datacenter construction. Motor carriers hauling freight for electric equipment manufacturers are set to benefit from the AI computing boom placing strains on current power generation and transmission capacity, with domestic production in this sector currently at the highest levels seen since the global financial crisis. <h3>Manufacturing plant construction </h3>On the surface, data for spending on manufacturing plants looks downright rosy, with the inflation-adjusted value of construction put in place currently 20% above 2023 levels and double levels observed in 2017–19. As manufacturing accounts for most for-hire trucking demand, a cursory look would suggest not only strong demand for hauling materials to build plants, but a surge of demand coming in the future once these plants are completed. However, there is an important caveat: most of the increase in construction spending is for electronics and electrical equipment, appliances and components. These subsectors are capturing investment in semiconductor plants and electric vehicle batteries. In 2019, the value of construction put in place for those subsectors was $8.3 billion; for the first 11 months of 2024, it was $128.3 billion (annualized), or 15.4 times greater. In comparison, construction of all other factories has increased from $72.3 billion in 2019 to $103 billion in 2024 (annualized), and that isn’t considering inflation. On an inflation-adjusted basis, investment in sectors outside of electronics and electrical goods remains unchanged from 2019 levels. Given semiconductor plants generate relatively limited volumes of freight for for-hire trucking companies, the construction spending data for the remainder of manufacturing coupled with the <a href="https://data.census.gov/table/BDSTIMESERIES.BDSEAGE?y=2022&amp;n=31-33">tepid number of new plant openings in the US</a> since the end of the global financial crisis means trucking firms should not anticipate a flood of freight from newly opened US factories in 2025. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="4b6ae736-687b-4c74-b77f-e2ec3ce581c7"></dynamic-object></div><h3>What I’ll be watching</h3>The index I will be watching most closely in 2025 to understand the impact of construction activity on freight demand is the Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for construction supplies. Movements of that index, which captures production of architectural and structural metals, concrete and concrete products, construction steel, stone mining and quarrying, and various plastic products, to name a few sectors, correspond well to periods recognized as bull versus bear markets for freight demand. Currently, that index appears to be moving along the bottom of a trough after nearly three years of decline from its most recent peak in the first quarter of 2022. An increase in this index will be a harbinger of better days to come for trucking companies. Contact Jason Miller at <a href="mailto:mill2831@broad.msu.edu">mill2831@broad.msu.edu</a>.</div>

While I forecast that demand conditions in the US for-hire trucking sector will improve in 2025 after approximately 10 quarters of freight volume declines, mixed conditions in nonresidential construction pose headwinds for freight demand, according to an analysis of US Census Bureau data adjusted for inflation, when appropriate. The challenges for truck demand growth vary depending on the four major sectors: warehousing, office, data centers and manufacturing. Warehouse construction Warehouse construction experienced a boom after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as retailers rushed to add fulfillment center capacity in response to a sharp increase in e-commerce sales, which saw over 40% year-over-year growth starting in the second quarter of 2020 through early 2021. However, demand for warehousing space has cooled since 2022 highs as retailers such as general merchandisers, who, after increasing physical inventories by almost 20% above pre-COVID-19 levels by mid-2022, downsized inventories by about 9%. Consistent with cooling warehousing demand, the inflation-adjusted value of warehousing construction declined approximately 19% in 2024 from 2023 levels, with the important caveat that current construction levels remain near those witnessed in late 2019. The good news for trucking companies hauling these construction materials is that construction appears to be moving along the bottom of a trough. Considering that we are entering 2025 with interest rates 100 basis points below their 2024 levels, Chinese e-commerce firms expanding their US warehousing footprint to provide more rapid fulfillment, and increasing scrutiny of de minimis shipments such as Mexico’s recently announced crackdown of duty-free textile and apparel imports, positive demand tailwinds should result in more demand for warehousing space. Office building construction Despite the attention devoted to warehousing construction, office building construction exceeds warehousing construction by a wide margin on a dollar-value basis (averaging $84.1 billion dollars on an annual basis in 2024 versus $61 billion for warehousing). Unfortunately for trucking firms that haul materials to office building construction sites, inflation-adjusted construction of office buildings has been moving horizontally since early 2023 and is down approximately 29% from levels observed in 2019. Although some companies have curtailed remote work, levels of working from home have been stable since January 2023, according to Stanford economist Nick Bloom. That suggests no uptick in office building construction is coming in 2025. Data center construction Data center construction in the US has been surging over the past two years, with inflation-adjusted construction up 80% as of November 2024 from the average level observed in 2023. For perspective, construction levels today are 12 times what they were a decade ago, adjusted for inflation. At present, the greatest hurdle for constructing data centers does not appear to be demand — which is voracious — but rather supply-side constraints such as obtaining enough electricians and electricity, and even municipalities placing limits on datacenter construction. Motor carriers hauling freight for electric equipment manufacturers are set to benefit from the AI computing boom placing strains on current power generation and transmission capacity, with domestic production in this sector currently at the highest levels seen since the global financial crisis. Manufacturing plant construction On the surface, data for spending on manufacturing plants looks downright rosy, with the inflation-adjusted value of construction put in place currently 20% above 2023 levels and double levels observed in 2017–19. As manufacturing accounts for most for-hire trucking demand, a cursory look would suggest not only strong demand for hauling materials to build plants, but a surge of demand coming in the future once these plants are completed. However, there is an important caveat: most of the increase in construction spending is for electronics and electrical equipment, appliances and components. These subsectors are capturing investment in semiconductor plants and electric vehicle batteries. In 2019, the value of construction put in place for those subsectors was $8.3 billion; for the first 11 months of 2024, it was $128.3 billion (annualized), or 15.4 times greater. In comparison, construction of all other factories has increased from $72.3 billion in 2019 to $103 billion in 2024 (annualized), and that isn’t considering inflation. On an inflation-adjusted basis, investment in sectors outside of electronics and electrical goods remains unchanged from 2019 levels. Given semiconductor plants generate relatively limited volumes of freight for for-hire trucking companies, the construction spending data for the remainder of manufacturing coupled with the tepid number of new plant openings in the US since the end of the global financial crisis means trucking firms should not anticipate a flood of freight from newly opened US factories in 2025. What I’ll be watching The index I will be watching most closely in 2025 to understand the impact of construction activity on freight demand is the Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for construction supplies. Movements of that index, which captures production of architectural and structural metals, concrete and concrete products, construction steel, stone mining and quarrying, and various plastic products, to name a few sectors, correspond well to periods recognized as bull versus bear markets for freight demand. Currently, that index appears to be moving along the bottom of a trough after nearly three years of decline from its most recent peak in the first quarter of 2022. An increase in this index will be a harbinger of better days to come for trucking companies. Contact Jason Miller at mill2831@broad.msu.edu .

Surface

Nonresidential construction a headwind for trucking demand: analyst

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Carriers adopting a “wait-and-see” approach to the new regulation will face significant penalties and a potential loss of income from decarbonization-focused customers, according to a report from the classification society.</div>

Carriers adopting a “wait-and-see” approach to the new regulation will face significant penalties and a potential loss of income from decarbonization-focused customers, according to a report from the classification society.

<div class="phx-topic">The <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/container-carriers-to-shoulder-bulk-of-europe-fuel-intensity-rule-5192246">FuelEU regulation</a> that came into effect on Jan. 1 is “a major market intervention” by the European Union that will determine the long-term profitability and sustainable operation of vessels in European waters, according to Lloyd’s Register. While compliance with the EU <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/european-parliament-approves-shipping-ets-but-stakeholders-wary-5202492">Emissions Trading Scheme</a> (ETS) carbon tax represents an immediate cost for shipping companies, the financial implications of FuelEU for shipowners electing to continue using fossil fuels may be gradual but would ultimately be significantly higher. “Today, many owners and managers are concerned with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme designed to reduce emissions produced by shipping,” Ryan Bax, lead business advisory consultant at Lloyd’s Register (LR), noted in a recent report from the classification society. “However, LR projections show that the impact of FuelEU will eclipse that of the ETS around 2035 and dwarf it beyond that,” Bax added. “Business as usual is therefore no longer an option and progressive decisions must be made to deal with this challenge.” FuelEU requires shipping companies to increase their uptake of renewable and low-carbon fuels by setting limits on the yearly average greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of the energy used by vessels calling at European ports. The limits start this year with a 2% reduction and require an 80% reduction by 2050. The ETS tax of 40% on carbon emissions in 2024 increases to 70% this year. To recover and pass on those costs to cargo owners, carriers have announced plans to simplify the process by <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/carriers-roll-out-new-fuel-surcharges-as-eu-emissions-rules-tighten-5906178">merging compliance with the ETS and FuelEU</a> regulations into one fuel surcharge. Bax warned that carriers adopting a “wait-and-see” approach would find themselves subject to penalties and the need to buy surplus fuels to comply with the rule, as well as facing reduced income from customers wanting to reduce their indirect “scope 3” value chain emissions. The Lloyd’s report estimated that for a fleet of five ships running the same marine fossil fuel mix as today, and each using 5,000 metric tons of fuel per year between 2030 and 2034, the shipowner would pay penalties of €5.6 million ($5.8 million) in 2030, rising to €7.2 million in 2034. <h3>Significant revenue driver </h3>Bax said increasing the use of lower emission fuels comes at a cost, but it could also generate returns that “can be significant.” “If a ton of CO2 equivalent emissions could be worth at least €500 on the open market, and you can save 7,500 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions a year, you see how this can quickly turn into a significant driver of revenue,” he noted. While shipping companies wrestle with the cost implications of FuelEU compliance, the commercial and contractual implications of the regulations add another highly complex element, according to Eirik Nyhus, director of environment for maritime at classification society DNV. “Dealing with responsibilities, liabilities and assets in this ever-changing interplay between managers, owners and charterers is going to require new contract structures, and that needs to happen quickly,” Nyhus said in a recent podcast. “This has commercial and contractual implications, as charter parties rarely line up with the annual compliance cycle, meaning that contracts need to deal with how incurred liabilities and assets are handled as charters start and end during the reporting year,” he added. Another key part of managing the regulation was data, Nyhus noted. ”If the managers, owners and charterers don’t have a common agreement on what the real data underpinning contract settlements is, there will be real difficulties and potential litigation,” he said. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The FuelEU regulation that came into effect on Jan. 1 is “a major market intervention” by the European Union that will determine the long-term profitability and sustainable operation of vessels in European waters, according to Lloyd’s Register. While compliance with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon tax represents an immediate cost for shipping companies, the financial implications of FuelEU for shipowners electing to continue using fossil fuels may be gradual but would ultimately be significantly higher. “Today, many owners and managers are concerned with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme designed to reduce emissions produced by shipping,” Ryan Bax, lead business advisory consultant at Lloyd’s Register (LR), noted in a recent report from the classification society. “However, LR projections show that the impact of FuelEU will eclipse that of the ETS around 2035 and dwarf it beyond that,” Bax added. “Business as usual is therefore no longer an option and progressive decisions must be made to deal with this challenge.” FuelEU requires shipping companies to increase their uptake of renewable and low-carbon fuels by setting limits on the yearly average greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of the energy used by vessels calling at European ports. The limits start this year with a 2% reduction and require an 80% reduction by 2050. The ETS tax of 40% on carbon emissions in 2024 increases to 70% this year. To recover and pass on those costs to cargo owners, carriers have announced plans to simplify the process by merging compliance with the ETS and FuelEU regulations into one fuel surcharge. Bax warned that carriers adopting a “wait-and-see” approach would find themselves subject to penalties and the need to buy surplus fuels to comply with the rule, as well as facing reduced income from customers wanting to reduce their indirect “scope 3” value chain emissions. The Lloyd’s report estimated that for a fleet of five ships running the same marine fossil fuel mix as today, and each using 5,000 metric tons of fuel per year between 2030 and 2034, the shipowner would pay penalties of €5.6 million ($5.8 million) in 2030, rising to €7.2 million in 2034. Significant revenue driver Bax said increasing the use of lower emission fuels comes at a cost, but it could also generate returns that “can be significant.” “If a ton of CO2 equivalent emissions could be worth at least €500 on the open market, and you can save 7,500 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions a year, you see how this can quickly turn into a significant driver of revenue,” he noted. While shipping companies wrestle with the cost implications of FuelEU compliance, the commercial and contractual implications of the regulations add another highly complex element, according to Eirik Nyhus, director of environment for maritime at classification society DNV. “Dealing with responsibilities, liabilities and assets in this ever-changing interplay between managers, owners and charterers is going to require new contract structures, and that needs to happen quickly,” Nyhus said in a recent podcast. “This has commercial and contractual implications, as charter parties rarely line up with the annual compliance cycle, meaning that contracts need to deal with how incurred liabilities and assets are handled as charters start and end during the reporting year,” he added. Another key part of managing the regulation was data, Nyhus noted. ”If the managers, owners and charterers don’t have a common agreement on what the real data underpinning contract settlements is, there will be real difficulties and potential litigation,” he said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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High price to pay for non-compliance with FuelEU rules: Lloyd’s Register

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Whereas 2024 was a banner year for US West Coast ports, the pendulum could swing back to East and Gulf coast ports in 2025. </div>

Whereas 2024 was a banner year for US West Coast ports, the pendulum could swing back to East and Gulf coast ports in 2025.

<div class="phx-topic">The big picture: US West Coast ports lost some of their share of imports from Asia in 2022–23 during the protracted contract negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and West Coast employers. The tables turned in 2024, when East and Gulf coast dockworkers engaged in contentious contract negotiations of their own and discretionary cargo returned to the West Coast. The main challenge facing West Coast ports entering 2025 will be to mitigate the rail container backlogs that inevitably occur during peak periods when import volumes exceed the railroads’ designed network capacity. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5914610_0.1.png"></img></div>A look back: The lengthy and contentious contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and employers on the East and Gulf coasts drove a large volume of discretionary imports to the West Coast in 2024. Frontloading of imports through the West Coast continued last fall in anticipation of the threatened tariffs under a second Trump administration this year. In the first 11 months of 2024, West Coast ports handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia, up from 56.5% in 2023, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. The Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma was the first gateway to experience severe congestion last summer due to diversion from Canadian ports, which contended with now-resolved labor issues. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach experienced a 25%-plus year-over-year increase in import volumes for three consecutive months, spawning terminal congestion and several months of extended rail container dwell times. However, the BNSF and Union Pacific railroads had worked through those backlogs by year-end. A look ahead: West Coast ports were relatively fluid entering 2024 and have sufficient capacity to handle the lower cargo volumes forecast for 2025. When the ILA reaches a contract settlement this year, discretionary cargo is expected to return to the East and Gulf coasts. That means cargo flows should return to the normal seasonal trends throughout the year. The main challenge facing West Coast ports in 2025 will be mitigating peak inland point intermodal (IPI) volumes next fall. The industry has come to expect some level of disruptions when IPI traffic surges during peak periods, but port stakeholders learned valuable lessons from the epic meltdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic, and future disruptions should be less intense and shorter than before. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b78cb350-f07f-4a00-9299-490e4013fbeb"></dynamic-object></div>The next inflection: Whereas 2024 was a banner year for US West Coast ports, the pendulum could swing back to the East and Gulf coast ports in 2025. If Trump’s threatened tariffs on China push even more production to Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in 2025, the China-dependent West Coast gateways will lose market share to East Coast ports, which are better suited geographically to handle imports from those regions. If and when hostilities in the Red Sea cease and vessels return to the Suez Canal, West Coast ports could lose additional share. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com.</a></div>

The big picture: US West Coast ports lost some of their share of imports from Asia in 2022–23 during the protracted contract negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and West Coast employers. The tables turned in 2024, when East and Gulf coast dockworkers engaged in contentious contract negotiations of their own and discretionary cargo returned to the West Coast. The main challenge facing West Coast ports entering 2025 will be to mitigate the rail container backlogs that inevitably occur during peak periods when import volumes exceed the railroads’ designed network capacity. A look back: The lengthy and contentious contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and employers on the East and Gulf coasts drove a large volume of discretionary imports to the West Coast in 2024. Frontloading of imports through the West Coast continued last fall in anticipation of the threatened tariffs under a second Trump administration this year. In the first 11 months of 2024, West Coast ports handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia, up from 56.5% in 2023, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. The Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma was the first gateway to experience severe congestion last summer due to diversion from Canadian ports, which contended with now-resolved labor issues. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach experienced a 25%-plus year-over-year increase in import volumes for three consecutive months, spawning terminal congestion and several months of extended rail container dwell times. However, the BNSF and Union Pacific railroads had worked through those backlogs by year-end. A look ahead: West Coast ports were relatively fluid entering 2024 and have sufficient capacity to handle the lower cargo volumes forecast for 2025. When the ILA reaches a contract settlement this year, discretionary cargo is expected to return to the East and Gulf coasts. That means cargo flows should return to the normal seasonal trends throughout the year. The main challenge facing West Coast ports in 2025 will be mitigating peak inland point intermodal (IPI) volumes next fall. The industry has come to expect some level of disruptions when IPI traffic surges during peak periods, but port stakeholders learned valuable lessons from the epic meltdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic, and future disruptions should be less intense and shorter than before. The next inflection: Whereas 2024 was a banner year for US West Coast ports, the pendulum could swing back to the East and Gulf coast ports in 2025. If Trump’s threatened tariffs on China push even more production to Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in 2025, the China-dependent West Coast gateways will lose market share to East Coast ports, which are better suited geographically to handle imports from those regions. If and when hostilities in the Red Sea cease and vessels return to the Suez Canal, West Coast ports could lose additional share. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com.

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Tariffs, Suez resumption could crimp US West Coast share gains

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Pitt Ohio’s acquisition of Sutton Transport is the latest in a string of acquisitions rebuilding the LTL sector from the middle out, and more regional acquisitions are expected.</div>

Pitt Ohio’s acquisition of Sutton Transport is the latest in a string of acquisitions rebuilding the LTL sector from the middle out, and more regional acquisitions are expected.

<div class="phx-topic">The US less-than-truckload (LTL) market is entering a new phase of consolidation in early 2025, led by regional LTL trucking companies building greater density and reach. The action is hottest perhaps in the Midwest, where the shutdown of Holland, a regional subsidiary of Yellow, in 2023 left a hole in the LTL market that has not been filled. There is a need for LTL carriers that can provide premium on-time, next-day service at scale across the region stretching from Ohio and the Great Lakes to the Great Plains. As M&amp;A activity continues, shippers may see regional LTL pricing stabilize or rise, but not drop, as larger carriers impose more disciplined pricing in local and regional markets. And although the LTL landscape may appear crowded, “there is still room in the market for good carriers,” said Mike Moran, president of Moran Transportation, a regional LTL provider based in Chicago. Moran <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/smaller-us-ltl-carriers-increasingly-merging-in-sink-or-swim-market-5783875">acquired RMX Freight Systems</a> in October, adding three Midwestern states to its LTL network. Pitt Ohio Transportation Group’s purchase of Sutton Transport, completed Jan. 1, is the latest in a string of acquisitions. Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. Sutton, with 13 terminals across eight states, will bolster the 10-state network of Dohrn Transfer, a separate Pitt Ohio company that has its headquarters in Rock Island, Illinois. “The trend moving forward is going to be increased growth and scale of LTL operations,” said Geoffrey Muessig, chief marketing officer for Pittsburgh-based Pitt Ohio. Wisconsin-based Sutton will help Pitt Ohio build greater density within Dohrn’s existing market footprint, speeding freight and maintaining fluidity as demand grows — as is expected in 2025. “In the regional LTL market, density improves service and results,” said Muessig. “We saw the opportunity to combine the strengths of the Sutton and Dohrn networks.” Pitt Ohio will employ a “three-pronged” approach to the integration, blending sales first, then technology and ultimately operations, he said, adding: “We’re going to take our time.” <h3>More M&amp;A seen ahead </h3>The Pitt Ohio-Sutton deal won’t be the last significant LTL acquisition this year, according to an LTL freight and parcel market consultant. “Count on at least three smaller regional LTL carriers folding into bigger ones in 2025,” said Satish Jindel, president of transportation research firm SJ Consulting Group, which helped broker the Pitt Ohio-Sutton transaction.Jindel pointed to the Moran-RMX deal as well as Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings’ purchase of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/knight-swift-acquisition-expands-ltl-network-coast-to-coast-5703164">Dependable Highway Express</a> last July as examples of the trend. The Pitt Ohio-Sutton deal is the latest development reshaping LTL networks while helping to broaden the sector’s role in supply chains from ports to last-mile delivery. LTL carriers are broadening their retail, warehousing and specialized services and adding more <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/estes-express-plans-near-port-expansion-as-new-generation-takes-charge-5220656">port transloading business</a>. As shippers work to shorten distances between distribution centers, suppliers and end-customers, LTL carriers see more opportunity to expand beyond their industrial base. The LTL market is already highly consolidated, with the 40 largest LTL providers claiming 84% of total LTL revenue of $62.2 billion in 2023, according to Jindel’s data. The largest Midwestern LTL provider, Dayton Freight System, has about 70 terminals throughout the region and more than $1 billion in annual revenue. Pitt Ohio is the 13th largest US LTL provider ranked by revenue, while Sutton is ranked 31st. Combined, the companies would have had more than $1 billion in revenue in 2023 — coming in just below Dayton Freight in the SJ Consulting Group/Journal of Commerce <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/journal-of-commerce-rankings-ltl-sector-revenue-drops-despite-yellow-distortion-5199865">Top 40 LTL Carrier rankings</a>. “The Top 10 LTL carriers [revenue-wise] are getting bigger, the Top 20 are all aiming to get into the Top 10 and everyone else is scrambling to get into the Top 20,” Muessig said. Larger LTL players have been more focused on growth through real estate purchases, particularly the ongoing auction of hundreds of terminals once operated by Yellow. The bankrupt company still has about 100 leased or owned terminals to auction or sell. Rising operating costs, including the need for more sophisticated technology, are putting more pressure on smaller LTL carriers to find larger partners or purchasers. “I think there’s absolutely going to be more consolidation as the time goes on,” Moran said. Many smaller carriers “are not pricing the freight right,” he said. By that, he means pricing shipments at too low a margin. “After a period of time, they simply can’t survive,” he said. “They need a way out and an acquisition is one.” For that reason, he thinks more regional mergers may be good for the LTL sector in the Midwest and elsewhere, with larger firms imposing more disciplined pricing. “There’s a need for carriers that can provide excellent service at an acceptable price,” Moran said. “‘Acceptable’ is a challenging term at times, depending on whether you’re a carrier or a shipper, but there’s plenty of room out there for good quality carriers.” Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The US less-than-truckload (LTL) market is entering a new phase of consolidation in early 2025, led by regional LTL trucking companies building greater density and reach. The action is hottest perhaps in the Midwest, where the shutdown of Holland, a regional subsidiary of Yellow, in 2023 left a hole in the LTL market that has not been filled. There is a need for LTL carriers that can provide premium on-time, next-day service at scale across the region stretching from Ohio and the Great Lakes to the Great Plains. As M&A activity continues, shippers may see regional LTL pricing stabilize or rise, but not drop, as larger carriers impose more disciplined pricing in local and regional markets. And although the LTL landscape may appear crowded, “there is still room in the market for good carriers,” said Mike Moran, president of Moran Transportation, a regional LTL provider based in Chicago. Moran acquired RMX Freight Systems in October, adding three Midwestern states to its LTL network. Pitt Ohio Transportation Group’s purchase of Sutton Transport, completed Jan. 1, is the latest in a string of acquisitions. Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. Sutton, with 13 terminals across eight states, will bolster the 10-state network of Dohrn Transfer, a separate Pitt Ohio company that has its headquarters in Rock Island, Illinois. “The trend moving forward is going to be increased growth and scale of LTL operations,” said Geoffrey Muessig, chief marketing officer for Pittsburgh-based Pitt Ohio. Wisconsin-based Sutton will help Pitt Ohio build greater density within Dohrn’s existing market footprint, speeding freight and maintaining fluidity as demand grows — as is expected in 2025. “In the regional LTL market, density improves service and results,” said Muessig. “We saw the opportunity to combine the strengths of the Sutton and Dohrn networks.” Pitt Ohio will employ a “three-pronged” approach to the integration, blending sales first, then technology and ultimately operations, he said, adding: “We’re going to take our time.” More M&A seen ahead The Pitt Ohio-Sutton deal won’t be the last significant LTL acquisition this year, according to an LTL freight and parcel market consultant. “Count on at least three smaller regional LTL carriers folding into bigger ones in 2025,” said Satish Jindel, president of transportation research firm SJ Consulting Group, which helped broker the Pitt Ohio-Sutton transaction. Jindel pointed to the Moran-RMX deal as well as Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings’ purchase of Dependable Highway Express last July as examples of the trend. The Pitt Ohio-Sutton deal is the latest development reshaping LTL networks while helping to broaden the sector’s role in supply chains from ports to last-mile delivery. LTL carriers are broadening their retail, warehousing and specialized services and adding more port transloading business . As shippers work to shorten distances between distribution centers, suppliers and end-customers, LTL carriers see more opportunity to expand beyond their industrial base. The LTL market is already highly consolidated, with the 40 largest LTL providers claiming 84% of total LTL revenue of $62.2 billion in 2023, according to Jindel’s data. The largest Midwestern LTL provider, Dayton Freight System, has about 70 terminals throughout the region and more than $1 billion in annual revenue. Pitt Ohio is the 13th largest US LTL provider ranked by revenue, while Sutton is ranked 31st. Combined, the companies would have had more than $1 billion in revenue in 2023 — coming in just below Dayton Freight in the SJ Consulting Group/Journal of Commerce Top 40 LTL Carrier rankings . “The Top 10 LTL carriers [revenue-wise] are getting bigger, the Top 20 are all aiming to get into the Top 10 and everyone else is scrambling to get into the Top 20,” Muessig said. Larger LTL players have been more focused on growth through real estate purchases, particularly the ongoing auction of hundreds of terminals once operated by Yellow. The bankrupt company still has about 100 leased or owned terminals to auction or sell. Rising operating costs, including the need for more sophisticated technology, are putting more pressure on smaller LTL carriers to find larger partners or purchasers. “I think there’s absolutely going to be more consolidation as the time goes on,” Moran said. Many smaller carriers “are not pricing the freight right,” he said. By that, he means pricing shipments at too low a margin. “After a period of time, they simply can’t survive,” he said. “They need a way out and an acquisition is one.” For that reason, he thinks more regional mergers may be good for the LTL sector in the Midwest and elsewhere, with larger firms imposing more disciplined pricing. “There’s a need for carriers that can provide excellent service at an acceptable price,” Moran said. “‘Acceptable’ is a challenging term at times, depending on whether you’re a carrier or a shipper, but there’s plenty of room out there for good quality carriers.” Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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M&A activity redrawing regional LTL map in US Midwest and beyond

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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