Commentary

More than 150 of the single-vessel companies that dominate Germany's shipping fleet, have gone belly-up in the past year. And with charter rates still heading south and banks severing credit lines, the figure could grow by several hundred more within months.

Shippers and logistics companies bear a high degree of risk exposure to intellectual property infringement. To mitigate that risk, it’s a good investment of time and effort to employ the full range of resources available to U.S. companies.

2013 is expected to be another challenging year for the industry. In view of the economic problems plaguing Europe and the U.S., and the moderate-at-best growth predicted for China, along with the significant new capacity due to enter the market, overcapacity remains a major concern for the industry.

The global economy has yet to shake off the fallout from the crisis of 2008-2009 as we move into the fifth year of the outbreak.

As I write this piece for publication this month, I cannot be certain of the outcome of negotiations between the USMX and the ILA, or NYSA and the ILA as these events are currently unfolding. However, I can be certain that when the bargaining is eventually completed, we will be living with a new normalcy in management-labor relations and perhaps with some terminal operations as well. The need for change is so apparent that one way or another change will occur.

According to ESPN, the worst play of the recently completed NFL season was the Thanksgiving Day “butt fumble” engineered by New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez. Despite having a career in which he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, Sanchez was awarded a huge contract before the season started.

The shape of the world economy has truly become a global relationship with every country as a piece of the puzzle.

Industrial real estate markets across North America will post steady growth through 2012.

All things considered, 2013 is on track to resemble what we saw in 2012: economic uncertainty, growth opportunities in emerging markets and a push for an integrated supply chain.

The logistics real estate market in the U.S. fought an uphill battle throughout 2012. Tenants, primarily retailers and third-party logistics providers, absorbed approximately 125 million square feet of space, 35 percent less than 2011. Yet demand has been positive for 10 quarters, and 2013 will bring a nearly forgotten challenge for beneficial cargo owners and other users of large warehouses: a lack of quality space.

One of the major trends in 2013 in American industry and its handmaiden, transportation, will be a surge in insourcing from a trickle to a flood. A number of factors will contribute to production returning to the U.S.

Freight forwarding has been one of the most successful sectors of the global logistics industry over the past decade. The industry has achieved substantial growth due to globalization, which has led manufacturing to locate to remote markets.

Supply chains increasingly are viewed as a key competitive differentiator. Since the recession, shippers have aggressively sought supply chain savings.

2012 began with the global trade interests bracing for economic storms. It ended with a literal storm. As Hurricane Sandy sent waves crashing through homes in much of the U.S. East Coast, airports such as John F. Kennedy and LaGuardia in New York, and Newark Liberty in New Jersey closed. Flights and commerce were grounded.

The outlook for 2013 is sunny in the cloud.

Many of us in the freight transportation industry in general, and the container shipping sector especially, read multiple industry-related publications in an effort to keep up with issues, to try to understand the environment that impacts our daily working lives and, ideally, to help us in our decision making. I’m constantly drawn to numbers because they spin no tales, they have no agenda and they are what they are as long as you know and understand the context.

The industry will face economic challenges again in 2013 as the global economy is expected to continue to grow only modestly.

We have the ocean transportation industry’s version of the “fiscal cliff” for 2013.

I believe the East Coast will begin to see bigger ships calling with greater frequency but at fewer ports; the ocean carriers simply can’t afford not to adapt.

In 2013, we can expect threats to the security of our maritime supply chains, known and unknown, to persist. Changes in maritime security training regimes that will strengthen the professional competence of merchant mariners and port facility personnel to deal with these hazards are under way.

Maersk’s Line CEO Nils Andersen’s remarks that A.P. Moller-Maersk will switch its investment focus from shipping to its oil, drilling rig and ports expansion business surprised many. Maersk, after all, is the largest and, to many, the world’s most successful liner shipping.

Failing to pay attention to a motor carrier’s tariff rules could drastically limit a claim payment.

President Obama is painting a dire picture if the House Republicans don't agree to raise taxes, yet again, to avert sequestration.

The uncertainties from a year ago are still with us in the trans-Pacific market.

Having spent 31 of my 33 professional years on the international side of the shipping industry, moving to the domestic offshore segment has proved similar in some ways and quite different in others. It’s those differences that I believe have caused the Jones Act trades to find themselves in the somewhat controversial positions we’ve read about all too often.

The maritime academies face many challenges in our traditional way of preparing students for careers in the maritime industry: ever-increasing domestic and international regulations (standards, training, certification and watchkeeping; MARPOL; and ballast water, for example); growing demand for online education vs. face-to-face classroom; shrinking state and federal budgets; and the aging state of maritime academy training ships.

The big ship trend shows no sign of slowing.

The two most important changes we believe will affect maritime executive search in the coming year are dramatic shifts in top leadership positions within many of our nation’s seaports and significant growth in the NVOCC and freight forwarding sectors.

I expect three major events in shipping this year.

The shipping market in 2013 may hardly see a fundamental rollover of its current downturn, but the industry will definitely experience a transition that will feature a reshuffling of shipping companies and innovations in their operation and management.

I anticipate our industry will see several changes and forms of evolution this year as all sectors try to find a solid foundation for sustained success. One of the most important developments I suspect we’ll witness will be one of increased internal focus by relevant stakeholders, and that won’t necessarily be detrimental to our industry.

The economic environment remains challenging and volatile. We must use this time to leverage stakeholder management across the supply chain with an emphasis on increased public-private partnerships and strengthened cooperation.

2013 promises to bring considerable uncertainty, as well as opportunity for the shipping and ports sector. While the U.S. economy appears to be on a slow path toward recovery from the Great Recession, Europe and Asia face challenges such that the long-term global trade outlook is for more tempered growth in global trade.

Global Trade Management has been defined as “the total optimization of the end-to-end international supply chain — from product conception to final delivery — with focus on the integration of regulatory, strategic and system components to ensure a seamless, secure and cost-effective flow of goods, data and payments across international borders.” In other words, GTM is a holistic approach of managing all of these separate, disparate tasks as a single seamless process.

A few weeks ago an intermodal executive asked me a question to the effect of, “Where should we be headed?” As I talked out my answer and the rationale, it occurred to me that on the surface I sounded cringingly mundane, my observation the type that could have been made in 1995, 2007 or today.

Global economic uncertainty and excess shipping capacity are two key factors that will drive the maritime industry in 2013.

The maritime sector has seen substantial recovery in trade volumes since the dark days of late 2008. This fact appears to support the notion that world trade, while not immune from cyclical economic downturns or temporary disruptions in trade finance, is very much on a trajectory for healthy growth.

The success of the coming year depends largely upon the global economic climate.

We are entering a new, Big Ship era for the port industry.

Those ports across the nation not blessed with naturally deep harbors are in a race to either benefit from an expanded Panama Canal or sit on the sidelines while their competitors reap the rewards.